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gyomu

5,510 karma · joined December 11, 2023

former startup founder now living the indie life
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gyomu··on Sora 2
> humans will work on better problems than performing repeated tasks on an assembly line or flipping burgers.

Haha. The current wave of “careers we couldn’t think of” that tech companies have created include being Uber/Doordash/Amazon delivery drivers, data labelers for training AIs, moderator to prevent horrific content spreading on social networks,… with way weaker social benefits & protections than the blue collar jobs of old they replaced.

So yeah, I have a hard time buying this fantasy of everyone doing some magical fulfilling work while AI does all the ugly work, especially when every executive out there is plainly stating that their ideal outcome is replacing 90% of their workforce with AI.

With the way things are headed, AI will take over large economic niches, and humans will fill in at the edges doing the grimy things AI can’t do, with ever diminishing social mobility and safety nets while AI company executives become trillionaires.

gyomu··on Sora 2
> This is not the final target

The final target of these "world models" on a 20 year horizon is entirely unmanned factories taking over the economy, and swarm of drones and robots fighting wars and policing citizens.

This is why hundreds of billions are poured into these things, cute Ghibli style videos and vacuum robots wouldn't be worth this much money otherwise.

gyomu··on AI tools I wish existed
There's some sort of fundamental category mistake going on with thinking like this.

Most of the items in this list fall prey to it, but it is maybe best exemplified by this one:

> A writing app that lets you “request a critique” from a bunch of famous writers. What would Hemingway say about this blog post? What did he find confusing? What did he like?

Any app that ever claimed to tell you what "Hemingway would say about this blog post" would evidently be lying — it'd be giving you what that specific AI model generates in response to such a prompt. 100 models would give you 100 answers, and none of them could claim to actually "say what Hemingway would've said". It's not as if Hemingway's entire personality and outlooks are losslessly encoded into the few hundreds of thousands of words of writing/speech transcripts we have from him, and can be reconstructed by a sufficiently beefy LLM.

So in effect it becomes an exercise of "can you fool the human into thinking this is a plausible thing Hemingway would've said".

The reason why you would care to hear Hemingway's thought on your writing, or Steve Jobs' thoughts on your UI design, is precisely because they are the flesh-and-bone, embodied versions of themselves. Anything else is like trying to eat a picture of a sandwich to satisfy your hunger.

There's something unsettling that so many people cannot seem to cut clearly through this illusion.

gyomu··on Spending time with the material
> It comes down to speed: show me the simulated, high-res book with pages I can handle and access exactly as fast as the real physical book in my real physical hands, and we can begin the conversation. The video game players will want to say “easy, no problem”, but a moment’s reflection — how do I hold a book in my hands? What do I do with it? What kind of physical feedback does that require? — reveals that it is, in fact, a huge problem.

That's a part of the equation for sure.

The other one that I keep coming back to is how the object captures your attention, and what it does/doesn't do to steer it, and what affordances it offers for it to flit to something else.

On a digital general purpose device, you are always one swipe, one notification banner away, from jumping into whatever other activity you want. Closing a book, putting it away, grabbing the TV remote, turning on the TV inherently has much more friction than swiping right on the home bar out of a reader app and straight into Tiktok.

This is why single purpose devices like eReaders are compelling - while they do not address this first half of the equation the author mentions, they do address the second half.

(but of course a beautiful object of a book will always command attention more effectively than the exact same book, but in PDF form on a tablet)

To try and and attempt an analogy, it's like trying to cook a healthy meal when you have a fridge only stocked with veggies/fish, vs one that maybe has some veggies at the back but also tons of snacks and instant food at the front.

We like to think we are masters of our attention and willpower, but as many already know it's really the environment does a large chunk of the deciding for us. If you want to make more intentional decisions, your first order of business should be to shape your environment (a hack monks have known for millenia).

gyomu··on EPA tells some scientists to stop publishing studies
> I'm pretty sure they know how coal is mined. They must surely have heard about the black lung disease and COPD

They do not, they have not, and they do not care. Those people livre purely in the world of words and rhetoric, where the only thing that matters is whether what you say gets a reaction out of people that will lead to you getting more power. Truth is what sounds good.

I know, as a rational educated person it is terrifying to realize that there are human beings who score 0% on the “cares about science and logic and history and truth” scales, but that is the beauty and horror of the human condition - there are many, many people out there whose thinking and mode of operation will be entirely alien to you.

> Can somebody explain the psychology behind these beliefs?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Après_moi,_le_déluge

gyomu··on Failing to Understand the Exponential, Again
> Instead, even a relatively conservative extrapolation of these trends suggests that 2026 will be a pivotal year for the widespread integration of AI into the economy:

> Models will be able to autonomously work for full days (8 working hours) by mid-2026. At least one model will match the performance of human experts across many industries before the end of 2026.

> By the end of 2027, models will frequently outperform experts on many tasks.

First commandment of tech hype: the pivotal, groundbreaking singularity is always just 1-2 years away.

I mean seriously, why is that? Even when people like OP try to be principled and use seemingly objective evaluation data, they find that the BIG big thing is 1-2 years away.

Self driving cars? 1-2 years away.

AR glasses replacing phones? 1-2 years away.

All of us living our life in the metaverse? 1-2 years away.

Again, I have to commend OP on putting in the work with the serious graphs, but there’s something more at play here.

Is it purely a matter of data cherry picking? Is it the unknowns unknowns leading to the data driven approaches being completely blind to their medium/long term limitations?

gyomu··on Suno Studio, a Generative AI DAW
> as a consumer I could care less if you put your soul and years into producing art

> my favorite genre is new jack swing

My friend, where do you think your favorite genre that AI is now parroting comes from…

gyomu··on Reverse-Engineering the LCD Display Interface of the Nest 2nd Gen Thermostat
Is there some sort of ideological imperative to use every single pixel? If your product design doesn’t call for it because of low information density, who cares.
gyomu··on ChatGPT Pulse
Their point is that ChatGPT is clearly maximizing for engagement with the product, rather than working as a straightforward tool that aims to solve your problem at hand as fast and efficiently as possible.

The decision to begin every response with “that’s a fascinating observation” and end every response with “want me to do X?” is a clear decision by PMs at OpenAI.

Poster is questioning what might motivate those decisions.

gyomu··on The Digital Markets Act: time for a reset
"The biggest startup ideas are terrifying. And not just because they'd be a lot of work. The biggest ideas seem to threaten your identity: you wonder if you'd have enough ambition to carry them through [...] The best ideas are just on the right side of impossible."

https://www.paulgraham.com/ambitious.html

gyomu··on The Digital Markets Act: time for a reset
If we’re talking about a reset, then the EU should ban Google/Apple/Amazon/Huawei/Xiaomi/Meta/etc products and services in their entirety, and finance/incentivize local companies to provide replacements.

As a EU citizen I don’t see why those companies should have the disproportionate amount of control and oversight in our daily lives they have today while our bureaucracies are stuck in a constant game of cat and mouse against them, as they have proven countless times they see EU regulation as hurdles to be worked around rather than fundamental rules to play by.

gyomu··on The Word Made Lifeless. Are we becoming stochastic parrots?
You are a hydraulic system. You are composed of interlinked pipes within which the pressure rises and lowers in order to produce all your thoughts and actions.

You are a chemical soup. Your body is a closed system of proteins and amino acids reacting with each other, driving behavior in order to sustain the reactions.

You are an electric grid. A system of interconnected wires where electric impulses respond to one another in a synchronized manner, from which your life force is derived.

gyomu··on EU age verification app not planning desktop support
It is insane to read Deleuze, Baudrillard, Debord, etc. in 2025. Just insanely prescient, and the perfect illustration that being able to describe and anticipate problems is nowhere near sufficient to solve them.
gyomu··on Android users can now use conversational editing in Google Photos
(this is from the original Blade Runner, for anyone wondering)

I love this being quoted here because while it superficially seems that this interaction is interacting with an AI in a conversational way, it shows tool use that is at the opposite end of what interacting with modern AI tends to be like/what AI marketing wants it to be.

In this scene:

- the user is guiding the tool step by step to a desired outcome, rather than giving a broad vague result that the tool gets to arbitrarily

- the user knows intimately the specific technical capabilities of the tool

- every command is phrased to be unambiguous and lead to a deterministic result

Imagine if instead all of the above, Deckard just gave a broad request, eg “can you help me find who the killer is by analyzing this picture”?

gyomu··on South Korea's President says US investment demands would spark financial crisis
> The only hope we have is that the current bout of madness in Washington DC is a one time aberration, but who knows!

I’ve been hearing people pray this is a one time aberration for the last 10 years. At this point, the ride seems way more likely to get bumpier than not for the next 10 years.

gyomu··on I forced myself to spend a week in Instagram instead of Xcode
I don't see any lies in the screenshots from the original article being discussed here.

They are a staged conversation with a contact named "Speedometer FAQ" - not pretending like it's with a real person, or real customer testimonials.

If it makes you feel better, you could put "simulated text messages" at the bottom of such images.

gyomu··on I forced myself to spend a week in Instagram instead of Xcode
Welcome to promoting your product baby. No one cares if it's fake or not except the little voice in your head.

If you can post fake messages today that promote your product and will start getting you users, why wait for real users to provide real testimonials that align with what you want to communicate to do the same thing 3 months from now?

Of course you want to seek out real testimonials from satisfied customers and share those as much as you can; you don't want to lock yourself in a bubble where you post how amazing your app is while emails of dissatisfied users pile up in your inbox; but it's not an OR situation, it's an AND situation.

You might also be surprised to hear that the family laughing together while drinking Coca Cola in those video ads isn't a real family, they're not really having fun, and they're not really enjoying Coca Cola for the sake of it - they're on a filming set in front of a green screen paid by the hour.

gyomu··on iFixit iPhone Air teardown
This ship has sailed, 90% of the population uses their phone as their primary computing device, and wants large screens.

In fact an increasing number of people seem to want 2 large screens in their phone.

gyomu··on iFixit iPhone Air teardown
What a weird argument, Apple ships tons of AirPods and MacBooks with hinges, not counting accessories like the iPad keyboard (introduced after AirPods) or display stands.

A hinged iPhone seems totally in the cards.

gyomu··on David Lynch LA House
> Truly a peaceful property

What you don’t realize if you’ve never spent time around those ridiculous properties is the amount of upkeep everything takes if you don’t want the indoors to become gross and dusty and the outdoors a wild jungle.

When you have that kind of surface area, you’re not taking care of all the cleaning and maintenance yourself in a few hours once a week. There are countless gardeners/cleaners/repair workers/etc on the property. Nothing peaceful about it.

And you have to also be okay with the labor dynamics of employing such an army of personnel which in LA is… interesting.

gyomu··on Rules for creating good-looking user interfaces
Underrated comment; way too many designers still approach software design as a visual exercise similar to designing a static composition that looks beautiful in marketing materials; but software is all about data structures and what operations people are going to want to do on them.

So much software these days doesn’t let me do things like “do Z on all Xs matching Y”, instead forcing me to repeat the same slow sequence of actions over and over (swipe, tap button; wait for animation to finish. Go back, swipe, tap button; wait for animation to finish. Go back, swipe, …)

gyomu··on Apple Photos app corrupts images
> the camera manual addresses that "USB transfers aren’t guaranteed in some setups"

That is a... pretty damning thing to have in your user manual. I've owned many cameras over the years, and I don't think I've ever seen a manufacturer hedge basic functionality like this.

gyomu··on When the job search becomes impossible
"But the truth — despite the unique challenges that accompany majority stakes in the world’s resources — is that most of the ultrarich seem to die bloodless, unperturbed deaths, and at advanced ages [...] The Dead Billionaires of 2022–23 enjoyed an average lifespan of almost 86 years, outperforming average Americans by more than ten years."
gyomu··on When the job search becomes impossible
All former US presidents who died in the 21st century died well over the age of 90.

Don't underestimate what access to the best medical care in the world will do, regardless of your lifestyle.

gyomu··on The Mac app flea market
I have a somewhat popular (yet still niche) app in the store, when I first launched it it was the only result. There are now a number of copycats. Report filed with Apple, nothing was done.

I’m considering spending the $1k or so to file a trademark on the name, maybe it’ll actually make them do something? The app isn’t making crazy amounts by far, but enough that $1k could be justifiable. If anyone has been through this I’d love to hear their thoughts.

For what it’s worth I know my product is clearly better - my users tell me - but it’s infuriating to see a knockoff show up before my app in the search results when I tell someone to look up the app in the store.

gyomu··on Cannabis use associated with quadrupled risk of developing type 2 diabetes
Plenty of bad things that are no fun (microplastics, air pollution, pesticides in food, ...) that are near impossible to escape, so don't deprive yourself of the fun stuff (with moderation).
gyomu··on Japan sets record of nearly 100k people aged over 100
They are not within 10% of each other when you consider human mortality rates.

Ie if you live to 100, you do not have 10% chance of living to 110.

Eg this study says:

"Three percent of females and 1% of males in the 2019 birth cohort, given age-specific mortality rates in that year, are projected to survive to 100 years old. Only 0.4% of females and 0.09% of males will survive to 105 years which is 10 times rarer than survival to 100. Survival to 110 years is 150 times rarer for females and 333 times rarer for males (0.02% for females, 0.003% for males) than living to 100. "

https://www.bumc.bu.edu/centenarian/statistics/

gyomu··on Doorbell prankster that tormented residents of apartments turns out to be a slug
Yep, a very common story. Or someone whose parents pass away, they take a few months to put affairs in order and start selling the house, only to find out the house is now being squatted and they have a nightmare to deal with.

But somehow people much prefer the “bohemian squatters sticking it to greedy capitalistic landlords who don’t use their property” narrative.

gyomu··on The elegance of movement in Silksong
Most of the pogos don't require the full diagonal range, you can just trigger the attack when you're really close to the target, which makes it almost a regular downwards jump.
gyomu··on The elegance of movement in Silksong
Everyone repeats this, but is there any information that confirms it?

Yes, it started as a DLC for Hollow Knight - but the devs have known for the past 5 years that it would be a standalone sequel. Is there any evidence that they designed it as "extended content for people who had already beaten the secret harder stuff", rather than approached it as a game on its own right?

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