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guimarin

988 karma · joined November 9, 2010

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guimarin··on AI vs. MD: what happens when the diagnosis is automated
I care a lot about outcomes at the individual level. I worry that with these systems, generally health will improve because there will be a level of standardization, but specifically it will get worse. An analogy for me is with furniture, but you could also substitute financial advice. In furniture we can get a 'quality' table from Ikea for a couple hundred bucks, and we can make 10s of thousands of them. But it's much much harder to get a reasonably priced custom table. 200 years ago when a lot more people spent time building wooden ships, it was much easier to get a carpenter to build a table/furniture at a relatively affordable price point. Now that comparatively orders of magnitude of fewer people are in the practice, the price for that furniture, or custom cabinets, etc. at the same quality level has skyrocketed. In financial advice, the rise of algorithms doing things like asset allocation has caused an entire generation of financial planners to never be hired, and therefore never trained. The old financial planners who do much more than asset allocation are becoming rarer and rarer and no one is replacing them. In 20 years, I firmly believe the specifics of my tax situation, etc will be more difficult to solve than today because I will have a harder time finding this kind of specialized expertise. I see the same in medicine and every other field which low-end machines doing the low-end work. We're not training the future high-level practitioners because they need those 10,000 hours or whatever to become super experts. How long will it take before the machine catches up with the best humans is really the question here.
guimarin··on Republicans hope to overturn internet privacy rules
I don't know about your comparison. Scientifically speaking Google search results and Bing's are nearly identical. And this is born out in the fact that Google's cost of acquiring traffic is going up while their ad CPMs on search are going down. They've been disguising it by increasing ad units on the search pages, oftentimes breaking their own ad placement guidelines. That Google's search is commoditized is the entire reason why Google became Alphabet and has been cleaning house on all their frivolous products. To be clear, Bing doesn't have the brand Google has, but in terms of the actual technical result of the product, it is virtually identical. The other issue with your comparison as approached above, is that comcast and the other ISPs have gov't granted monopolies, and end users cannot move to another carrier. They were granted these in exchange for building out massive cable/broadband networks with hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars. What happened is that the regulators fell asleep at the wheel or turned a blind eye and almost none of that money was actually spent upgrading the network.
guimarin··on How Children Lost the Right to Roam in Just 4 Generations
I think there are a lot more roads/freeways now than back then as other commenters have pointed out. We've built our cities for cars, not for people. One possible side-effect of self driving cars, is it may make it safer for kids to wander again. I know I'd love to just attach a GPS tracker to my now 1yr old daughter in 5 years, and let her go where she pleases here in SF.
guimarin··on Secret docs reveal: an FBI with vast hidden powers
gov't is currently optimized with only two of three core primitives (literacy+numeracy). Gov't like all institutions will be re-developed with the relatively (50years) new primitive, computeracy. Nothing like automation and disagregated decision making exists in the corporate bureaucracy of government today. If you want more outcome, you literally have to hire more ppl. There is no software leverage in government. Changing that changes everything. Our problem is we are alive at a time similar to when literacy became possible for everyone. It's very obvious that institutions not built on literacy would change, but it took nearly 100 years.
guimarin··on Waymo: Google's self-driving car company
Tesla recovers a lot more of the individual vehicle cost as future R&D than Mercedes. That's probably a good thing as they are a start-up and Mercedes is a company delivering a few orders of magnitude more cars. Don't think it's a valid comparison though to say that Tesla is putting the money into tech and mercedes isn't.

Rather, Mercedes has access to better credit terms and availability than Tesla because they produce 100x more cars per year. And because of that, they don't need to recoup future R&D money from current cars. Ergo when you buy an expensive mercedes, more money goes into the car you bought than future cars.

guimarin··on Waymo: Google's self-driving car company
The industry will change/disappear overnight. Trucking will be 4x cheaper with 2x the transportation capacity when you remove the trucker. Doesn't matter how much unionized, etc. the industry is now. No group survives that.
guimarin··on Waymo: Google's self-driving car company
Yes. most people when confronted with the choice of a cheap shared ride, or the convenience of their own vehicle will choose a cheap shared ride. The cost on a per mile basis, will be close to 10x cheaper. I predict even you will change-over when confronted with that kind of choice. It seems inevitable.
guimarin··on New York City mapped its trees and calculated each one’s economic benefits
so, is there a consulting question in here somewhere... If there are X trees in NYC/SF, and each tree can stay alive if only peed on by 100 dogs per week, how many dogs are in those cities?
guimarin··on Evidence points to another leaker at the NSA
Intel Actice Management Technology fits the bill[1]. An out of band processor on select chips. Most likely it's on all the chips and only activated for consumers on the vPro and certain Xeon models.

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_Active_Management_Techno...

guimarin··on U.S. Army fudged its accounts by trillions of dollars, auditor finds
YES. and that's the story that should be highlighted, not some asininely huge number from a shitty accounting implementation. That we are off by more than 10% of the Military budget and 1.8% of the total US budget is nuts.

Unrelated: but after Clapper I don't know how anyone has any faith in the US Gov't. this is just another reinforcement.

guimarin··on U.S. Army fudged its accounts by trillions of dollars, auditor finds
bingo, this is an asinine way to do bookkeeping. And reuters shouldn't report based on this kind of waterfall problem. The issue is we're off by ~65B which is over 10% of the budget. That's the scandal someone is misdirecting away from. I want to change the parent to, I get you want to clickbait but seriously??
guimarin··on U.S. Army fudged its accounts by trillions of dollars, auditor finds
I'm not confused. The article states that they had 2.8T in adjustments on a ~500B budget. That is totally insane. That the aggregate averages of all those adjustments are 500% of each and every adjustment is inconceivable. Even the most incompetent organizations are not off by that kind of percentage over ALL of their adjustments.
guimarin··on U.S. Army fudged its accounts by trillions of dollars, auditor finds
I'm all about gov't waste, and oh my god numbers are hard, but pretty sure they fudged it by Billions not Trillions. In the article they mention that the total true-up of all the problems was ~65B. So this headline is off by a couple orders of magnitude.
guimarin··on New “Leaf” Is More Efficient Than Natural Photosynthesis
This seems like it would work much better on Submarines. You could concoct a Nuclear Submarine that never needs to surface!
guimarin··on Seagate Introduces a 60TB SSD – Is a 3.6PB Storage Pod Next?
buried the lede quite a bit in this article. Toshiba announces 100TB drive: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/08/10/toshiba_100tb_qlc_ss...
guimarin··on Apple Taps Bob Mansfield to Oversee Car Project
I've thought a lot about this and don't think that full autonomy is necessary for Apple's car to be successful. I don't even think they need to be anywhere near as good as Tesla. In fact, they probably can't because Tesla Autopilot gets better through the experience of the cars, and that kind of software data expertise is not in Apple's wheelhouse.

Recently I've tested all the auto-sensing, autopilot, and what not features of the latest generation of cars. I've gone on dozens of test drives and I think that something around as good as Honda Sensing will be sufficient for the next car cycle (5-7 years). If they can make iterative improvments that will be even better, but I don't think we are as close to the kind of car Apple would want to sell in the autonomy field. Well understood driving cities like NYC and SF are just not a big enough splash for Apple.

Why Apple will be very successful: Recently they've started to revamp and expand their retail Flagship stores all over the world have recently been remodeled, all to be much larger. I think this footprint of stores, larger than Teslas, will be huge in getting people to buy the cars, thereby circumventing the dealership model. Tesla was the pioneer here, and Apple will ride on their coattails. Apple has incredibly supply chain leverage and capability. In the last 5 years, the cost of batteries has gone down significantly. Yet all the hybrid cars utilizing batteries are still very expensive. The brand new Volvo XC90 is $20k more expensive for a 9kWh pack. With Apple's supply chain and margin control capabilities, they should be able to comfortably source Li-Ion batteries in the $200-$300 range per kWh. Apple also crushes every single other computer and phone manufacturer when it comes to their onboarding experience. This and their experience in UI/UX will be key. The knob-less experience in cars is total dogshit. No one does a good job of realizing that the user experience should not be a monolithic touchscreen for things that are NOT media related. Sure make all Media touchscreen enabled/driven. But not the AC/Heat, and in my mind the volume for the AV system at the lest. If apple can solve that, and make it easy to pair a phone with the infotainment system, then with their competitive pricing and superior experience they will destroy the competition. All the legacy manufacturers are still stuck in the wrong paradigm. Only Tesla is positioned to compete with Apple, it's a shame they didn't buy Tesla earlier and let Musk run both companies. Tim is great don't get me wrong, but with Musk at the helm they would have been totally unstoppable. Tim is a genius at what he does, but he's not the kind of visionary CEO that can launch the car like an Elon or Steve could.

guimarin··on The TV Industry Will Unravel Faster Than People Think
Ahh, I see that now, Thank you! I went off the spelling and the link from the Medium article.
guimarin··on The TV Industry Will Unravel Faster Than People Think
I am not able to load chedder.com, hopefully they can bounce back relatively quickly. [1]

Generally, I think this is a pretty good analysis. I think that it's very difficult to predict when this shift is going to happen though. Clearly the demographics are not in traditional TVs favor, but there are still significant lock-in effects due to sports and other live events. There is also a tremendous amount of media content that is owned by these traditional networks, and on top of that they seem to be verticalizing.

As a milllenial, I don't have a cable TV subscription, I pay for Netflix/Amazon due to the amazing original content and the non-stupid delivery on my internet devices. I do watch a ton of TV shows through 'alternative' means. For live sports, I either opt-out of the sport altogether, go to a bar, or go to excruciating lengths to pick up an online stream. There is no easy way to be a cord cutter due to a cluster-f* of blackouts, poor distribution systems, and ancient players trying desperately to cling to their old business models. My household is probably worth another $20-$50 a month for a competent streaming service. I will check out Cheddar. I'm also not alone, basically everyone in my income, age, and geographic breakdown is the same.

1. I work for the CDN Fastly, if you are from Chedder we can help get your site back online, email me at [myusername] @ fastly.com if you need assistance.

guimarin··on Qualcomm KeyMaster keys extracted directly from TrustZone
I hope there is a way to patch this remotely. TrustZone is on quite a few devices today.[1]

If it's not, well, uhh, yeah this is kind of a problem.

1. http://www.arm.com/products/processors/technologies/trustzon...

guimarin··on Apple, Microsoft, and Google hold 23% of all U.S. corporate cash
I don't see why I would pay 35% of my holdings to avoid having to pay 3%.

Also your plan is impossible because it's not Apple or Facebook or Google the US listed entities that own this money, it's independent country specific subsidiaries. The US Gov't has no territorial claim on their asset reserves. The fact that the big companies report the money as their own is a GAAP sleight of hand that everyone knows already understands both sides of in the marketplace.

guimarin··on Apple, Microsoft, and Google hold 23% of all U.S. corporate cash
3.) I'll take that position. Tax repatriation holiday please!

Money is only useful at a macro scale if it's in motion. These cash reserves are worthless if they just accumulate. Better to take them back into the US, and be distributed as dividends to shareholders or through buy backs than to leave them.

If that money could be invested internationally it would, and so basically the mere fact that the money is sitting idle in the bahamas is a huge vote of no-confidence in the other economies of the world. Every once and a while you used to see the big companies buy stupid expensive office space in London and other European/asian cities that were experiencing real estate growth. We see that less now probably because they are already well allocated in that asset class.

Now you may be thinking, well if it's better to take the money home then leave it sitting there for a decade, consider the following. If you repatriate the money and pay anywhere near the 35% corporate tax rate to do so you have to invest it in the US for at least 5 years with a 10% rate of return before you get back to what you had held internationally. Outside the fact that this is basically impossible to do with hundreds of billions of dollars... Absolutely no quarterly venture (wall street) is going to be allowed to do that, they will be sued into oblivion by their shareholders just for trying. Especially since the US regularly holds repatriation holidays. The only tenable long-term solution to this problem is to not tax corporate earnings from overseas. Tax them through individuals later, but not the corps. Otherwise Apple could exist in one form or another for 100 years with 100s billions of dollars just sitting overseas. Of course people who don't understand economics will argue that this is defrauding the US gov't of legitimate tax revenue, but my argument is the US is not the jurisdiction in which this money was earned, so it should see none of it.

guimarin··on Fast.com: Netflix internet connection speed test
Thanks for the tip. In this case the JS is performing a very important function, helping us to measure distances to multiple pops, so it is better to stay in. I will forward your point about the domain, but I think there is a reason for that particular domain.
guimarin··on Fast.com: Netflix internet connection speed test
I work for the CDN Fastly and we have something very similar to Fast.com.

fastly-debug.com.

The goal of our site is to gather debug information but I use it as a reliable speed-test to a good portion of the internet's websites. I think this is a good tool like fast.com because unlike the 'official' speedtest sites, if you optimize ours or Fast's you're actually making the internet much faster for a lot of sites for users.

guimarin··on San Francisco Is Requiring Solar Panels on All New Buildings
About 2 years ago we paid $2k to have a solar study done on our house. This is just one data point but the results of that study and Google Sunroof are an order of magnitude apart. And this was from a solar company trying to sell us solar panels.
guimarin··on San Francisco Is Requiring Solar Panels on All New Buildings
This is wrong. Both the students at Cornell and Ithaca university got wealthier, and more people moved to the area/stayed as a result of the schools expanding over the last 20 years. There was a natural increase in demand, which resulted in new construction, and which ALSO resulted in higher rents. If housing in Ithaca had kept up with demand prices would not have exceeded inflation and quality of the unit.
guimarin··on San Francisco Is Requiring Solar Panels on All New Buildings
This viewpoint is 100% not supported with evidence from any jurisdiction on the planet. The only way to lower rents/costs for the poor without disastrous social consequences is to increase supply of market rate units. There is not other solution which works.
guimarin··on San Francisco Is Requiring Solar Panels on All New Buildings
I did a very nice researched blog post on how to solve homelessness in SF and then decided not to publish it. The problem is that I'm very analytical and logical about solutions to social problems and most people, including the internet mobs, are not. It's very difficult to convince people that what they are doing in the short term is actually disastrous when the thing they are doing satisfies an emotional need they have now. The best we can do is make arguments that shift the burden of responsibility from one civic agency to another.

To answer homelessness, we need to understand the responsibilities of our civic institutions, the limits of their theoretical jurisdictions and the underlying causes of homelessness. Ultimately, your view on who is responsible stems from your understanding of the purpose of different forms of government. My views start from a strict constitutionalist point and then evolve as various judicial outcomes have moved the goalposts.

guimarin··on San Francisco Is Requiring Solar Panels on All New Buildings
This is pretty typical of SF. Try and solve a problem they are not well suited to solve at the city level. SF has a ton of Fog, building solar panels would not be as beneficial to the city as increasing density and allowing people to have roof-decks.

Another great example is homelessness. Homelessness is actually something which should be addressed at the Federal (for Veterans) and State (for people who should receive medical help) levels, not the city. Oh well.

The end result of this solar initiative will be to increase costs for the poor. The 'real' solution is for CA gov't to stipulate that all dwellings of X and Y quality that receive Z amounts of sunlight are required to offset A% of their annual energy consumption with Solar/wind energy. You can either build it on your own home or buy a share in a solar/wind farm.

guimarin··on Hamilton to stay on $10; Tubman replacing Jackson
I doubt it's just red tape. More likely there is invested capital that has to be EOL, and they wrap up all the changes across the stack in one place. Counterfeiting is sexy, so it's the excuse. But really it's a calculation based on depreciation and lifecycle management.
guimarin··on Let's Get Organized and Fix Housing Affordability in San Francisco
The difference is that servers don't self organize, they are static. People on the other hand make things happen. Relatively few small changes have outsized impacts because our current status quo is so optimized for the existing ruleset.
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