gregorythecat

Google et al are no saints. However, I can’t help but feel like all this misdirection and grandstanding is the establishment’s territorial reaction against the rise of another powerful opponent.

Whoever wins we lose.

FB’s ARPU in US in 2019 was $112. Google’s was $256.

By comparison, paid services would cost $30/month. You might be willing to pay that, but many will not. People already share Netflix accounts or bootleg their friend’s HBO accounts.

I think a shift to paid services is _possible_ but I won’t bet on it. The economics and market forces that brought us metered data and text usage haven’t really changed. Destroying the advertising-supported offerings will not spawn competition overnight. But in any case I think the big players are positioned to weather the changes.

And by the way, $30/month/user is an average. If you are have high disposable income you are likely netting FB et al more than that.

SKAdNetwork is severely restrictive. In my group we’re still forecasting a major hit to our ability to perform attribution or lift analysis.

Don’t assume I’m against that from the perspective of a netizen. I too grew up reading slashdot and idolizing the FSF. I’m just pointing out this well could be the death knell of SWE as we know it.

I will definitely miss the ridiculous TC fueled by the ad-laden web, but at least maybe I won’t work alongside physics and math phds on optimizing clicks....

I believe it will still comprise a reduction in their revenue. The internet as a whole will be less profitable, and only the big players will be able to survive.

Maybe with time there can be a shift in the economics, but I would not bet on it. I can’t imagine people will start paying for email, search, music streaming...

To be honest, as an internet user, nothing of value will be lost. Wikipedia will survive, my favorite torrent tracker will persist, and so on. But as a SWE who has grown fat on the advertising largesse, I will suffer. And so will most of you.

Given the attitude on HN about iOS14, I don’t think most here grasp the implication of gutting ad attribution. All publishers (news sites, indie games, etc) are going to see huge drops in CPM. It could easily be a business ending shift.

Sure removing IDFA will help protect user privacy, but let’s not kid ourselves that there will not be collateral damage. Being a third party publisher will be that much harder and walled gardens (FB, Google, Instagram) will be further cemented as the only viable business model.