Renew it for 10 years, then set an annual reminder to renew it for 1 year to the reach maximum 10 years again. This way you have a 9 year grace period if you miss any given year.
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> Philosopher Jeremy Bentham argued that if two kids playing hopscotch or push-pin are gaining as much joy and pleasure as someone reading poetry, they have enjoyed as much utility.
> John Stuart Mill took a different approach. He argued, “it is better to be a human being dissatisfied than a pig satisfied; better to be Socrates dissatisfied than a fool satisfied. And if the fool, or the pig, are of a different opinion, it is because they only know their own side of the question.”
1. https://seths.blog/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/stop-stealing-...
He's been working on it for years and talks about it a lot on his podcast: https://techzinglive.com
Edit: The link to use the beta software is here with more details on how the system works: https://www.mathacademy.us/beta-test-information
But if you look at the past, the broad trend is continual improvement. If you were alive at any point in the past, I'm sure you could have also pointed to dozens of examples of why to be pessimistic – even over the course of years, decades, centuries at some point, especially in the distant past.
I don't think you've outlined reasons to be pessimistic about the future, just examples of things that may not be so good. IMO reasons to be pessimistic would be more fundamental about why the future will be different from the past.
Your point about 'outlining some positive vision of the world we're building with a rough idea of how to get there' is also misguided. That’s generally not how progress happens beyond a certain scale and over long periods of time.
Complex systems aren't designed, they evolve. What we do have is millions of brilliant people across an ever-increasing number of different specialties who may have visions of how to progress their corner of human knowledge in inches. That all that comes together, with varying levels of success, to make the future. Sometimes we take steps back, but the trend is always forward, because that’s what humans do.
But to your deeper point, none of it is predetermined and it is up to us to make it happen. And therein lies my answer to your question: The human drive towards progress is what got us here and I have no reason to believe it has fundamentally changed enough to make me pessimistic.
It's current targeting students, but works well for adults too. There is no better online math training around, and it goes up to graduate level math.
The founder talks about it regularly on his podcast and it's pretty amazing to hear the progress and how comprehensive it is: https://techzinglive.com
In the last couple years Ben added a private podcast stream with audio versions of his newsletters, which has been a huge quality of life improvement for me. I wish more newsletters did this, I would happily pay more.
Keeping up on reading newsletters was fine when I used to travel a lot, but now (with kids, post-COVID) I generally just consume the audio version while driving, working out, etc.
This would also makes sense since it's near impossible to accurately describe a future that hasn't arrived yet. Few of us will predict it, but it'll all make sense in retrospect.
Yes my wife has had the same trouble putting stuff online: much effort to put it online without the inventory depth to make it worth it.
I'm in a similar spot--my wife bought a retail business (gift shop + dress boutique) with her sister around 2018. My tech background made some things easier, like modernizing how they operate (bluetooth scanners, iPads, inventory management vs. the old clunky stuff that was in place).
Retail is a hard way to make a dollar, but very interesting -- I manage the business's finances and bought the commercial building they operate out of (and rent it to their business at a loss), so I've been learning a lot. For context, the business has grown ~30% YoY the last few years. But to continue growth I think we'll need to expand business online (90%+ of sales are in person).
"Sell online" seems harder and harder these days due to the competition--building to thrive in brick and mortar is different than online. During COVID they started weekly Facebook live shows which do well, but the audience is mostly local.
Since it is a brick and mortar businesses they already have processes for inventory, etc. in place with thousands of SKU's and are next door to the local post office, so I think there are some opportunities to leverage that into unique business opportunities. For example, they are a gift shop and specialize in helping people find gifts. What if they turned that into a service where people submit who they need a gift for + their budget and the store sends a gift to the person?
If I ever take a few months off I'd probably spend time thinking about how to leverage the unique advantages of old-school brick and mortar businesses like this.
It also offer a subscription for updates, but I wouldn't recommend it. I canceled mine last year since 1) updates aren't frequent and 2) after initial setup I don't plan on changing much since the initial template purchase serves us perfectly well, which is why I highly recommend it.
- A large water bottle. I don't drink enough water and this has been game changing for me. I first got a 1 gallon (which I never finished) water bottle but learned that .5 gallon is the right size and I always finish it and often refill. I'd say pick one that meets your needs, but I've tested a number and can highly recommend this one: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B094X6N4PG/ It's easy to carry, has a built-in straw and cheap ($20).
- Multiple MacBook chargers. I purchased additional charger for my MacBook Pro at different parts of the house where I sit for long periods of time. Not having to go get my bag and dig out a charger is surprisingly rewarding.
- A second set of AirPods so I have one dedicated for work and one for the gym that I keep in my bag, rather than occasionally forgetting them. It also helps that I can swamp pairs if I have a particularly long day of meetings.
- A robust case for my MacBook Pro. I take my MacBook to and from the office, use it all around the house and have small kids. I've been through multiple cases, including the sleek expensive ones. For me, nothing beats this cheap one I found on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B083XZ3HP3/
- A rowing machine. The latest Concept 2 is ~$900 which is surprisingly cheap for a great workout I can do at how and relatively quietly while listening to a podcast or watching a game.
- A lapdesk. I use this daily and have multiple around the house wherever I end up sitting. They have fancy ones, but I've found the simple one is the best: just a piece of wood and a pillow: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07K1L3RNK/
But we had pretty much constant operations, so exercise wasn't a problem. To clarify, I meant that I got away from rowing when I deployed, not from exercise (until I was injured, that is).
I needed something convenient to squeeze in a 15-30 minute workout I'd enjoy once the kids go down, so I got another rower and started rowing again a couple of months ago. I've been pretty consistent (I've worked out 52 days in a row now, with exceptions for special circumstances like deaths in the family). It's a great full-body workout, and I listen to podcasts/audiobooks or watch football if there's a game on. I can't recommend it enough.
Some people have recommended BJJ, which I've enjoyed in the past, but with kids and my wife and I working 60+ hours a week (she owns a business), convenience + enjoyment are the only way to make it something I'll stick to.
So I've made a relatively small investment in crypto across a couple of dozen coins as an experiment. I am cautiously optimistic in the future, assuming it'll be 5-10 years until viability at any practical level for a mainstream audience.
But the boxing adjusts to your strength level, so it gets quite challenging the further you go requiring a strategy to manage your stamina, or you flame out swinging hard for a knock-out early on. It's exhausting.
VR has evolved since then since now. For example, you can connect it to stationary bikes, rowing machines, etc., compete with others, adding a whole new dimension.
Video games and fitness are multi-hundred billion-dollar industries. So why not combine the two? As someone who used to be an avid gamer but no longer has the time, I would love a way to combine my favorite hobby (gaming) with fitness, especially during the winter or other times when exercising outside is inconvenient.
I've been very interested in the Katerra story for a few reasons:
- I'm a real estate investor
- I have a logistics background
- The founder (or some other exec, can't remember) came to speak to my MBA class a few years back, and we toured their factory
What Katerra was trying to do is highly compelling, and I have to believe it'll eventually get done.
In terms of how it gets done, two paths initially come to mind:
1) Amazon acquires to leverage the logistics-at-scale approach and funds long enough to find P/M fit.
2) A new startup (or spin-off) focuses on one of the products (I'd choose software first) and nails P/M fit. By strategically making the first product one that removes blockers to pave the way and jump-starts change in the rest of the industry they can expand into adjacent products. Maybe there are existing companies like Houzz that could incubate one of these projects.
IMO solving this and combining it with ESG is world-changing to the extent of Tesla--affordable, sustainable housing for everyone. It could even be a status thing where the wealthy are willing to pay a bit more and for every build a home gets built for someone in need. If I were back in my 20's with no kids/mortgage and looking for a new project, I would tackle this.