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gjem97

452 karma · joined September 25, 2014

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gjem97··on New research indicates ‘Unicorns’ are overvalued
This is why the myth of "market capitalization" is so persistent. Often what you have at an IPO is a conversion of preferred shares to common shares. So effectively the 8 classes of preferred shares do become the same as the common, and the "simple" market capitalization number becomes real.

However.

How many startups never IPO? 99%? 99.9%? In acquisition or liquidation scenarios, those common shares are often worth a lot less than preferred. And because these scenarios make up a large proportion of the probability distribution, it means the expected value of common shares is a lot lower.

Even unicorns that are far more likely to IPO can raise bridge rounds that cause major dilution for the common shares, rendering previous market capitalization numbers useless.

gjem97··on New research indicates ‘Unicorns’ are overvalued
> The average unicorn, the researchers note, has eight stock classes for different types of investors, including founders, employees, venture capitalists, mutual funds, and others.

As an aside, this is why I think that any effort of a prospective employee to divine the value of a stock option package is likely in vain. Without a detailed accounting of the ins and outs of the preferred stock that is senior to your common shares, it is nigh impossible to tell how much the common shares (and options thereon) are worth.

gjem97··on New research indicates ‘Unicorns’ are overvalued
FWIW, this is what a 409A valuation is supposed to do. But that is often done long after a funding round is closed. The PR people and journos need a simple number to report on the story as the deal is announced. I would argue nobody really knows what the company is worth at that point (with the exception of the new lead investor, who may have a model for it).
gjem97··on LIGO Detects Gravitational Waves for Third Time
> These are collisions that produce more power than is radiated as light by all the stars and galaxies in the universe at any given time.

Astounding, especially given that these are happening at regular intervals in our "neighborhood".

gjem97··on UH Researchers Report New, More Efficient Catalyst for Water Splitting
What are the key metrics for catalysts? Obviously cost is one. Round-trip energy efficiency? How does this measure up to existing commercial alternatives? How about against no-catalyst electrolysis?
gjem97··on All fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years in oil and auto ‘death spiral’
The problem is that the feedback loop on the commodity side goes in the wrong direction for a "death spiral". A reduction in the number of gasoline burners on the road causes a reduction in the price of gasoline, which makes gasoline burners MORE attractive, not less. Also because turnover on automobiles is slow, 8 years seems much too fast, if it ever happens at all.
gjem97··on Was the Art of S-Town Worth the Pain?
Regarding 2, I'd be interested to know whether there was a different legal/ethical standard for people who have died. Surely there must be a journalism professor around here somewhere.
gjem97··on Was the Art of S-Town Worth the Pain?
> uncovering more of his private life through the testimony of others could be against his wishes

I don't see why this is relevant. As long as the journalist reports from within the ethical and legal boundaries of the profession, I don't think we can fault him/her if the subject doesn't like the end product. Very few journalists will give retroactive veto power to an interview subject, nor will they allow the subject to dictate who else may say what about the story. In the general case, in the absence of submitting the story for review before publishing, it is impossible to ensure that the subject will be happy with it. I don't think there's anything wrong with any of this.

gjem97··on Was the Art of S-Town Worth the Pain?
This is the bargain you make when you talk to a journalist, you get your side of the story on the record, but you usually have no control over where the journalist takes it. You're not comfortable with that, don't speak to journalists. Barring outright misrepresentations by the journalist about their intentions, I don't see anything wrong with this.
gjem97··on Turris Omnia
I'm just imagining that the average homeowner isn't going to want to keep track of a second device, even if that's part of their iPhone. People switch/lose phones. I think it's better if its built into the hardware.
gjem97··on Turris Omnia
Yeah, I think I was implicitly including in my use case people unfamiliar with git/puppet/etc.
gjem97··on Turris Omnia
Right, and so that was my point about an second factor built in to the device.
gjem97··on Turris Omnia
OK, I know it's the worst to show a product and have the first thing out of the audience be a feature request. So I guess first: this looks awesome. Second: what I really want from a SOHO router is a decent remote administration workflow. Our network admin is remote/part-time, and frequently uses remote-desktop apps to be "present" on our network to administer our firewall.

Here's what I'm thinking. Build an OTP display into the router that is necessary as a second factor for remote administration. Then, instead of allowing the remote administrator to make changes immediately, require me (on the local network) to approve the changes.

Regardless of the actual implementation, it seems like remote administration is a neglected featureset of the SOHO networking world. In my experience, though, it is very common to need someone outside the network to make changes (remote employee, family member, IT consulting shop, etc).

gjem97··on Why I like Golang's interfaces
Technically it happens occasionally, especially if you prefer terse method names and/or small interface definitions. However I have yet to see an example of it causing an issue. Usually I see problems where a struct doesn't satisfy an interface where it "should".
gjem97··on Will Spotify go public without an IPO?
Yes, however I think the hard part is getting the attention and interest of the investors in the first place. The IBs also act as a quality signal in the other direction, too. That is, I, as a potential investor am more likely to invest if the deal is brought to me by Morgan Stanley than if presented on some startup platform. I'm not passing judgement on that mindset, I'm just pointing out that it is the case for a large percentage of those potential investors.
gjem97··on Will Spotify go public without an IPO?
Companies with limited name recognition outside of their industry--Okta comes to mind--may not be able to scare up enough liquidity in the marketplace to absorb the millions of shares on offer by the company. A true unrestricted dutch auction may end up going off close to zero. That's what the IPO roadshow is about, giving your pitch and soliciting bids for shares. The investment banks act as gatekeepers to these potential investors, and arguably getting face time with their clients is a large part of what the fees the company pays are for.
gjem97··on We Need a New Deal to Address the Economic Risks of Automation
Globally, how many people have net debt? I bet it's fewer than you think.
gjem97··on Planet Explorer Beta
Right, the old "how much you got?" pricing scheme.
gjem97··on Planet Explorer Beta
What an odd response. I think it's a perfectly reasonable question to ask. Why does it matter who the asker is?
gjem97··on Usql – A universal command-line interface for SQL databases
It doesn't require Go any more than nginx requires C. Go executables are for the most part static, and depend on very little, making them highly portable across distros.
gjem97··on Runner Disqualified After Claiming 2nd Place in Fort Lauderdale Half Marathon
Hundreds of cheaters?! Now I'm starting to understand why marathon sleuthing is the cottage industry that it is.
gjem97··on IPv6 adoption hits a wall
Trying hard not to read too much into what is clearly a small number of datapoints, but it sure looks like IPv6 adoption hit a wall on January 1. Is this an artifact of the data collection process or a real effect?
gjem97··on How UPS trucks saved millions of dollars by eliminating left turns
I think "created an algorithm" is probably overselling it a bit. Clearly they already had a route planner, didn't they just modify it to add extra cost to a left turn?
gjem97··on TensorFlow Image Recognition on a Raspberry Pi
A bit off topic, but related: can anyone point me to a recipe for "low-latency" video with the RPi. I don't even really mean "low-latency", I had tried a couple of different setups/tools a few months ago, and the best I could do was a half or full second delay on the video.
gjem97··on Whonix – A desktop operating system designed for advanced security and privacy
What's the difference between "Live USB" and "USB Bootable"?
gjem97··on Selecting a platform: JavaScript vs Elm vs PureScript vs GHCjs
Can you be more specific about what boilerplate is necessary?
gjem97··on 3M Novec 7100 Fluid Used in Largest Two-Phase Immersion Cooling Project (2015)
This is what I came here to ask. Seems a bit silly to fill the whole tower case with cooling fluid. My guess is that the incremental benefit you get from the redesign doesn't outweigh the costs. It may at very large scale, and I would guess that Amazon, Facebook and Google have all experimented with it.
gjem97··on The Vertical Farm
Right, but then we're really talking about aeroponic farming, not vertical farming.
gjem97··on Ask HN: Is it just me or do a lot of people not know how stock options work?
I agree, there are cases where the values converge. They are, however, a very small percentage all startup outcomes. Most outcomes for venture-backed startups are wind-downs, or small-time acquisitions. In these cases preferred shares are much more valuable. Since what you're trying to do here is assign a current (expected) value to the employee's options, focusing on the "home runs" for the VC is not helpful.
gjem97··on Ask HN: Is it just me or do a lot of people not know how stock options work?
That's a really nice tool, well thought-out, and the calculations it does are spot on. However, I think it's based on one pretty big assumption: that the shares that investors buy are the same as the shares that you would get through your ISOs. They typically are not the same, with the investors getting preferred shares that are superior to your common shares. Furthermore, terms like liquidation preferences and "participation" can make the preferred shares much much more valuable in many types of liquidity events. So in all, I worry that this tool does more harm than good. Even given all the information you solicit from the user it is still very hard to say what the options/shares are worth. Typical errors in the estimate could be an order of magnitude or more.
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