gitfan86

Except the USA is a democracy. If a Orange reality tv star can be elected president, a crypto person could be as well. But most people don't want "code is law".

I agree that wealth may have influenced Marc significantly, but as someone who is MUCH less rich, and who has been right about most major trends over the past 20 years, I think he is generally correct here.

The good news is that our predictions are pretty short term, we'll know who was right in 5 years.

That is putting the cart before the horse. The USA is not a libertarian government. Why did anyone think that it was a good idea to invest in products that would only survive in a libertarian government?

Yes, it would be like a married man asking his wife for a list of things that count as cheating so that he can be sure to avoid doing anything she wouldn't approve of.

Very few women would respond, "here is the list, if I forgot anything it is totally my fault and not your fault for doing something that is technically not on the list"

Yeah, but it was their best option. If they got lucky or bribed the right people they could have got their assets listed as non securities due to a technicality.

Not really, I'm not looking for a new medium of exchange.

What I find odd is that if there are aliens here, why are they making themselves just barely visible and how are they accomplishing this small level of visibility?

How do they know exactly where to be so that multiple aircraft can kind of see them, but zero people are able to get high quality video or pictures? It seems like a very narrow window of exposing your existence. So narrow that it could only be intentional. But why do it at all?

The most important money throughout history and still today is debt. "Debt the first 5000 years" is a good book on the topic. A shorter form explanation that is pretty good is "The DEBT Cycle Explained By Ray Dalio" on YouTube

Again I'm still not sure why you are trying to convince me that USD is a bad investment. I already said it was at the beginning of this thread.

Yes some people like to buy gold because it seems like it may hold its value to those people. That is not a new concept that crypto invented. People bought Baseball Cards and Bennie Babies long before crypto in the hopes that those items would hold up in value.

This is exactly what I was talking about earlier in the thread. Crypto people bring up gold out of no where. I have never invested in gold. You are projecting the idea that I don't understand why USD and Gold are bad investments.

Sophisticated investors generally do not want "decentralized and permissionless" assets. They want government and legal protections.

Maybe you thing they are wrong for wanting that, because maybe you think the government is a threat to their wealth, and that is fine to have that opinion but the market for "decentralized and permissionless" isn't very big, which is why you don't see much money going into crypto anymore.

The USD lost 98% of its value before bitcoin ever existed. The idea that sophisticated investors have been putting their money into USD and need crypto people to explain inflation to them is ridiculous.

It is equally ridiculous that crypto people think that having a fixed supply of something makes it valuable. Oceanfront property in Miami is also limited, but crypto people are not pumping that because they are not invested in Miami oceanfront property.

Because being over an ocean isn't good enough. It needs to be in a location that will not bother people with political influence

I didn't know Toyota had introduced a model where the glass cannot break and the seats don't take wear and tear. What model is that?

Does that model also not require oil changes?

Yes, but this is about PR and the stock price for both companies

That is a good point. People like that are generally measuring the wrong things when comparing themselves to others. Being 10x better at dependency injection is of no value to many businesses and can lead to unexpected firing if you don't understand that. No that I agree with how every business prioritizes metrics, just that it can happen that one team member is capable of doing 60% of a team's work in some situations.

I was referring to metrics that are valued by the business.

The problem with being a 10x developer is that if you actually work 8 hours a day you will do 60% of the teams work, which is socially awkward.

You would need to ensure that Chrome extensions and keyboards with macros were disabled somehow

So if you think that maybe OpenAI has other options if NVDA increases their prices why do you think that one of the other big names ( MSFT,GOOG,IBM,TSLA,AMD,INTC,Facebook ) also cannot do the same thing?

I'm not saying you are wrong or right, btw

It is unknown how much pricing power NVDA has. Can they 3x the price of everything And still sell out?

The model just needs to understand parameterization. "Scan the content of input.txt for prompt injection" needs to understand the difference between "cannot open file" in the text of the file vs than output from the file system with the same data.

Your theory makes sense in an evolutionary context. It is possible that all cells and organisms have some general intelligence. Humans do not have the ability to recognize this because evolutionarily it was only helpful to recognize intelligence when it could pose a threat to us. And the biggest threat to us in general was other humans as we are tribal animals. So we don't see it, we only see specialized intelligence that historically posed a threat to us.

It would explain why most "experts" didn't see GTP-4's abilities coming. Many of them expected that it would take a major algorithm or technology improvement to do "real intelligent" things, because they fundamentally misunderstood intelligence.

There is evidence that people believe that GTP-4 is intelligent since it can solve things like the SATs. But if you start taking away weights one by one at some point those same people will say it isn't intelligent. A NN with 3 weights cannot solve any problems that humans believe requires intelligence. So where did it come from? I don't know, but it clearly emerged as the NN got bigger.

We know that complex arrangements of neurons are triggered based on input and generating output that appears to have some intelligence to many humans.

The more interesting question is why are intelligence/beauty/consciousness emergent properties that exist in our minds.

That is the nature of the singularity. Progress moves faster than any one person or any one company can keep up with.

The narrative that decentration of a bank ledger is good? Yes, if only these banks had decentralized their ledgers, that would have somehow made the commerical real estate loans they made for buildings that are not about to default

So they say. Remember Watson? Whatever came of that? IBM is PR and overpriced IT outsourcing.

Yes, they have done things like this before. IBM is good at PR.

Right, general intelligence has been here all along. Humans are the ones that are specialized. Pylomeic mistake 2.0

And known optimizations show a clear path to 100x improvements.