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gitfan86

2,448 karma · joined September 5, 2021

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gitfan86··on Anthropic updates their terms to verify age or identity
This is their only option. Someone who is the head of security for a hospital IT department needs access to mythos, and some 17 year old with fraud convictions doesn't.

It's the same reason we require ID for alcohol and gun purchases. Obviously it isn't a perfect system, teens drink but good luck suggesting that 13 year old should be allowed to buy alcohol.

gitfan86··on Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
Yeah, it's a 24 year old company that controls space Internet and is the most competent company building data centers. If a passive index doesn't include it they are taking a much stronger opinion on the stock than if they do include it.

If it's a poorly run fraudulent company the regulators and the banks are at fault for letting it go public not the indicies

gitfan86··on Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
The goal of SP500 is to provide exposure to the 500 biggest companies, not protect shareholders. I think IBM might do poorly when AI destroys their overpriced IT outsourcing business, but that doesn't mean SP500 should kick them out.
gitfan86··on Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
You misunderstood what you were buying if you thought that S&P500 could never change their processes.
gitfan86··on Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
Yes, if someone thinks that the top 500 companies include too much risk then yes too bad, you need to move out of SPY.

It isn't called the S&P495 because they kick out 5 of the biggest companies that some people consider to be risky.

I personally think its super risky to want to be Diversified and NOT include any exposure to SpaceX. Yes, Elon is unique but that doesn't mean his companies are going to fail especially given the potential risk of AI changing the world. Is IBM going to keep selling overpriced IT outsourcing in 5 years?

gitfan86··on Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
Why do you assume SpaceX will be a failure? Do you have a track record of being correct on Elon companies? If SpaceX succeeds and its in the SPY from day one that serves everyone who owns index funds.
gitfan86··on Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
The whole point of index funds is that you don't have to pay management fees to managers. It's very expensive to hire a team of people to analyze the entire stock market in detail and chose the best 500 companies, and historically people who did that on average didn't beat the S&P500.

Just look up the performance of Mutual Funds vs S&P500.

gitfan86··on Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
This fundamentally misunderstand the point of an index. The fundamental reason S&P 500 exists is to let people buy the entire market ( the top 500 companies make up most of the entire market ). That is it. Period.

They are not saying these 500 companies are going to be the most successful in 6 months or 10 years. At one point Enron was 0.6% of S&P500 because it was a large company, not because the directors at S&P500 thought the management were honest people.

If you don't like that, fine, don't buy S&P500 and buy stocks or other funds that do have companies you like.

gitfan86··on Amazon’s Ring to partner with Flock
I don't understand why you assume that the government is following all the laws when it comes to cell phones and cloud data but won't when it comes to ring data?
gitfan86··on Amazon’s Ring to partner with Flock
To all the people talking about government surveillance do you not realize the government already can track you by your cell phone?
gitfan86··on Waymo has received our pilot permit allowing for commercial operations at SFO
Waymo cannot scale. So for most people it's irrelevant.

Tesla FSD makes driving 90% less taxing mentally. It does 99.9% of the driving perfectly. And its getting better. We are quickly approaching a situation where people who don't drive Teslas are like people who cut their grass with Sickle as compared to people who have driving lawn mowers

gitfan86··on Waymo has received our pilot permit allowing for commercial operations at SFO
LOL
gitfan86··on The treasury is expanding the Patriot Act to attack Bitcoin self custody
LOL, the BTC people who thought "Digital Gold" was a good slogan are going to learn what happened to self custody of gold and the gold standard.

BTC is in a much worse situation than gold was in 1970. The government has the technology to follow transactions and require BTC transactions to be done on their chain with their BTC equivalent GBTCs. That is until the government decides to issue print more BTC equivalents

gitfan86··on Starlink is currently experiencing a service outage. Our team is investigating
Config error, being rolled back now
gitfan86··on OpenAI claims gold-medal performance at IMO 2025
AI sceptics are on a trajectory towards philosophy.
gitfan86··on OpenAI claims gold-medal performance at IMO 2025
This is such an interesting time because the percentage of people who are making predictions about AGI happening on the future are going to drop off and the number of people completely ignoring the term AGI will increase.
gitfan86··on AI capex is so big that it's affecting economic statistics
Nails are not zero sum. You can get a bunch of nails without limiting how many nails I have.

Social status is zero sum and as more of the economy gets automated that becomes all that is left that is scarce

gitfan86··on AI capex is so big that it's affecting economic statistics
The counterintuitive part of automation is that it removes parts of the economy rather than making the economy bigger. You end up with more goods but the value people assign to them goes down as they don't provide additional social advantage.

For example at one point nails were 0.5% of the economy and today owning a nail factory is a low margin business that has no social status.

Similarly the percentage of the economy and social status associated with frontend software dev will get automated and become a smaller percentage of the economy.

Since social status is a zero sum game people increase spending in other areas where social status can be helped.

gitfan86··on GLP-1s Are Breaking Life Insurance
Not really, they can just stop insuring people who take them at all.
gitfan86··on Breaking Git with a carriage return and cloning RCE
Many people use IE 11. Still an edge case.
gitfan86··on Breaking Git with a carriage return and cloning RCE
Just using git isn't the vulnerability. The vulnerability is that you clone a repo that an attacker was able to put this in. 90% of the time this would happen it would be due to an attacker creating a PR on a public repo.
gitfan86··on Breaking Git with a carriage return and cloning RCE
Those people won't be vulnerable to this attack, since this attack is only useful in supply chain attacks. The people vulnerable to this would be maintainers of open source repos who could end up approving a malicious PR.
gitfan86··on Breaking Git with a carriage return and cloning RCE
You can always find edge cases in security. Someone somewhere is running Internet Explorer 10 but that doesn't mean Chrome fixing bugs doesn't dramatically reduce effectiveness of attacks
gitfan86··on Breaking Git with a carriage return and cloning RCE
This seems easy for GitHub to block
gitfan86··on Meta invests $14.3B in Scale AI to kick-start superintelligence lab
Sam Altman is a huge risk to META. He has similar morals to Zuck and a much better technical team. If OpenAI turns on the slop generator, they could hit Facebook and Instagram hard. Wang is probably smart enough to help navigate that risk.
gitfan86··on AI makes the humanities more important, but also weirder
Quality rises to the top organically.
gitfan86··on AI makes the humanities more important, but also weirder
For every Quinton Tarantino there are dozens of people who could make amazing films but never had the opportunity for a wide variety of reasons that now mostly go away.
gitfan86··on OpenAI reaches agreement to buy Windsurf for $3B
The entire reason OpenAI has a high valuation is the expectation that AI will get a lot better in the next few years. If that happens, building a clone of Cursor/windsurf should be trivial. The only reason you would buy windsurf today is to either pump up the bubble OR use it to increase your market share of developers by taking users away from claude
gitfan86··on Ask HN: AI Replacing Engineers – Firsthand Stories?
Most but not all companies are bottlenecked by organizatial issues not speed of completing a jira ticket. A lot of those companies have moats or sales issues that prevent competitors from easily taking market share.

So instead of seeing mass drop in job openings you will see companies that are not bottlenecked by org issues start to move very fast. In general that will create new markets and have a positive effect on kobs

gitfan86··on FBI arrests judge accused of helping man evade immigration authorities
The idea is that the justice system should work in a reasonable way so that victims and potential victim rights are protected.

For example, someone who allegedly beat their wife, has a right to a trial. But if activist judges make decisions that cause the trial to not take place for 10 years that is obstructive and the alleged victim doesn't get justice or protection from future assaults. So if that person is deported before the trial you could complain about lack of "due process" but you would be ignoring the rights of the victim.

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