Compare this to the US Civil War and the depth of perpetual debt before and after.
3,309 karma · joined May 2, 2016
This pretty much sums up the whole article, and it makes perfect sense.
So much was going to happen anyway that you really do have to look away from the technology to answer why.
I would say GPTs didn't come earlier because sama didn't have enough high-dollar contacts yet who would extend their confidence to him.
And then what you get is little hops done big because that's whats already familiar to the big money owners.
So LLMs are first out of the gate to reach impressive capabilities, but something completely unfamiliar that may be superior due to purposeful design including fundamental principles will have to lag behind until a very big change would become possible.
You just can't pinpoint who controls this non-ledger value at any one time.
But I would estimate it's owned by a player known as "sentiment."
The rules are still evolving but have been a cat-and-mouse effort for more than a century.
>Valuations are always dependent on future expectations.
This is the point. The market is a very responsive organism. It is not easy for a group to reach the point where it can evolve faster than the market can adapt. For some though, this has always been the holy grail. Rarely does it work. When it does some people do get much richer much faster than otherwise, but by comparison the market is so huge it's still usually not a significant impact on the overall market.
Future expectations can have a tendency to become bigger than the "whole" market though. Even if not that massive it still represents more paper wealth that could be more quickly extracted than the same companies will be able to contribute in earnings over the same period.
You could say extracting this was built into the system to allow this type of "bottled wealth" to flow, or alternatively, a much wilder version has been reigned in to arrive at what we have now, in which Enron itself has been taken into consideration as much as it could be at the time.
There really shouldn't be much problem unless a highly leveraged entity gets so big so fast that it is no longer insignificant relative to the market niche it operates in, or even the whole market. If it's also "evolving" faster or more creatively than the market that's something too.
In that equation fraud does not need to exist, and is not necessarily a prominent term.
Nobody at Enron tried to defraud me even though in the end they failed to pay thousands in invoices. A single company built from a house of cards shows the textbook example of how outgrowing the ability of future expectations to deliver can cause bigger companies to collapse further and more abruptly than otherwise.
It would have been much worse if I had been a shareholder. But I was a valued contractor and everyone I had contact with was exceptional, sometimes the smartest person in the room.
These Basic Laws are really not focused on the US Presidency when it was written in 1976 by Carlo Cipolla, who was already an economic historian by then.
>A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or to a group of persons while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring losses.
>Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals. In particular, non-stupid people constantly forget that at all times and places and under any circumstances to deal and/or associate with stupid people infallibly turns out to be a costly mistake.
>A stupid person is the most dangerous type of person. A stupid person is more dangerous than a bandit.
This is exactly the unanimous reaction to young Trump himself back in 1976 when he was one of the more annoying golf-loving fake millionaires from NYC, coming to South Florida and acting like a big shot. Much more fake than most, and way more flamboyant, it was so comical. You should have seen the gossip on him in the Enquirer, and the pictures with unidentified women whom none of the gossip hounds knew anything about.
When you think about it with hindsight, most of the other fake millionaires doing flagrant self-promotion were not as likely to do something stupid and make for a paragraph or two in a local tabloid. He really was a product of the media and got famous nationwide as his NY deals bankrupted people, nothing else he did was as notable.
It's not like he has acquired enough of the non-stupid characteristics to make a difference by now.
I normally prefer to focus my disapproval on ingrained dishonesty, because I remember so well how it only took a few weeks for the locals to share that he cheats at golf and can't be trusted in a real estate deal. The old money wasn't stupid, Trump never had a chance until they all died off.
Cipolla's Basic Laws sound like he met Trump in person 50 years ago, and it confirmed all his research up until that point thoroughly enough to print :\
Non-leaders in leadership positions have turned out to be quite contagious and potentially more deadly than real medical disease.
>block access entirely to anyone under 16
>curfews and algorithm restrictions for 16 and 17
To protect minors best (and everybody else) their actual age needs to be kept off the internet.
Besides their actual identity, as protective parents have known for decades.
Completely. No compromises. Whatever it takes.
That was figured out a long time ago.
This emerging moronism among UK big-shots is just the opposite of that.
What about the other end of the spectrum?
Could very well be funded as a diversion from a parallel intent to tabulate the exact age of senior citizens who might be equally exploitable if not more so depending on their age and resources.
>This isn't primarily a child safety measure, it's the state deciding which grown-up content an algorithm should favour.
Wouldn't the most lucrative targets for algorithmists be those having greater retirement funds, and facing eventual cognitive decline rather than teenagers possessing few resources, not legally able to sign their money away, and expected to become better educated and more aware as years go by?
The only thing Google had going for it was no ads and a committment to not be evil.
That's all it took to topple the leaders.
But this looks more like a typical mindless Facebook knee-jerk downvote-a-bot.
They may not have real intelligence or feelings but still don't like your kind anyway.
When email came out in the '80's it was the first time for so many people that typed office correspondence was not produced by a professional typist.
Expectations were not that high from that point, then one day the internet came along and way more non-typists started typing, plus students got their hands on cellphones and started silently texting each other at high speed when they couldn't talk during class.
The whole time, things like Microsoft Word by the early '90's were fully capable of quite good layout and formatting. Pretty much regarded as formalities intended for professional use though, plus Word cost money and nobody could expect plain text to compare so why bother starting to seriously capitalize and punctuate now?
Plus on low-resolution monitors, it was sometimes more difficult to read any of the word-processor renditions until you printed them, so plain text it was, non-professionally typed for everything but the most formal true documents.
Anything other than lower-case has always been forced.
I guess the short answer would be, "Sir, this is an internet."
>You own 90–100% of it, take the lead, and avoid butting heads and blame games as co-founders. You’re now accountable and responsible since it was your idea, your vision, and your commitment, but you enjoy full autonomy–a gift unlike any other in real life, TBH.
This has always been a fairly good starting point to negotiate from.
For a "non-technical" business, the technical business partner is about like a hired mechanic who picks up the loose ends when they appear, in a business that is not primarily technology-based. Kind of like with used car sales.
If it's going to be a technology business of course it's the other way around, the technology is best owned and operated by a technical leader who has way more skill at running a technology business than the most advanced MBA, and from there carefully chooses a non-technical partner who can pick up the loose everyday business ends for not much equity or decision-making responsibility.
Getting this backwards looks like an even more prominent cause of complete failure than many other things.
I had ideas not completely unlike this so long ago, but one big difference can be summed up in one of your parameters.
>Directories are walked, binaries are skipped . . . and each file is read from its beginning to its end because a document has an order.
For me it was binaries being walked because text and anything approaching a language model was so much further out-of-reach having such limited computer power.
Why settle for anything less?
Before they had personal computers I always figured the established computer experts were going to get their mainframes to do AI a lot sooner than it turned out.
That was a non-starter though, not many people could afford huge amounts of hardware in a centralized datacenter where you don't have unlimited access. How was the next level of progress supposed to occur if you didn't fully own the electronics?
It was pretty impressive when it required a forklift to move the CPU, but kind of forbidding too.
PCs took over fast for that very reason and rapidly became more powerful until they were quite capable of incredible amounts of automation well over 20 years ago for so many things.
The whole time since the mainframe days the thing that has held true for AI in automation, is that it has to take the same powerful, sophisticated PC hardware that already works so well without AI, and bring that to the next level in logical progression.
No dependency on remote data, remote storage, network or internet at all. Otherwise why bother?
As long as AI can not make the same stand-alone hardware outperform what it's already capable of beforehand, there's quite a bit more work to do.
An idealized automation workflow on a new PC without AI:
Insert blank SSD > Install OS > Install automation app > Program app > Run automaton
Same stand-alone hardware, with AI:
Insert blank SSD > Install OS > Install AI app > Train app > Run automaton
If AI can't make the same hardware run smarter, it's not as intelligent as it could be, is it?
I don't need AGI, I just need this.
Sounds a bit like real-time "distillation" to me.
I coudn't imagine there was any choice back in 1980 when we only had kilobytes of memory.
Restoring the functioning of the original electrodes in situ is a bit of a different ordeal. But they're working on it :)
Remember that Disney owns the ABC TV broadcast network.
With this move, the regular TV news that has been streaming from abcnews.com and local affiliates for years has finally become inaccessible from all my Windows 11 PCs. This is using clean Windows with Edge only, no 3rd party apps or ad blockers, not relying on anything but good old Windows & Edge to handle security & privacy as well as they can.
Pre-recorded clips still play but not live news any more from ABC News or local station websites.
The same old PCs that played abcnews just fine until recently, and still play everything else at all resolutions.
The live internet streams were regular TV news with regular TV ads as always on their regular websites. No broadcast sports or entertainment programs were included, on the web those time slots were replaced by things like public interest programs from ABC studios. Including the same number of ads as the scheduled in-house news programs.
This hurts the advertisers more than anybody, Disney has now abruptly cut off countless web users who have always been just fine with the traditional 24/7 ads on the ad-supported news, apparently so Disney+ fans can be made more comfortable with any ads being eased in to paid premium programming. Just because they are on the same internet, that's a lot of collateral damage.
If I was an advertiser I would be hitting the ceiling and demanding far lower ad fees from Disney than there was a couple weeks ago. Now that casual random internet viewers have been kicked off the news stream in countless numbers.
Now the heretofore well-understood descriptor "Artificial Intelligence" has been distilled from all of the world's experts for quite some time.
You can't expect terminology alone to turn things around completely, there's got to be some equivalence for it to be a meaningful rebrand.
In the Trump vocabulary I think the closest thing that comes to mind as AI for most people would be "Fake Intelligence", which is right on-brand the way he talks, and rolls off the tongue easier than the runner-up "Hoax Intelligence."
Like anything else, FI would be understood to be convenient shorthand, every time you see Trump's face associated with "intelligence" of any kind it would naturally imply the full formal name; "Fake Intelligence of America."
In this case the electrode is metallic lead and the electrolyte is water containing sulfuric acid.
The electrode-electrolyte "interphase" is a solid coating based on lead sulfate, that forms on the lead plates after extended recharge cycles. This doesn't redissolve very well during use after a while when the electrolyte has become oversaturated with lead ions, and the electrodes have been "replated" so many times. Especially when recharged from near-death.
One antique way of restoration without disassembly was to agitate the battery using an industrial vibrator to loosen up the solids, then dump out the (highly toxic lead-containing) electrolyte to physically remove as much sludge as possible. Followed by repeated filling using distilled water, agitation, and dumping until the waste water looks OK. One final fill with DI water (which acts as a very weak electrolyte at this point) and a reverse charge until an amp or two has been reached for a bit, to deplate as much oxidized coating as possible into a virgin solvent.
More agitation, dumping, rinsing, and finally replace with fresh acid.
Desperate measures for desperate times, not too economical today unless similar wastewater is already being handled in a scale that dwarfs a single battery, and fresh acid is obtained surplus or purchased at bulk pricing as well.
How about "Producer Reports" where companies are evaluated on whether they actually produce anything of value first and foremost as a benchmark.
Completely separate from the financial data which is already well-covered elsewhere. Investors are already supposed to get the most out of the money angle.
But for any one product most people are neither consumers of the product nor investors in the company.
These are the vast majority who would benefit from better information on whether a company is worth having around, for everyone in general who is not an avid consumer nor investor.
That would probably be more helpful for "innocent bystanders" who want to better avoid being assimilated by forces they have no interest in but could end up quite costly anyway.
One of the real good shortcuts is to just start soldering parts together according to a plan in your head, without taking the time to make a schematic drawing beforehand or do any advanced calculations.
There might be more emphasis on the properties and ratings of each component this way, this is not something to skip over, you should be very familiar with each component you use. Well in advance, and loads of hours of component study needs to be behind you, otherwise you may not do too good at just whipping something up on the bench that's electrically sound to begin with.
As pointed out, with math it can be the same way.
If you just want to quickly start picking up parts and soldering them together right away without doing any advanced calculations, the best shortcut is to have already become quite familiar with the equations including calculus when necessary, so you can bring to bear endless hours of mathematical study and use it to intuitively guide your soldering iron for every hour at the bench.
Edit: upvoted because your message should not be less than neutral, not greyed out at all. Obviously, I'm on the fence, sometimes I use math, other times not at all ;)
How about a triple-play, damning with damn damnation?
It's just a stylistic thing, same with the smoke, which represents heat more so than fumes.
Normally you hold the iron horizontal under the nose and of course don't breathe during the heat test.
And you don't actually kiss the soldering iron until it's cooled all the way down, and usually not unless the experimental circuit you came up with works the first time you plug it in :) So you can relax as intended and unplug the damn iron, without having to keep on hammering til all hours.
One thing she's not telling is the way you should be effective enough soldering using (very inexpensive) uncontrolled soldering irons, that you can eventually solder two pieces of solder together. Before you graduate to a "pro-grade" soldering station.
For what it's worth.
Doubtless they got in position early to take advantage of many potential upswings.
And some of them only at their own convenience.
I wouldn't let it bother me, son of a gun I'm gonna have big fun on the bayou :)
edit: not my downvote btw
Some were more emotional than others, but one of the proponents was very touched, she admired Parton so much because Dolly set an example of how to be as successful as a person can be, and not keep a billion for yourself.
I can't find the clip now, but it was from the heart.
We still continued to have Civil Defense drills in case of nuclear attack.