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fitzwatermellow

4,025 karma · joined February 8, 2015

email: fitzwatermellow@gmail.com
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fitzwatermellow··on Quasi-Polynomial Algorithm for Graph Isomorphism
Yes, it's a rarity indeed!
fitzwatermellow··on Bitcoin Surges Past $400
Chatter in BTC trading forums puts a $3000 price target as "doable" ;)

A couple other points: mining is exploding as well with the global GHash rate / Difficulty accelerating. I have not calculated an exact correlation between price and compute but it could be an indicator of "real" moves in the currency.

The truest indicator is of course price-action. During last summer and into the fall, before Beijing implemented capital controls, when you observed the depth of book on orders on BW, you'd notice that the vast majority of orders were for even lots of ~0.0100BTC. This was indicative of algorithmic market making. Very few orders were above 100BTC. Now it's the exact opposite. Large orders with fast fills are common. I wish I had some real data and actual stats on the order book during the run-up ;( as I believe it would make a good indicator as to whether the current move is sustainable...

fitzwatermellow··on Watch an AI bot play Go [video]
There is something captivating about watching two master-AI's battling it out on the Go board, it's almost Art in a way ;)

Facebook's AI lab will probably reveal more technical details at NIPS 2015. Here's the workshop on Reasoning, Attention, Memory (RAM) they are organizing that will seek to address some of the challenges around advancing from classification and prediction tasks to simple cognition:

http://www.thespermwhale.com/jaseweston/ram/

fitzwatermellow··on Using Topological Data Analysis to Solve Complex Problems (2013) [video]
Thanks for the updated list, Anthony!

On the practical side, what packages are you guys using? I'm familiar with JavaPlex for Matlab:

http://appliedtopology.github.io/javaplex/

fitzwatermellow··on The Machine Stops by E.M. Forster (1909)
Nice! There was a BBC4 Radio version as well, but it doesn't seem to be available on the iPlayer ;(
fitzwatermellow··on Using Topological Data Analysis to Solve Complex Problems (2013) [video]
Interesting background on Ayasdi (literally, “to seek,” in Cherokee, perhaps sparking the newest trend in startup names deriving from indigenous languages) and its DARPA roots:

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/16/ayasdi-a-big-data-s...

And a link to founder and Stanford Math Prof. Gunnar Carlsson's seminal AMS paper on "Topology and Data":

http://www.ams.org/journals/bull/2009-46-02/S0273-0979-09-01...

fitzwatermellow··on GNU Scientific Library 2.0
Ordinarily, I'd insert a comment here on how much I miss my old NeXTCube, SparcStation, Apollo, AlphaStation, or Indy...

But the fact is I really, really don't. We are so spoiled now. Spinning up an AWS gpu cluster in 60 seconds from the beach beats spending a day and a half just to upgrade a video card ;)

fitzwatermellow··on GNU Scientific Library 2.0
Any HPC people would care to enlighten us ignoramuses on how the different frameworks for scientific computing stack up: matlab, octave, mathematica, gsl, nag, etc... Or is everyone just defaulting to Python and R now ;)
fitzwatermellow··on Apple’s Secrecy Hurts Its AI Software Development
Let's propose a hypothetical scenario. Imagine an investigator in a large research lab somewhere makes a revolutionary AI breakthrough. Not just an incremental step, but one that achieves 99.9999% success in image object recognition (current state-of-the-art using GPU-accelerated Sparse ConvNets puts Univ. of Warwick's Dr. Ben Graham's team in the lead at about 95%[1]).

What would be the incentive to make the result public? Certainly if the discoverer were a grad student at Berkeley they may throw a brief summary onto Arxiv the next day to get some peer validation. But if it were the ML team at Uber's new secretive lab in Pittsburgh? Would they not have a compelling interest in keeping it under the kimono?

There are several possible outcomes for this game to play out. But for right now let's bask in the warmth of our open source learning toolkit abundance and concentrate on the real question of the day: now that we can teach machines, are there better ways to use their time then ascertaining what makes a top selfie?

[1] https://www.kaggle.com/c/cifar-10/leaderboard/public

fitzwatermellow··on The Geopolitics of the United States, Part 1: The Inevitable Empire (2011)
Part Deux is here:

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/geopolitics-united-states-...

It occurs to me that what Strat4 is doing here is forecasting. Extrapolating from historic bases of power to predict the emergence of future hegemons. But wouldn't it be possible to achieve a more data-driven, empirical analysis? Might make a sweet Kaggle crowd prediction problem ;)

fitzwatermellow··on Facebook Messenger: inside Mark Zuckerberg's app for everything
Once you interact with a business [on Messenger], you open a thread that will stay forever. You never lose context of what you are talking about. And the business never loses context about who you are and your past purchases. It removes all the friction -Julien Codorniou, Facebook. Quoted from the article.

I think messaging based commerce seems really natural and human. Interested in hearing any experiences others have had building on FB Messenger Platform for business. It seems many of the showcased integrations tend toward digital content creation and curation such as Giphy and Dubsmash

https://developers.facebook.com/docs/messenger/showcase

fitzwatermellow··on Twitter Names Jack Dorsey Chief Executive
Congrats, @jack

Would love to see twtr become a platform for a myriad of third-party apps. Wouldn't it be great to place a market order by messaging @bats "buy $TWTR 10,000 30.00". Or order a limo with @uber "2 people in one hour to jfk airport"?

fitzwatermellow··on Google Cloud Shell
No button for my domain account as well. Have billing enabled. And when I attempt to send feedback on this issue, I get a "submission failed" error!

Have used micro instances in the past as remote development and deployment environments and a micro instance and it works ok. Wondering if something in between micro (0.7G) and standard (3.5G) might be better considering devenv can get pretty beefed up using certain modern frameworks we won't mention by name ;)

fitzwatermellow··on Probability, Paradox, and the Reasonable Person Principle
Love the George Carlin quote referenced in the section defining The Reasonable Person Principle:

"Have you ever noticed when you're driving that anybody driving slower than you is an idiot, and anyone going faster than you is a maniac?"

I'll include the canonical quip by Laplace:

"The theory of probabilities is at bottom nothing but common sense reduced to calculus; it enables us to appreciate with exactness that which accurate minds feel with a sort of instinct for which ofttimes they are unable to account." -Introduction to Théorie Analytique des Probabilitiés

fitzwatermellow··on An interpretation of art for the analytical mind
It's just randomized, right?

Or have I been misreading Caillebotte's "Paris Street; Rainy Day" (1876-1877)[1] as "High Impressionism" when all along it's really been "An Abstraction of Classicism" ;)

[1] http://www.artic.edu/aic/collections/citi/images/standard/We...

fitzwatermellow··on The Newly Discovered Tablet V of the Epic of Gilgamesh
For lovers of the ancient world, this sort of thing is more news worthy than a visit from Vatican City's Holiest. Sola lingua bona mortua est...

huskyr above called out the use of ancient.eu's social buttons as being a distraction. But to be honest I've rarely seen a web or native digital library of ancient sources experience that was acceptable to non-scholastic audiences. Take a look at UCLA's CDLI - Cuneiform Digital Library Initiative:

http://cdli.ucla.edu/

A search for "Gilgamesh" yields a trip back to an ancient page layout Endukugga himself might have been more comfortable browsing. I realize these are digital humanities projects funded with scarce grant resources. But I can't help thinking they would appeal to a much wider audience, that would be enriched tremendously by the wisdom of the ancients, if only presented in a more user-friendly manner.

fitzwatermellow··on Technology-Enabled Blitzscaling: Class Notes
Thanks for this! PayPal growth numbers are fascinating. Wondering if anyone pressed Reid on the point: was merely scaling customer service (adding more employees) adequate or were the problems with PayPal usability more systemic?
fitzwatermellow··on Tim Ferriss's Speed Reading Method, in a Chrome Extension
I have a quick and dirty speed reading hack: just read the first sentence of every paragraph in a long form article. You can usually infer the rest!
fitzwatermellow··on Bell inequality violation finally done right
Money quote: "if people had just understood and believed Bohr and Heisenberg back in 1925, there would’ve been no need for this whole tiresome discussion"

Prof. Aaronson is teaching a grad seminar this Fall at MIT on Computation and Physics. Here's hoping he makes the lecture notes public ;)

fitzwatermellow··on Netflix Data Reveals When TV Shows Hook Viewers
I wonder if there had ever been a show in the history of television in which 70% of viewers who watched the pilot made it to the finale. Fortunately, the article states Netflix has no plans to "rejigger" (i like that word, plan on using it more) its method of greenlighting shows. Which probably, despite the enormous quantity of data they collect, still resembles something akin to that scene in "Network," where they consider doing a docu-drama about the Symbionese Liberation Army.

You can count me as one of the 30% that never makes it past the first ten minutes of even the most acclaimed serial content. I just like movies. But out of curiosity I did watch the extended trailer of the 500 Startups reality show "Bazillion Dollar Club." There is a scene where a team is finalizing a prototype with its sourced design consultants. Its all dudes and they select a shape that is, well, let's just say suggestively masculine in its proportion. They decide they need to counterbalance their opinion with the female perspective and invite the ladies on staff to give their opinion. The women choose a completely different design. Soft, with rounded curves. But most importantly they have a visceral negative reaction to the men's choice. But the startup leadership completely ignores what I would consider a very important data point in favour of an arbitrary metric. That "70% of men make electronic purchasing decisions for their households." Completely ignoring the fact that generally, men don't really care about the appearance of their gadgets, just that they function properly. And that women generally tend to make the design choices at home. Obviously a very broad generalization but still.

The lesson here is about letting stats influence faulty reasoning while ignoring intuition. It doesn't appear that Netflix is allowing data to dictate programming. Yet.

fitzwatermellow··on Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy shows a higher-quality internet is possible
Does the SEP have any sort of bearing on the relative trashiness of the rest of the internet? Does any individual site have an imperative to influence the morality of sites it hyperlinks to? Is there some litmus test inbound links must pass before they can be included? And do digital content producers owe allegiance to this unwritten set of dicta invisbili? Or is their obligation solely to economic optimization and a greater global prosperity, where a rising tide lifts all boats?

Yes. It's true. I've been spending way too much time on SEP ;)

Although I for one would love to see a ClickHole-esque style parody of plato.stanford.edu. "Knobe lifts the veil executives behaving badly, and you won't believe what happens next!"

fitzwatermellow··on When Your Former Boss Sues You for Starting a Startup
This sucks. I use ChucK for composing and Ge Wang's CCRMA class notes are fire. I was under the impression he was a pretty chill guy. Is he really down with this course of action as a co-founder?

ps comp vision on mobile is the future so no matter what keep on building ;)

fitzwatermellow··on The New Bond Market: Bigger, Riskier and More Fragile Than Ever
"Let's keep this really simple. Since the financial crisis, how much more dollar-denominated debt is out there in the world."

That was Rick Santelli on CNBC an hour ago. Here's the video:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000422916

As the global economy slows, borrowers will cease to earn enough to service their debts. And the amounts are astronomical: $57T new debt at 17% debt-to-GDP ratios.

Link to McKinsey GI report on "Debt and (not much) deleveraging":

http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/economic_studies/debt_and_n...

fitzwatermellow··on How David Hume Helped Solve My Midlife Crisis
As definitive "proof" of God's existence? No..

But a natural consequence of thinking about concepts such as entropy and chaos is the emergence of the idea of perfection. A single-atomic layer, defect free crystal of graphene for example. And the fact that we can conceive of and perhaps even strive toward perfection has always seemed "suggestive" to me.

fitzwatermellow··on How David Hume Helped Solve My Midlife Crisis
Irked by author's facile dismissal of Descartes.

Admit I'm biased against Hume. Something about his Hard Scot style that left me as clammy as his pronouncement that "man was no more significant to the universe than an oyster."

For me, it remains Descartes Ontological Argument that provided the philosophical lantern in our collective cave of existential darkness. And I still see echoes of its pure logic and simplicity reverberating into the present. In Boltzmann Brains. In the intersections of quantum information theory and thermodynamics. Yes, even in the realms of design thinking, creativity and startup engineering...

fitzwatermellow··on The Art of PNG Glitch
While it's definitely not my cup of tea, Glitch Art certainly has a long and twisted history ;)

http://kernelmag.dailydot.com/issue-sections/features-issue-...

fitzwatermellow··on Free Data Science Books
I noticed something last night while watching the Djokovic US Open quarter-final. It featured an "IBM Insights" segment which claimed to have mined 8 years worth of Majors competitions to generate stats. And one interesting result it was able to produce went something like this: if Djokovic is able to return only 25% of his opponents serves, then in 85% of past matches it has resulted in victory for him. The implication being that such is the strength of his defensive game.

While this is no doubt really interesting, I find I am getting diminishing returns from outputting stats like this from big dumps of past historical data. What I would like to be able to show is a live heat graph style stats tracker, where each point in the match updates my belief net about who is winning, or playing better. Of course, the final outcome may be upended by some fluke occurrence such as a Hail Mary pass in the final seconds which is what makes sports interesting, but nonetheless I think a live tracker would say a lot more than the actual score of the match.

So, I am wondering if anyone has specific resources for real time online data mining? At web scale for high throughput data streams. And I agree with shubmajain above, libraries and repos are preferable to books and academic journals ;)

fitzwatermellow··on Show HN: Libsoundio 1.0.0 – cross-platform audio input and output
This is awesome! The next CSound or ChucK or SuperCollider could be built on this...
fitzwatermellow··on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Technologies – Princeton University
I've signed up. Craving a more formal intro to crypto-currencies. Consists mostly of video lectures and supplemental multiple choice style quizzes. Original course included five programming assignments asking students to build simplified versions of a Bitcoin like system, but its not clear there is any programming involved in the Coursera version.

A draft version of the Bitcoin textbook the instructors are currently working on is available:

https://piazza.com/princeton/spring2015/btctech/resources

fitzwatermellow··on Chanakya: India's Machiavelli
From WikiSource: Kautilya (Chanakya). Arthashastra. Translated by R. Shamasastry. Bangalore: Government Press, 1915.

https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Arthashastra

Vedantic wisdom is like the ripened mango tree that when one fruit is plucked, two more give bloom. From the chapter on corporate espionage:

"THE acquisition of the help of corporations is better than the acquisition of an army, a friend, or profits. By means of conciliation and gifts, the conqueror should secure and enjoy the services of such corporations as are invincible to the enemy and are favourably disposed towards himself. But those who are opposed to him, he should put down by sowing the seeds of dissension among them and by secretly punishing them."

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