Let's just be real, America is controlled by the PayPal Mafia, they can do whatever they want with impunity at this point.
2,550 karma · joined September 11, 2011
After recently pushing agentic apps to production, my impression is that agentic AI is here to stay and domain knowledge is more important than ever. Real expertise is required for context engineering and harness engineering. You have to think ten steps ahead now if you really want to turn stochastic output of an LLM into something reliable and flexible. Domain expertise is needed to identify workflows which were previously impractical but can now be achieved using the reasoning* capabilities of an LLM.
In my 20 year career I've seen trends come and go. Every few years, some skill upgrade was necessary, and AI is just another push towards that.
But the yields are going up simply because investors do not want to buy at lower interest anymore. It indicates that investors view the bond as riskier than before. A real fear is materializing that US will default on it's debt. Sure, the fed can always print money to bail them out, but the inflation is on track to cost the Republicans in the midterms.
There are a combination of factors which is causing this fear- those are radical changes in immigration, trade and military policies. The stability of the bond market is built on the trust that US will act rationally when it comes to skilled immigration, free trade and avoiding direct military conflict. Clearly it's no longer the case.
US population view themselves as immune to fallouts from global events. But we're starting to see that when you breaki promises left and right, people lose trust, and you pay the price, even when you're a superpower.
My money is on 8% yield by the end of Q1 '27.
I also get loads Polymarket and Kalshi ads. Polymarket seems to have invested tons into featuring mega celebs like LeBron in one of their ads. Other ads feature influencers showing off how to trade and such. More obnoxious part is that these companies pay influencers to talk about trading and winning live on streams- without disclosing they're paying those influencers.
Polymarket even set up fake website where influencers showed they were winning hundreds of thousands of dollars. You wouldn't find those bets on the real Polymarket website.
This is being done with an agent-first approach in mind. Agents cost a lot to run. Moving markdown to /src will only help AI subscription sellers.
If you are a fan of local LLM, then you also know code is not cheap. It requires substantial amount of investment in infra acquisition and maintenance.
Markdown should be where they always were, in /docs. It does not make a difference for an agent. But it allows to keep /src clean and adhere to zero-token architecture.
Bond prices shooting up is a result of market losing trust in US, or it's ability to not default.
Dollar is famous backed by $700T military. But the world has seen how it failed to secure a strait.
The current US government has broken all kind of promises. I want to highlight two in particular - free trade and immigration.
World economy has benefited for decades on the promises of free trade. The tariffs have eroded the promise and trust.
The government is also openly supporting elements who are hostile to immigrants. Immigrants are the backbone of US economy, has been for over hundred years. Immigrating to the US requires years of preparation, long term planning, and giving up on other luxuries and opportunities. When the government starts breaking promises by changing rules and moving the goalposts overnight, it discourages participation.
The government/USCIS could invest in the adjudication process to make it more robust. But they choose to leverage it for political gains instead. It helps nobody, not US, not US workers and not non-US workers who actually have merit and rather not cheat.
These are dark days, but Flock and data centers are a couple of things that actually bring people together and take a united stand against something.
What makes us separate from animals and thrive as a civilization is that majority of us do not act on our intrusive ideas without consequences.
Thiel is an exception because he is acting on thsea ideas, causing harm to real innocent people, without any regard for consequences.
They could easily use a Chinese model but they didn't.
On Democracy and Freedom: "I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible"
On Competition: "Competition is for losers"
On Technology and Control: "One of the things I like about technology is that when technology is unregulated, you can change the world without getting approval from other people. At its best, it's not subject to democratic control and not subject to the majority, which I think is often hostile to change"
On Reputation: "I'd rather be seen as evil than incompetent"
We often chat where the business might be heading in future. An uncomfortable scenario is what if a frontier tech company decides to offer our customers the same products that we do.
There's a lot of pressure on AI adoption so the company has partnered with various tech companies to build intelligent systems on top of proprietary data and mathematical models.
If OpenAI is indeed using customer data to train their models to win a $1m prize, then it throws a giant IP question at the partnerships that affects multi billion dollar businesses.