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dmv

377 karma · joined March 26, 2008

Dan Vogel openid: http://dmv.transient.net/ linked in: http://www.linkedin.com/in/dmvogel twitter: dmv
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dmv··on Stackoverflow Eating Away at Experts-Exchange
I argue correlation/causation all the time -- but this is really a semantics argument on both our parts. The statement was "There's nothing in this graph that suggests market share is being taken away." I suppose the emphasis could be placed either on taken or away.

No graph can show action ('taken') so as to demonstrate causation. That's why so many arguments are susceptible to "correlation/causation" trouble. As you suggest, there are any number of causes for the data given. To seek proof of causation from a single graph is a flawed venture.

But if we look at whether market share was reduced ('away'), an observation may be made from a single graph. Not to say 'why' or 'how much', but the observation is still valid. If you sell 90 cars last year, and 110 cars this year -- and I sell 5 comparable cars last year and 50 comparable cars this year, I have "taken market share" from you in a generally accepted sense. Within the market space of two, I have more share of our market this year than the previous, even if your sales did not decrease. It doesn't matter how I did it (cause). It may not be true next year (correlation). It may not be universally true -- if there were 500 of this kind of car sold last year, and only 400 cars this year, your share of the total market increased.

My conclusion before, and again: "the mix has steadily changed. If that's not market share loss, what is it?"

dmv··on Stackoverflow Eating Away at Experts-Exchange
decrease in monthly uniques (-2.69%) against continued strong growth (10.70%)? The overall market is growing because there are two (2M visitors/month combined, vs 900k a year ago). But the mix has steadily changed. If that's not market share loss, what is it?
dmv··on Google CEO says looking to buy smaller firms
Because dodgeball, with its user base growth story, was not enough.

http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/10/18/dodgeballcom-officially... http://gigaom.com/2007/04/15/dodgeball-founder-quits-google/

Or Jaiku.

dmv··on Ask HN: Why do airlines still use "black boxes" ?
or you are flying through an electrical storm...
dmv··on Profit per employee for some large tech companies
I think this accounting discussion at the per-employee metric is getting out of hand. We're facing a very real apples-and-oranges conversation on expense when comparing Oracle (software) versus Amazon (retail). The margin -- and revenue -- focuses are completely different. If Amazon sustains growth with a 15% profit margin, that's cause for celebration; if Oracle's margin dropped to 15%, heads would roll.
dmv··on Ask HN: Taking the Long View
Consider "Built to Last"

http://www.amazon.com/Built-Last-Successful-Visionary-Compan...

by Jim Collins

http://www.jimcollins.com/lib/books.html

and Jerry Porras, which is an analysis of companies that did that. Vision, of course, but not visionary products. Vision that leads a sustainable, cohesive culture.

dmv··on Amazon announces Elastic MapReduce
In making this argument, you've missed the point of Amazon vs Google/Microsoft.

From http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/magazine/16-05/mf_amazon?cur...:

Bezos doesn't disagree. "I'd be surprised if no one else does this," he says, pausing for effect. "It's a really good idea!" And there may be an ace up his sleeve. Any economist will tell you that a commodity business -- storing and processing data, for instance -- is a mug's game, with prices that plunge inevitably toward the cost of production (in the case of bits, pretty close to zero). That's music to Bezos' ears. "Commodity businesses don't scare us," he says. "We're experts at them. We've never had 35 or 40 percent margins like most tech companies."

dmv··on My Manhattan Project: How I helped build the bomb that blew up Wall Street.
One of the flaws of these articles is that they are vastly simplifying the instruments built. From reading, you might think that you understand how to build a CMO or CDO, or to analyze one. I don't, and you don't. I am not actually sure that, after the author of this article's software went into place anyone could. The government has had months to examine the private books of some of our more nationalized-like asset managers, and is still throwing darts. Regulation that requires revealing everything, but does not require minimum standards, is like being able to bypass QA and security reviews by providing access to the source code... to multi-million line programs. Yes, eventually you can work it all out, but not in time to be helpful.
dmv··on Why I'm Missing the iPhone gold rush
Lux Delux exists for both PC and iphone (Lux DLX). The PC version is multiplayer, networked, variable AIs, user generated maps. I think most of that's true for Lux DLX. You have to pay for it, but it is worth it if you're a risk player.

http://sillysoft.net/lux/

http://sillysoft.net/lux/touch/

(I am just a periodic addict)

dmv··on PDF Miner
For a one-off use, writing code (and finding a coder) might be overkill. I have been impressed by the results produced by http://www.pdftoword.com, which would render to Word or RTF from extremely weird pdf formatting. You should be able to safely convert from there.
dmv··on Leaving Amazon: What I learned over the last four years
Basically all desks and tables at Amazon are still door desks, based on the company's origins:

* http://glinden.blogspot.com/2006/01/early-amazon-door-desks....

* http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/85/bezos_2.html

It is questionable whether in the age of IKEA, the door desk is still truly frugal, but it is a very tangible reminder of the principle. Very tangible, very sturdy.

dmv··on The Global Warming Heretic - NYTimes On Freeman Dyson
We may adjust the period, but I do not think people are suggesting that we're making an irreversible change to the planet? Planet heats up, various complex mechanisms kick in, planet cools. The million-year average temperature of this planet is mostly governed by distance to the closest star. Is there much discussion about our planet getting closer to the sun? I don't pay much attention. If it was, I would very much listen to Dr. Dyson. Our fear and panic is about an irreversible change to the planet as we know it -- those complex mechanisms may not be pleasant for current life on the planet (ask the Dinosaurs, or anything living through an Ice Age). Environmentalism is mostly about conservation and continuity of the present biosphere. The planet will be fine, the planet will continue to have a climate, the climate will continue to cycle.
dmv··on Twitter confirms paid pro accounts on the way
I wonder how much sustainable revenue something like this would bring in. I imagine any number of us on this site would throw down a couple of bucks ($25/year like flickr et al, $3-10/month, etc) in support of twitter... initially. If they compromise the API feature set for advanced account features, that will reduce the feel of twitter; if they do not, any twitter feature will be replicated elsewhere. Tough situation, except they've got a lot of good will right now (ie, I would pay today for an account without much more of a bonus than a supporter button).
dmv··on The Javascript Trap
That does not -- and should not -- immediately follow. If you consider your look and feel software to be your exclusive value-add, you are not a candidate for FOSS and RMS is irrelevant. The traditional SOAS advantage is availability and data access; having your client code freely available does not reduce either advantage. Accessing is not (should not) be equivalent to access.

If I had the front-end javascript source code to gmail or salesforce or basecamp, that would neither give me access to other user's data, nor give me free access. Proof: I do have access to their complete front-end source code, just minified. Having it more readable would just be convenient.

Minification / Obfuscation != Security. Don't put anything in your front end code that you would not want an adversary to read (true of the backend too, if perhaps less urgently).

dmv··on Why Cloud Based Load Testing Is A Killer App
"Virtual Stress-free Testing in the Cloud" http://aws.typepad.com/aws/2009/02/virtual-stressfree-testin...

Has links to several load testing products using EC2.

dmv··on Mechanical Turk: Profitable or Not?
I should also clarify that my figures are slight underestimates of the actual figures: I can only "see" Mechanical Turk through the eyes of an average worker. So I cannot see if a requester asks multiple people to complete the same HIT and, sometimes, I cannot observe the details for HITs for which I have not passed the qualification test. I still think that the numbers will be at the same order of magnitude.

I am not sure if that's a valid assumption. Almost every HIT I've written has been at least 2x (and typically 3+x) for redundancy. It is cheaper/faster to code for consensus than verify results. I have seen several HITs for which the task is likely massively redundant.

dmv··on $400 Unlocked Developer G1 Banned From Accessing Paid Apps [Android]
Another case study for security by obscurity. A crypto-DRM system would not necessarily make a developer's life easier, and would probably be of limited value (and more CPU expense).

As a potential dev, I applauded the unlocked dev phone offer. But being unable to download paid apps dramatically reduces the utility especially for a small-shop, not yet Android committed dev. If hidden folders was the "launch-ready" store solution, it may be a while before this is corrected.

dmv··on 41% of museums don't know how dogs actually walk
Dog gait is fascinating. My dog "single tracks" -- his front and rear prints converge. As he walks faster in snow (so I can see it), the prints converge from : : to . .

You can kind of see the principle in a photo on his (very old) page: http://corvis.catell.us/

When he runs free, it is a straight line of four prints and then a body length: . . . . . . . .

I'm surprised I can't easily find pictures of this. German Shepherds do this, as do many other dogs. http://www.dpca.org/JEC/illustrated_standard/Gait/gait.htm

In snow, it is obvious why this is advantageous. And yet I've never seen a museum use this print pattern in their "follow the stickers to a display" tricks.

dmv··on Sad Day For Microsoft: 5,000 Laid Off, Earnings And Revenues Down
Not all of the tech impact will be negative. There was a serious impending office space glut in Seattle and Bellevue coming; Microsoft has been the tenant every developer wanted. With the all-but-done deals collapsing, and anticipations of space contraction:

* South Lake Union: http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/395046_msftofficespac...

* Eastside: http://seattle.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2009/01/19/da...

...the glut will be even more pronounced. Good for growing companies that might want to increase their Class A space; much stronger negotiation leverage.

dmv··on Buckminster Fuller's Universe
The dymaxion house was not exactly a tepee design. He recognized that most interesting materials are stronger under tension than compression -- steel, for example. This is part of the power of the geodesic (tension spreads throughout the structure, yielding global tension and localized compression). The houses were designed with a load-bearing center shaft, and the structure pulled from it. At least in the designs I've seen -- and in the aluminum building shown in the article (look at the "foundation").

But similar to a tepee, the top would also open (and rotate) for ventilation purposes -- domes and round structures have useful air circulation patterns.

dmv··on The Difference Between Building a Business and Building a Brand
In 2003, Dell Computer Corp. dropped "computer" from its name and became Dell Inc. (That's always a bad sign.)

Are they calling a top for Apple? (http://www.engadget.com/2007/01/09/apple-drops-computer-from...)

dmv··on My visit to American Apparel
I'm being prompted for a twitter account and password when loading that page. Anyone else?

Looks like it is this script: http://twitter.com/statuses/user_timeline/venturehacks.json?...

Seems a little rude. I don't like a generic dialog box popping up asking for my credentials to an unrelated site...

dmv··on Does Amazon S3 really save money?
James Hamilton posted a fairly robust model of how to think about this (and evaluate S3), just prior to joining Amazon.

http://perspectives.mvdirona.com/2008/12/22/TheCostOfBulkCol...

His is a more datacenter-level view (considering $/GB, from the perspective of arbitrary GB), but builds a convincing case why S3 @ $0.18/GB is fair).

dmv··on The Daily Routines of Interesting People
Kant express himself in 140 characters or less? That would be fascinating.
dmv··on Evan - Twitter needs a better policy on Usernames
Did you pick McDonalds.com because of this?

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.10/mcdonalds.html

Because that's the first thing that came to mind reading this complaint. That was back in the wild days of the Internet, when official company spokespeople could say:

  "Are you finding that the Internet is a 
   big thing?" asked Jane Hulbert, a helpful 
   McDonald's media-relations person, with
   whom I spoke a short while ago.
Same thing here. 18 months ago, Twitter's namespace was considered worthless. Now Twitter leads to live commentary on cable television, celebrities use it, and companies need a Twitter Strategy.
dmv··on If you have to lay people off, don't do it this way
Similar to a bit on Arrested Development:

http://www.hulu.com/watch/12317/arrested-development-family-...

Michael: No, no, no, no, pop. You're not doing another one of those Black Fridays, are you? The mass firings?

Narrator: Before firing his employees, George Sr. would be sure to clear the office of its valuables.

[Employees loading a truck full of office equipment]

Ted: So when do we get to see our fancy new offices?

George Sr.: [closing the truck door] When you get your fancy new jobs. You're all fired.

Narrator: The employees never saw it coming, although their first task was to unload their equipment from a truck.

dmv··on Funeral director had $250 million stash of IBM stock
Buffett has a private jet company as well, btw.
dmv··on You Can't Get Different Results Doing The Same Thing
The obligatory XKCD: http://xkcd.com/242/

Although I am not really comfortable implying that the Bush administration is acting more like scientists...

dmv··on America's Other Auto Industry
As the article hinted at, part of that question rests on ownership. Profits "shipped to another country" are ultimately the property of the shareholders. If all of the shareholders are American, then the profits get shipped to Japan and then returned to America in the form of dividends and share buybacks. There are legal issues, of course, regarding taxation and jurisdiction, but it does make you wonder. There are plenty of companies in Panama (et al) which the US Government would like to have enough evidence to prove are American owned...
dmv··on Kaizen for Developers: No Inventory
I disagree with the blanket statement that "spending 10x more on hardware will give you roughly 10x more value", especially in the context of this article. You only receive 10x value increase IF your software will scale to use the better/more hardware AND your software is rate-limited by hardware AND you receive value based on the speed of the software. Those are pretty big predicates. Of course, there are sensible ranges and strawman ranges. That's true for programming talent, too. But the article wasn't advocating for hiring more people.

The idea of the article is that footprint matters and needs to be reexamined periodically. This is true for programmers (sadly) as well as hardware. "Hardware is cheap" is not a sustainable growth substitute for efficient solutions. We see the same thing with outsourcing, where a company discovers that ten programmers for the price of one does not always yield the desired outcome (faster, cheaper, better).

Because of course everyone wants to be in a position to use your math (10x more on hardware == 10x more value), but you can not be confident of that unless you know that your solution has a hardware bottleneck. And you don't know that until you drain the swamp (or stress test extensively).

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