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dmurray

11,329 karma · joined January 2, 2014

Email me: davidmurrayELEVEN@gmail.com - replace the number that's in words with digits
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dmurray··on US Forces Exit Iraq
Shouldn't there be some quotes from the US leadership? Normally this would be a chance to claim a military victory, a "mission accomplished".

Perhaps the US are trying not even to acknowledge it. A reputable newspaper would normally include "the Department of War was contacted for comment" but maybe that's not appropriate for Reuters.

dmurray··on LA Metro has some of the slowest escalators
Some stations in Prague were at 200 cm/s, according to some sources [0] before EU regulations cut it to a maximum of 90 cm/s (TFA puts Prague at 65 cm/s today, and you know, I'm not on a Prague escalator right now, so I suppose I'll trust them).

I can't find a better source for just how fast the Prague escalators were, but as an occasional user they seemed more than twice as fast as London or Paris which TFA gives as 65-75 cm/s.

They felt dangerous to step onto, but I never saw anyone actually have an accident. The metro in Prague is also deeper than most.

[0] https://www.expats.cz/czech-news/article/prague-s-speedy-len...

dmurray··on Revealing the details of how OpenAI agents hacked Hugging Face
Brute forcing every move, no matter how stupid, is a great strategy if you have the resources to do it.

Run the same protocol again, but have the agents think they had limited resources or that HuggingFace was rate limiting them, and they'd find something you'd consider smarter.

Computers don't have a sense of elegance by default. Elegance emerges from constraints.

dmurray··on Fixing the Portobello Police Station Clock
Also, it's not illegal to travel when covered in nitrate dust. Maybe you really were working with explosives or fertilizers earlier in the day. So it really should be just a flag to check that you don't still have the explosives with you.
dmurray··on AMD's random number generator can't generate a 0?
I would be very concerned if an RNG simply produced a natural 0xf379aa46d1086bca.
dmurray··on Pre-Greek: The lost language hidden within Ancient Greek
Are there any large lakes in Polynesia? The Māori, Hawaiians, etc are one group of people I would expect to make a distinction between lakes (puddles, really) and open ocean.
dmurray··on The engineering behind the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve
It doesn't really matter. 45,000 acres for a tank farm, or multiple tank farms, would be basically free by the standards of this project. Yes it's "an area the size of Washington DC" but it wouldn't be in Washington DC, where rent is expensive, it would be on some low-value desert land that the military might otherwise use as an artillery range.

Storing it in underground salt caverns is more secure, not necessarily cheaper.

dmurray··on Keys Not Included: recovering the signing keys for US driver's license barcodes
But if the forger claims his name is John Smith (or his date of birth is xx/xx/2004) he will edit the human-readable part.

If he pairs the edited human-readable part with a real barcode copied from a real license in someone else's name, then anyone inspecting the license will see the documentation matches his claim, and if they also use this site to check for fake barcodes it will confirm the barcode was really issued by the California DMV.

dmurray··on Keys Not Included: recovering the signing keys for US driver's license barcodes
This is a great investigation but I have two small nits:

> the ZNB field is not empty and not garbage: it contains a well-formed 71-byte DER ECDSA signature, correctly Ascii85-encoded, with the right prefix and a plausible length. But it fails the cryptographic check instantly, because it was signed with somebody else's key.

Seems doubtful! I expect the forgers used a real signature from another card instead, so it has the right key but the wrong data. Reverse engineering the process as the author did and making up their own key wouldn't be of any value to the forgers.

> I built a little demo to check the signatures across California, New York, and Virginia: take a picture of the barcode and check it here.

This is not wrong, but should come with a little warning. A real verifier needs to additionally check the encoded data matches the human-readable data on the front of the card.

dmurray··on ER visits for gambling disorders doubled after expanded online gambling market
Sportsbooks typically pay back more like 90%, brick and mortar casinos 90%-99% depending on the game. I don't know what Ontario mandates for regulated online casinos, but I'd guess they're at the high end of that and focus on volume, return custom and dark patterns rather than extreme house edge.

If it's 98%, the average household loses 0.2% of their income gambling.

dmurray··on Can we stop with the uptime percentages?
Actually I think it's better if everything fails at once and everyone can take the day off (thanks, AWS!). Having your CI fail one day and your package repository the next might well cost you two days of productivity.
dmurray··on Can we stop with the uptime percentages?
They already don't work for 130+ days of holidays, weekends, vacations and sick leave. What's another two days?

Probably I already ask them to spend 2+ days attending HR or compliance training or listening to senior management tell them about sales targets.

But the point is, that 1% extra productivity requires the sometimes staggering cost of making the software 10x or 100x more reliable.

dmurray··on Can we stop with the uptime percentages?
I usually tell people you don't need as much reliability as you think.

Three nines reliability is great for most purposes. 8 hours downtime a year.

If your system produces money at a constant rate, it captures 99.9% of the available money. Even two nines or one nine might be pretty good on that basis, when the alternative is spending 2x or 10x as much - let's build another unreliable system with that money that captures some other independent market opportunity.

Poor reliability is a problem where you need to chain many systems together, or where the cost of a single failure is very large compared to a success. Or - as happens commonly because of load - if your periods of unreliability are correlated with periods of maximum opportunity, like an e-commerce site failing on Black Friday or a trading system failing when the market is most busy. But if you don't have one of those cases, evaluate whether investing in reliability is actually worth it to you.

GitHub is an example where two nines of reliability ought to be OK. The argument against it is that it's bad marketing to have an unreliable service, especially one aimed at software engineers. And if GitHub is largely a marketing play by Microsoft anyway (do they really make back its cost in enterprise subscriptions?) then marketing considerations need to drive its reliability.

dmurray··on Doing Everyone Else's Job
One of the things I hate about my current job is that it's impossible to do this.

Everything is locked behind multiple layers of permissions. It takes weeks to get the correct permissions set up even for my actual job (which I see any time changing roles here, or when onboarding new hires). Getting the permissions to jump in and improve some other part of the system that I don't officially own - even though I might get granted them if I ask nicely, because nobody knows who is actually meant to have what permissions - is so much higher friction than asking the "right" person.

dmurray··on Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes
> I am around 1600 elo in over the board I can mop up Astra Fable etc even if I give them literal infinite time and all the subagents and internet access.

I don't believe this.

You refer to "subagents", so this is not just an LLM but an LLM with some kind of agentic harness. Any reasonable harness and prompt, given internet access and appropriately prompted to succeed on this task, is more than capable of firing up Lichess or chess.com and relaying moves back to you. The free levels will be enough to beat you.

A frontier model can also likely one shot a chess engine that plays at your level, again if given an environment in which it can do that.

I completely believe the LLM on its own can't play a full game of chess at your level. Though I'd bet that with enough reinforcement learning it is possible to train a pure transformer architecture to do that. We just don't do it because there are other approaches that play chess much better.

dmurray··on The GDR and Vietnam: From Fake Coffee to Coffee Empire
How does that work, are people from East Prussia today entitled to come and live and work in Germany? Or was that right dropped at some point? Or only ever available to those of German descent (which seems uncomfortably close to the values of the previous German regime, and surely would require some paperwork to establish)?

The region that was once East Prussia has now mostly been ruled by Russia since longer than almost anyone there has been alive.

dmurray··on Mullenweg has returned as CEO after attempted board ouster
I think any interpretation of this that would measure "a third of... shopping" by number of individual sites rather than dollar volume is disingenuous at best.

> About a third of all non-big-box/amazon online shopping runs through Woocommerce installations

And as for this:

> 2.84M vs 4.34M is quite a wide margin, wouldn't you agree?

No, I wouldn't. I think that's within the margin of error for the typical methodology of this kind of research. They're the same number.

dmurray··on Mullenweg has returned as CEO after attempted board ouster
> About a third of all non-big-box/amazon online shopping runs through Woocommerce installations. Much more than Shopify, which is the next biggest.

Source? This source [0] puts Shopify 10x ahead of WooCommerce on GMV. They're close on number of installations. That roughly matches my experience working in this space in 2022, though it's definitely possible our customers weren't representative of the market as a whole.

[0] https://www.sanjaydey.com/shopify-vs-woocommerce-why-brands-...

dmurray··on Astra and Fable still hack on simple variants of alignment evals from 2025
Let it iterate, give it access to the cheap models, and tell it part of the requirements is that the cheap models shouldn't be able to solve it with such and such a prompt. I expect it will be able to zoom in on something.

One shot generating a problem of exactly the difficulty the user has in mind is a very difficult problem for anyone. "IT security students" span a wide range of capabilities, but I would expect most of them are worse than qwen3.8-2.7b at this kind of work.

dmurray··on Growing proof that autonomous cars save lives
Your car does that already. It has a superhuman braking system that saves a lot more lives than cruise control, though not quite sub-millisecond in its reaction time.
dmurray··on .gitignore Everything by Default
I try to structure my work in such a way that "git add ." is a sensible thing to do. I stashed or committed outstanding changes before starting on this feature, and I did exactly enough work for one commit since then. And the state of the project right now is what I've built and tested, so it's a good candidate to go into version control.

Changes that are needed to get the project to run right in the dev environment, but that should never be committed, are a smell: I move them to config that doesn't get committed.

Increasingly with agents I'm likely working on multiple features in parallel (I haven't adopted git worktrees but I probably should). Even then I try to lay out code so concurrent changes touch disjoint parts of the codebase, so I can do "git add Widgets/FooWidget/" and the ten files modified under there will be the right things to commit.

Maybe 30% of the time I find I have done work that belongs in multiple commits and I need to break it up. Even then I often end up doing "git add -p ." to interactively pick the parts I want to add.

dmurray··on The largest electric aircraft just flew [video]
Really, a prototype airplane, the first of this size ever built with this novel propulsion system, had engineers involved in the design?
dmurray··on Holden's Lightning Flight
The "ballsy move" is completely separate from the mistake.

I don't think there was anything particularly ballsy, or perhaps even reckless, about agreeing to test the taxiing behaviour. It never crossed his mind that this could lead to a situation that got out of his control. Starting the airplane was a complete accident.

Getting the airplane airborne once it was running out of runway - and then landing it again - did take balls, but is not really the part of the incident that the review board was there to scrutinise.

dmurray··on Dutch central bank moves share of gold from U.S., Canada to London
If they sell enough of it in the US and buy enough in London, traders who take the other side of that position will physically move it to London.

That's exactly the service the commodities markets provide: they will absorb a small trade without anyone incurring the costs of shipping precious metals, and they know who to call to get it shipped once there's enough supply/demand imbalance to make shipping it worthwhile.

dmurray··on 'Mad honey' that can stop your heart is being sold online
But you also don't touch it, eat it, or stand under it when it rains, so the opportunity to burn it by mistake is limited.
dmurray··on Lawmakers added $1 to car insurance policies. That money paid for Flock cameras
Afraid for your life if you were to confront the thief.

That reasonably covers pretty much all cases, especially in a state where lots of people have guns.

dmurray··on U.S. State Department pauses immigrant visa applications
And lots of expat-friendly countries that are tolerant of working on repeated tourist visas rather than a full immigrant visa, but still require visa runs every month or three.
dmurray··on A curmudgeon tries a language server
I once inherited an APL system which was just an image. I didn't know where to start trying to get function definitions out of it and into some kind of version control and eventually ported to something else. I'm interested to know how much better it would have gone with LLMs.
dmurray··on When str.lower() is a security vulnerability in Python
It's not particularly unusual in Python, because it's normal that important functionality is implemented in other languages by a diverse set of third parties.

That said, this isn't a security vulnerability, it's just a bug. To meet a reasonable threshold for being a security issue, you need to show a real system that has an issue caused by this, and then the vulnerability is in that system, rather than in Python.

I'll grudgingly allow that a buffer overflow or an SQL injection possibility - in a library advertised as safe against that kind of bug - is a security issue, because there's so much history of turning those into real exploits. But a choice of library or language that makes those bugs easier to write - the idna library, or C or PHP say, is not itself a security issue.

dmurray··on Why some US restaurants are banning tips
Sounds like you talked to the locals who might end up being expected to pay tips. The ones who might expect to receive tips would have a different point of view.
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