> My heuristic is to book a little over two weeks in advance, but not to book much more in advance of that in case plans change or want to change, since in expectation price changes are pretty small and maybe you decide to stay an extra day for some reason even if you are confident you won’t cancel.
N00b here - is that actually where the optimal prices emerge, rather than many months prior? I used to wonder why the optimal prices didn't emerge the day before the flight, because I'd assume airlines would rather fill a seat with lower profits than waste the space, but I guess that could cause forecasting issues if everyone waited until the last second.