digler999

> How many hundreds of engineers tried the same thing

And you bet your ass if I tried and succeeded I'm not going to come here and brag about it, risking whatever ephemeral edge I had. If I did this, I would do it for dollars, not karma points.

probably to save money. that sucks, because even if you swapped it with another defective one, it would be worth it if you just had to replace the CPU every 18 months.

It's expensive, no doubt. Since I'm already in $1k for the 1815+, maybe if/when mine dies, I will try to haggle with them for a $600 upgrade instead of RMA'ing the old unit. Might work out better for everyone: I know the new unit doesn't have the faulty Atom chip, I have a faster NAS, and thats one less RMA they have to turn around (I'd still mail back the broken one).

> Source: Have worked in HFT the past 10 years.

OT question: how would I get into acquiring market data to try my own backtesting strategies ? Is there anyway to "get in" without putting up $5k + for the data ? I'm not green to this, I worked at a prop shop for a year writing market feed handlers. I know the dangers of overfitting data and how hard it is to make money (so I'm not deluded by a fantasy). I want to start out just for fun doing backtesting and see if I can scrape out a (paper) profit, but accessing historical data seems to be the hard part. I dont think online services that offer this would work for me because I want to use intraday data and replay many times with different parameters. I want access to "the whole firehose" if you will.

I'm guessing the CPU must be soldered to the board on these ? I have a 1815+ that is currently working, and now I'm afraid to shut it off. I wonder if the DS2015 (not sure of #, the 10gbe model) uses this defective part ?

well I attempted to look, but there's too many pages for snake oil "beat the house" systems. I may have been wrong since I cannot find evidence, but if a wheel were biased, people would eventually detect it and exploit it. So at the very least, they would analyze the money drops and see an abnormal money flowing out of one particular table.

better would have been a dead-mans switch: if they let go of the iPhone for more than 6 seconds the program wipes all traces of itself off.

> Whatever they choose to do will end up creating more jobs and boosting wages in something else.

not if they stash it in an offshore tax-haven in the Cayman Islands.

The way I saw it, the "build a wall" campaign was more about mobilizing the frustration many felt about cultural changes and (perceived) social costs of illegal immigration and less about "they're taking our jobs" (though I'm not saying that argument was never made).

I think it was about people becoming upset at seeing their communities change for the worse, seeing signs and publications coming up in spanish, seeing mexican names in headlines about high-profile crime, seeing mexicans use EBT (welfare) cards at the grocery, hearing anecdotal stories about traffic incidents where "a mexican hit me and had no insurance..", and seeing mexican gangs come to their town.

I think a lot of those voters felt unheard and tired of the politically correct excuses used to defend them. And when someone finally stood up and said "I'm going to fight this [ one precursor that enabled these changes] ", they were immediately sold.

(I'm not going to put an "I'm not a racist" disclaimer here, you all should be mature enough to interpret whether or not I actually endorse those stances or whether I am explaining the motivations of others who do)

there aren't many other software bugs in casinos that affect the money. They're usually graphics-related or crashes, and they usually just restart the machine and write a bug report.

If they are related to money, they pull the machine out of the field until a new software version is fixed. A gaming company I used to work at had an issue with multi-jurisdictional machines that worked in Mexico but could display english or spanish. The machines could also change denomination, say from $0.05 to $0.25. There was some bug where if you reset the power, you could get it to bump your credits up from 20 nickels to 20 quarters (or might have been 20 pesos to 20 cents), it was something dramatic and easily exploitable that was fixed promptly.

however, at least during the winter months, any waste heat given off should technically offset one's heating bill. It may not heat your whole house but since "energy cannot be created or destroyed", it should help at least part of the year.

> They were charged and pled,

Are you saying these people are innocent, and by some strange stroke of chance and luck, they all boarded a plane, flew across the world, and randomly won thousands of dollars ?

> would you want to take a chance with a jury or bench trial in a hostile (to you) jurisdiction?

hell yes I would. People love to rally behind the underdog and see the casinos lose. Look how much publicity the cases get when a machine malfunctions and displays $1,526,838,003.35 on the win meter, and like clockwork, they file a lawsuit to try to claim a billion-dollar payout.( they dont win, but still, people love to rally behind the plaintiff in those cases).

I'd say for the most part, the criminal courts are hostile to all defendants, not just by definition but by the "plea deal" schemes that prosecutors use and by the puritanical tendencies our society shows in their harsh punishments against "offenders" (viz. the drug war, sex offenses, gun charges, etc)

in las vegas, the hold percentage (on average - since each property can do whatever they like as long as its within regulatory limits) was ~8% in 2016 in vegas, and ~6% statewide in nevada [1]

[1] (pdf warning) http://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/nv_slot_hold.pdf

Yes pai gow or 21 or (the best odds not including card-counting, IIRC), baccarat have better odds. But, if you go to a premier casino on the strip, you might not find a table you can afford. It's not uncommon for them to have a couple $5 tables and the rest $25 (per bet) and up. Mathematically it's a better choice, but a $25 buy-in costs $500 which you can lose in minutes if you're unlucky. Not a lot of people can stomach that (nor should they, as my original argument was for the entertainment value of gaming).

because it's a threat to their business ?

exactly. and vegas in particular has the best odds in the nation. It's more typical of indian/riverboat casinos to ratchet up their house edge. vegas you're more likely to see 99% payback machines (of course it varies). They'll do other things to make up for it though, like having fewer $5 blackjack tables and more $25 minimum tables.

vegas can afford to turn their hold percentage much lower because millions of people go there every year and there's competition. Versus a lone indian casino in california's central valley.

> For the House to win and be profitable, the average person has to lose on average.

and if people always lost, vegas would collapse because people would stop going.

You could make the argument that any other expensive hobby is also throwing away money:

* boating: buy a brand new boat for $65k, sell it 8 years later for $35k, plus $5k in total operating costs/insurance. You just "lost" 35k (not counting interest)

* rock climbing: buy $3k of gear and travel, $2k on lessons. Fall and break your arm for $6k, $11k "lost" for a couple years of entertainment.

* "travel", spend $6-10k on hotel, airfare, meals, in 2 weeks, all we have left to show for it is "memories". Great "investment".

(disclaimer: I'm not actually against the things I just mentioned. Only pointing out that they are "throwing away money" just like a weekend in vegas). Unless you're some hyper-disciplined monk who only uses money for humble necessities, you, too are throwing away money just like people do in a casino.

I'm at work, and it's blocking "casino" sites but google this [1] for a start:

"Roulette - Biased Wheels and Wheelhead Speed - Casino News Daily"

I read the cached version, its an advisory for casinos about how to look out for biased wheels. I'll look again tonight when I get home.

> At what point does playing smart become fraud?

when you use an active device that essentially guarantees you will win. Elsewhere in the thread someone quoted the Nevada regulations that explicitly state this. I'm sure each state has them now. Had they arrested these guys and didn't find an iPhone with custom software, or a confession that they were remitting their winnings back to Russia, they probably wouldn't be able to charge them with anything (but they could still kick them out of all casinos).

you'd have to do a hardware mod, and gaming is a regulated industry. so every mod you do has to be submitted to a state or nationwide gaming regulatory authority, takes months (at least) to get approval, and costs easily $100k.

Not to mention full regression testing on the statistics of the game. You would have to "re-prove" the validity of the RNG , which requires another QA cycle, statistical expert, and game designer (to ensure that the frequency and distribution of wins matches the specification sheet)

(and they have an internal counter, and if there is a meaningful deviation from the 1/38 slots they will rebalance or pull the wheel)

say you're playing a $5 game and your bankroll is $100. If you make one mistake, either at counting or basic strategy, you just gave up 5% of your ROI, over 3x the "edge" you get by counting. I remember hearing the slogan "If you can't play absolutely perfect basic strategy for hours at a time without making a single mistake, counting is not for you".

They aren't charging the defendants with a 'moral' crime. I'm not sure what their exact charges are, and they depend on minutae like the article said: "crossing state lines makes it a felony conspiracy to commit fraud". Gaming regulations are written to favor the house. You're correct that we wouldn't expect them to be charged with "tampering with a gaming device" because they never touched it, and they got comparatively light sentences (2 years) compared to Nevada where you can easily get 5-10. Some states may have a new law like "using a computer to manipulate a gaming device" or similar. I think they put that one on the books so that you can't cheat roulette by calculating the trajectory of the ball, or identify unique variances in cards. Regardless, you can expect the laws everywhere to catch up after this incident.

I disagree that the "system is designed to beat you" or that the casino "cheats". The casino is there for entertainment. If you don't use it in moderation it can ruin your life just like any other vice: alcohol, drugs, sex, etc.

If you have $1000-$5000 (or more), you can fly out to Vegas for the weekend, have a really good time (gaming is only part of that), fly home, and you've got a significant chance that you'll either win or break even. You might also lose, and that's the excitement cycle that is gambling. But even if you lose you can also have a good time at a show/nightclub/concert, every kind of themed bar, meet women, etc, so if you discard "winning money" as the primary objective, gambling isn't designed to beat you.

If you go to the casino every day after work, don't be surprised that you will not win anything, or that it might escalate just like any other drug (spending more, not happy when you win, etc).

What shocks me is that these guys have the technical prowess to reverse engineer the game/PRNG, but they didn't have the sense to slow down their pace, or reverse engineer the casino management system to avoid detection (or they didn't think to hide their iphone from the start, they said the first guy was holding it right up to the screen, when $100 spent on a clothing alteration would have allowed him to hide it). If you're going to fly internationally to commit a crime, you should know who you're up against and use adequate countermeasures.

re-read the OP comment about "kidnapping", the "well-known cases" OP referred to weren't as "well-known" as he originally thought, because he couldn't find even one instance of it happening.

when I order, maybe (at most) 25% of the screen that clearly says "Browse our store". Then I see a menu: dairy/produce/breakfast/butcher/bakery. I pick a category, and select a product, then a short, embedded video plays (that is easy to mute/cancel). (The kind of video is where you hover over the thumbnail and it plays, not click a youtube link). Then it says "Today we've got Choice Sirloin for $4.99/lb, farm raised, corn-fed from Johnny's out in Arkansas (quick clip of Johnnys farm). Also consider pairing with this recipe of beets (cue link to purchase beets and all ingredients for sauce ).

Actually, that just occurred to me, if you included recipes with the advertising, that wouldn't bother me at all. Just like reddit's DIY, start with the finished "product", then say " to make this, buy these things" (of course with a shortcut to just add them all to your cart) "and do this:" (cue to video of person making the dish).

but back to advertising, just quick (15s) videos with simple information and price. maybe with sideways scrolling so if I'm looking at margarine, it also has quick links to butter and vegetable oil. Don't skimp on video: each product has the same demo video/advertisement so I can compare them.

I think literature sucks, but I dont go to literature forums and criticize it. I just spend my time doing what I love.

so all software sucks unless it can land you a job ?

say I never walk through the aisles anymore (not saying the store wouldn't allow it, but it's so convenient to pickup that people like me might never do it). I'd no longer get inspiration for meals, or learn about a new brand of cereal, or see that the competitor's eggs are $1 off, or that the bakery just got fresh salmon from Alaska. I would actually want to keep abreast of what products are available in my store.

Bonus if the "updates" (ads) were targeted to me. If I were vegetarian, it should know not to show me about prime rib, for instance. If it sees I only buy granola or mainly health foods, don't give me ads about lucky charms. and not 30 second commercials either, just quick intros, with video/pictures, and a few facts about relevant products.

the paradoxical thing about this is it would actually make me want to watch commercials! if I dont step foot in the store anymore, how will I know what they have ? I will want (!) marketers to give me information about their products. This will be a marketing wet-dream.

That would be wonderful. I guess for some reason I just assumed it would be a luxury. If groceries for one guy for 3 days cost $45 purchased in-store, I'd definitely be comfortable paying $5 more to have someone pick and bag it for me. But I wouldn't pay much more than $10 for doorstep delivery, even though grocery shopping is a stressful experience for me.

I live in the 'burbs and I drive every day anyway. To me, the pain isn't the driving (though for some urban areas I'm sure it is), it's just the hassle of parking and shopping in a crowded, inefficient store (wasting my time), and hauling all my stuff back to the car.

I think theres a deeper psychological issue at play here too: delivered to your door makes you passive, at the "mercy" or whim of the company/person making the delivery. There's a subconscious anxiety associated with waiting in anticipation. Whereas, going out and picking up makes you the active one. Sure the store could make you wait, but if they design their system properly, "ready for pickup" should mean just that. But "out for delivery" could me 5m or 3 hours from now.

I've found that going on my lunch break helps. I buy stuff for lunch, sometimes stuff for dinner, while I'm already in "work mode" and energized, vs going after work when I'm tired. The stores aren't that crowded at lunch time either.