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deafcalculus

4,957 karma · joined March 23, 2016

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deafcalculus··on 37% of jobs in the United States can be performed entirely at home
That's what a lot of people thought in the 2000s, but going by SV salaries the automate or offshore story hasn't really played out! Then again, horses seem to have lost their job in the early 20th century after cars came along, and their population just declined thereafter.
deafcalculus··on Report on Stablecoins [pdf]
You mean what happens when economy does well enough that it starts overheating which forces an exit from the liquidity trap and turns real interest rates positive? I guess we'll find out soon.
deafcalculus··on Who Owns the US National Debt?
I'm not so sure about that. When the Fed was tapering and starting to raise rates back in 2018, the bond market flashed warning signs in December 2018 with long term rates falling sharply and the yield curve inverting.

Then there's also the market expectations of whether the Fed is willing to go with negative interest rates, which would influence the behavior of bond traders.

deafcalculus··on Who Owns the US National Debt?
Pension funds are required to own some percentage of their assets in govt bonds. Also, many high net worth individuals have a strong preference for safe assets like govt bonds. And then there are speculators who think interest rates will fall and they'll make killing by actively trading on long term bonds. So, there will be buyers. Not all of it is being purchased by central banks.
deafcalculus··on Who Owns the US National Debt?
Central bank buying govt debt or QE is basically just maturity transformation. The Fed / ECB / BoE buys 10 year debt and issues cash which is also a form of govt. debt. IMO, when interest rates are as low as they are, it is foolish to issue short term debt. A lot of people like Martin Wolf and John Cochrane have been calling on govts to take advantage of the low interest rates and issue perpetual (or 50 or 100 year) debt and insulate themselves from sharp increase in inflation or interest rates.
deafcalculus··on The World After Capital (2018)
The present inflation suggests that we do not actually have an abundance of capital.
deafcalculus··on My trust in software, an all time low
Ubuntu Snaps made me switch to CentOS (and now RockyLinux).
deafcalculus··on Microsoft Irish subsidiary paid zero corporate tax on £220bn profit last year
Isn't salary a deductible expense?
deafcalculus··on Google Docs will now use canvas based rendering
Mighty seems to want to do that even sooner!
deafcalculus··on AstraZeneca vaccine safe and effective in U.S., Chile, Peru trials
No. Feeling ill is mostly due to the innate immune response which declines with age (so seniors have fewer side effects). The adaptive immunity triggered does not seem to be correlated with the innate response or feeling ill.
deafcalculus··on Was German unification inevitable?
1. Central planning might work today but not in a democracy. Keeping the economy at arms length distance from politics seems essential in a liberal democracy. Pretty sure Amazon wouldn’t be as successful if the leadership was elected by employees / customers / stakeholders.

2. The problem with autocracy + central planning is when things go wrong or the world changes in some important way (or people’s preferences change). No way to correct or replace the administration without revolution.

So, I’d still bet on liberal democracy and capitalism over the long term.

deafcalculus··on Ask HN: How did Apple manage to create such a better chip than Intel?
Both PS5 and Xbox use AMD Zen 2 CPU. I guess you meant that PS5 and Xbox don't use Intel CPUs.

I highly doubt Intel wants to be in the low margin business of supplying console CPUs. Intel's fortune is entirely dependent on whether it can get back advanced process node crown from TSMC.

deafcalculus··on AMD Reveals the Radeon RX 6000 Series, Coming November 18th
Die size is up too. At over 600 mm2, it’s a huge chip.
deafcalculus··on 40 Milliseconds of latency that just would not go away
I liked the article, but it's not entirely clear to me what the cause of the problem was. Linux delays sending out data only if the data size is less than the packet size AND the previous packet in not yet ACKed (Nagle's algorithm). My guess was that this app is doing a write, write, read and hitting the delayed ACK problem.
deafcalculus··on 40 Milliseconds of latency that just would not go away
Was delayed ACKs the problem? Disabling delayed ACKs seems like a better bet than using TCP_NODELAY which turns off Nagle's algorithm.
deafcalculus··on Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B
Lower power versions of what they put in Tegra / Switch? Or perhaps they can whip up something in 1-2 years. I'd be astonished if nVidia doesn't take any interest in smartphone GPUs after this acquisition.
deafcalculus··on Nvidia to Acquire Arm for $40B
nVidia clearly wants to compete with Intel in data centers. But how does buying ARM help with that? They already have an architectural license.

Right now, I can see nVidia replacing Mali smartphone GPUs in low to mid-end Exynos SoCs and the like. But it's not like nVidia to want to be in that low-margin area.

deafcalculus··on The Right to Repair could help address a critical shortage in school computers
At least in the Android market, there is enough competition that this doesn't bother me.
deafcalculus··on TSMC and Graphcore Prepare for AI Acceleration on 3nm
It is getting worse for Flash. There are consumer M.2 SSDs that have huge heatsinks and some even with fans!

Mark Cerny says this is a concern for PS5 which will have user expandable SSD storage. Unlike SATA drives, the M.2 standard doesn't define z-height, and the drives that meet the PS5 min spec are too thick right now.

deafcalculus··on Why Uber's business model is doomed
Too much concentration of wealth and assets and way too much indebtedness. Consumer spending is maxed out in the US. A thought experiment: If you own the world, what would you want to do? Solar energy for those who have nothing to give you in return or space exploration or something else you fancy? This had happened before in the US around 1929. There are some old federal reserve documents that describe exactly this situation. War, inflation, devaluation, and redistribution was the way out.

This is definitely a bigger problem in EU. Greece and Italy are top of the list with this problem and could benefit from a devaluation.

deafcalculus··on The Covid-19 pandemic is forcing a rethink in macroeconomics
Japan has an ageing population. So, it's not GDP or even GDP per capita, but GDP per working hour to look for, and, on that measure, Japan isn't doing too badly.

Japan's problem seems to be very low net household savings and too high savings by corporates. It would be preferable to shift income towards households instead of running up public debt to keep every one employed.

deafcalculus··on Smokers quit in record numbers amid Covid fears
Smoking Prevalence is Low in Symptomatic Patients Admitted for COVID-19: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.05.20092015v...
deafcalculus··on Smokers quit in record numbers amid Covid fears
Awesome! But there's some evidence that smoking reduces the risk of severe COVID somewhat, although that's not a good reason to start again!
deafcalculus··on Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
Which parts of India will become too hot?

I think flooding is going to be a bigger problem in the near term, especially since the state isn't really capable of dealing with heavy rain or floods.

deafcalculus··on Chips Are Getting Noisier
No, but the cost per transistor can keep dropping for years after shrinkage stops. Look at a lot of other things like TVs where competition keeps driving the price down. Unless something new comes up that practically everybody wants, competition will drive down prices and profitability.
deafcalculus··on The case for banning ads in social media
Not saying this is a bad idea, but how will reduction in ads create more demand? If anything, demand will go down because people working in ads will lose jobs or get paid less.
deafcalculus··on Experts who say we shouldn't worry about superintelligent AI are wrong?
Too little data to train on?
deafcalculus··on Web Graphics Done Right
Is that really true with gzipping?
deafcalculus··on Thoughts on Rust bloat
Dynamic libs on the file system are awful. It's OK if the kernel wants to conserve RAM by sharing code pages that are identical, but saving hard disk space with dynamic libs is so painful.
deafcalculus··on The Financialization of the American Elite
It wasn't just the death of communism. Globalization also hurt labor unions. Capital could credibly threaten to move production to low wage countries and often did so. This greatly weakened the unions.
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