260 karma · joined October 6, 2010
However, we need to be careful when using cohort analysis as a technique to predict lifetime value. There are many situations where cohort-based CLV predictions miss the mark by quite a bit.
CLV is a big part of our platform - we run a lot of analysis on the individual customer level. We use probability modeling to calculate accurate CLV numbers, and we do a lot individual-level analysis to detect when high-value customers start fading away.
On the other hand, if someone did verify the illegal content, and posts links with the clear, sole intention of driving others towards the illegal activity - then what?
I don't think you can decouple the link entirely from intention - links are sometimes expressive, as this article points out.
Instead of just giving ultimate, endless rights to link to anything for any reason, we say: base case, free speech, link to anything. But if someone can prove your intentions were illegal (no easy task), you're not necessarily protected.
Intention is a tricky gray area, but this would be in sync with other free speech protections - e.g. someone can press charges for libel on things you publish, but the burden of proof is on them to show the statement was false, harmful, and was made with malicious intent.
Much like newspapers have the right to say whatever they want. Of course, there are limitations. People can sue the NY Times, but it's not easy - the burden of proof is on the people bringing the suit. The 'strict scrutiny' standard, as I understand it, would make it very difficult for someone to attack hyperlinking. It does, however, enable that discussion in the case of extreme situations.
Following your line of reasoning, we'd accept that building a website with the sole intention of linking to kiddie porn would be OK - because the author of those links has no control over what's on the other side.
As with most discussions like these, the trick is in how to draw the line, how to strike the balance.
We're learning that there are large aspects of the customer retention challenge that are consistent across many types of businesses (e.g. for a retailer, how can I tell if my customer is gone for good or just idle?). Of course, some aspects are unique for each vertical. In those cases, we're exploring how we can supplement existing efforts - some of our beta clients have piped results from our analysis into other tools.