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ckardat123

385 karma · joined March 30, 2020

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ckardat123··on Warren Buffett dumps $1.7B of Amazon stock
Here is a Berkshire Hathaway portfolio tracker if anyone is interested:

https://www.quiverquant.com/institutions/BERKSHIRE%20HATHAWA...

Berkshire also sold around $2.8B of Apple stock, although that was a much smaller move as a percentage of their position.

ckardat123··on Trump mints $31B with new official $TRUMP crypto meme coin
Trump's stake is now approximately $55B, on paper. Emphasis on "on paper".

Around 200 Pelosis of net worth: https://www.quiverquant.com/congress-live-net-worth/

ckardat123··on Show HN: I built a dashboard that tracks election fundraising
Let me know if you have any feedback or suggestions. This combines a few previous projects, where I collected data on corporate campaign contributions, with some new work tracking individual donations.
ckardat123··on Show HN: Congressional Fundraising Leaderboard
Note that you can click on a row to see information about corporate donors, congressional stock trades, and more.
ckardat123··on Show HN: Track Congress' Net Worth
Note that these are only rough estimates, based on politicians' disclosed holdings.

Estimates are updated on an hourly basis, using stock price data.

ckardat123··on Show HN: Track Politicians' Finances
I combined a few different datasets to create this tool.

In the future, I'd like to add data showing which companies are lobbying on the different pieces of legislation proposed by a politician.

ckardat123··on Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
House: https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/FinancialDisclosure Senate: https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/home/
ckardat123··on Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
This is my tweet, thanks for sharing!

If anyone is interested, I built a dashboard that tracks the performance of individual congressional stock trades here:

https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/

It also allows you to search for trades by stock, instead of needing to parse through thousands of disclosure forms.

I do want to mention one weakness of my data, which is that I don't currently parse hand-filed disclosures. Most politicians do electronic filings, which are easy to scrape, but some still file by hand. Working on a solution for that, which should hopefully be live before too long.

ckardat123··on Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
If you're interested in the ability to search by stocks and information on how individual trades are performing: https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/

If you're interested in the source data: https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/FinancialDisclosure https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/home/

ckardat123··on Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
The market was roughly flat between when the strategy went live (in may of 2022) and when the post was made.

The backtest goes back further though, which is what is shown in the graph. Could be improved by having a line on the graph showing when it went live.

ckardat123··on Show HN: I built a dashboard to track corporate lobbying
Here's a list of most of the dashboard's features:

- Track lobbying spending over time by publicly traded companies

- See what issues companies are lobbying on

- See the companies with the most lobbying spending over the past quarter

- Look up who's lobbying on a particular issue

- See the performance of a portfolio comprised of the top lobbying spenders.

ckardat123··on SEC asked Coinbase to halt trading in everything except bitcoin, CEO says
I was speaking of sales in terms of share count, not dollar value.
ckardat123··on SEC asked Coinbase to halt trading in everything except bitcoin, CEO says
The CEO of Coinbase has sold more stock in his own company than usual the last couple of months: https://www.quiverquant.com/insiders/COIN
ckardat123··on Treemaps are awesome
I always assumed that heatmaps were a type of treemap
ckardat123··on Senators to Propose Ban on U.S. Lawmakers, Executive Branch Members Owning Stock
Yeah looks like it.

Here's where you can search for the source disclosures - only seeing two trades on her periodic transaction reports: https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/

ckardat123··on Senators to Propose Ban on U.S. Lawmakers, Executive Branch Members Owning Stock
You can see the backtest performance of some of some strategies built around congressional trading data here: https://www.quiverquant.com/strategies/

The holdings and advanced metrics are behind a paywall (apologies in advance).

ckardat123··on Senators to Propose Ban on U.S. Lawmakers, Executive Branch Members Owning Stock
Thanks! Appreciate the suggestion, I'll check out how that looks.
ckardat123··on Senators to Propose Ban on U.S. Lawmakers, Executive Branch Members Owning Stock
I think that if there were a law in place that made it illegal for congressmen to trade, it would be easier to catch insider trading because they would be forced to trade by proxy like you mentioned.

It's really hard to prove someone traded off of insider information if they make a decision to buy/sell for themselves. If they don't tell anyone else why they made the trade, you don't really have any proof that it was made off of material non-public information.

If a congressman is forced to ask someone else to trade for them, they might be careless and you might be able to find evidence via text messages or phone records.

The last time a U.S. Representative got convicted for insider trading, it was because he called his son to tell him to trade a stock that he had insider information on: https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-congressman-chri...

ckardat123··on Senators to Propose Ban on U.S. Lawmakers, Executive Branch Members Owning Stock
Nancy Pelosi holds a ton of Microsoft stock, I believe up to $25M last time I checked.

I haven't checked the NANC holdings, but her Microsoft position has definitely been carrying our Nancy Pelosi Strategy on Quiver.

ckardat123··on Senators to Propose Ban on U.S. Lawmakers, Executive Branch Members Owning Stock
The list on the homepage just shows recent transactions.

You can search for individuals on top to see their full transaction list. Lummis bought up to $100K of Bitcoin in 2021: https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/politician/Cynth...

ckardat123··on Senators to Propose Ban on U.S. Lawmakers, Executive Branch Members Owning Stock
Pretty small out-of-sample window, but we built a trading strategy on top of congressional trading data and it's done well since we launched it last year.

You can see the backtest performance here, but the holdings and advanced metrics are behind a paywall (apologies in advance): https://www.quiverquant.com/strategies/

As others have pointed out, there is a delay between when the trades are made and when they are disclosed and our strategy is able to act on them.

However, this is somewhat countered by the fact that politicians tend to hold stocks for long periods of time.

There are definitely some examples of politicians trading a stock right before a massive market moving event, but I think they are generally looking at a longer time horizon when they are investing.

ckardat123··on Senators to Propose Ban on U.S. Lawmakers, Executive Branch Members Owning Stock
I started building out tools to track congressional stock trading in 2020.

Since then, I believe there have been 9 other proposals similar to this one. None of them have been even called to a vote.

It seem like Congress is pretty unwilling to regulate its own trading.

Until they are, feel free to track the trading here: https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/

ckardat123··on Show HN: I built a dashboard tracking the number of Threads users
It's pretty straightforward, because Instagram displays users' account number on their IG profile.

If someone has an account number of 50,000, it seems to mean that they were the 50,000th person to join.*

I have an Instagram account with a lot of followers, so I've hade a steady stream of notifications coming in about new users joining.

By viewing the profiles of people who just joined the platform, I can see where they were in line and get a general idea of how many users have signed up.

I started checking this intermittently and recording the estimates.

*I don't think this is explicitly stated, but it seems to be true based off of Zuckerberg's posts about user milestones.

ckardat123··on Show HN: I built a dashboard tracking the number of Threads users
It's pretty straightforward, because Instagram displays users' account number on their IG profile.

If someone has an account number of 50,000, it seems to mean that they were the 50,000th person to join.*

I have an Instagram account with a lot of followers, so I've hade a steady stream of notifications coming in about new users joining.

By viewing the profiles of people who just joined the platform, I can see where they were in line and get a general idea of how many users have signed up.

I started checking this intermittently and recording the estimates.

*I don't think this is explicitly stated, but it seems to be true based off of Zuckerberg's posts about user milestones.

ckardat123··on Show HN: I built a dashboard tracking the number of Threads users
No screen scraping involved actually - the data collection process is mostly manual. Can do a longer write-up on the methodology later tonight if there's interest.
ckardat123··on Show HN: I built a dashboard tracking the number of Threads users
Appreciate it!
ckardat123··on Show HN: I built a dashboard tracking the number of Threads users
Note: These numbers are estimates which are generated using the Threads account numbers shown on Instagram pages.

This page is currently being updated semi-manually, which may cause delays in the estimated user count.

ckardat123··on Goodreads has no incentive to be good
RateYourMusic is a pretty nice site for finding movies and music.

I wish that Goodreads was more similar to RYM.

ckardat123··on ChatGPT conversations can be shared publicly
Just testing to see if works with a plug-in I'm developing for Quiver's data: https://chat.openai.com/share/22094cbe-9ec1-4337-a4de-f36a24...
ckardat123··on LobbyFacts – Exposing lobbying in European institutions
That's actually due to a STOCK Act violation (surprisingly common)

Transactions are supposed to be disclosed within 45 days, but they are sometimes disclosed late. The fines for late disclosures are usually a couple hundred dollars at most.

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