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chriscatoya

45 karma · joined October 20, 2013

linkedin.com/in/chriscatoya chriscatoya.com
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chriscatoya··on Boeing proposal to avoid 737-MAX wiring shift does not win U.S. support
Aside from the gallon of blood and pound of flesh we'll see called for in the public/political arena, I really doubt there's any viable fix that won't require pilot training.

As I understand, the 737-MAX blunder is at the core a result of bad incentive alignment baked into their deal with Southwest: Boeing was trying to avoid any FAA "differences" simulator training requirements to make more money in a fleet sales order to Southwest Airlines. If the FAA required level-D simulator training, Boeing agreed to rebate Southwest $1 million for each MAX bought. The training would have cost Southwest $2000 per head. That's $18M for their 9,000 pilots.

source: https://newrepublic.com/article/154944/boeing-737-max-invest...

chriscatoya··on What I Learned From Losing $200M (2015)
After observing the iterative process of modeling complex dynamic systems this resonated:

>“The point of the story,” Rebonato continued, “is that you always come to data with a structural model behind”—meaning some preconception of causes and effects, and therefore some prejudice for how to interpret the data.

chriscatoya··on Why Do Such Ancient People Run America?
I think across the board, Boomers generally haven’t handled the passing of the reins well. This will be a big problem when there are emergency appointments to leadership who haven’t been groomed. At a time when they should be retiring making room for GenXers and Millennials taking up leadership positions, they’re still working. It could be partly due to improved healthcare over the generations. It could also be the work hard, “greed is good” mentality still driving them forward. Either way, there is a disruption to the traditional course of making way for the following generations by taking on roles of mentoring rather than leading, ie emeritus positions.
chriscatoya··on In the 1970s, NYC Dabbled in Carpeted Subway Trains
Unimaginable as this may be, there are trains in Japan sporting green velour seating and wood(?) paneling. They are pristine and glorious-- a far cry from the hard plastics and vinyl we've come accustomed elsewhere to see as appropriate for public transit.
chriscatoya··on Startup Idea: A Better WeWork
I think the biggest reasons WeWork was never a tech company was because they were a real estate company...look at their capital expenditures. Usually, a large part of the ability for tech startups (specifically software) being able to scale is low capex. Adding software to optimize operations wouldn't have changed this for WeWork.

What may have made this more of a tech startup is if WeWork approached the inventory issue like Airbnb. This article lists 8 companies taking that approach https://coworkingmag.com/blog/airbnb-for-office-spaces/

chriscatoya··on Problem Behaviours in Software Development Teams and How to Fix Them
"Everything is urgent," and "Bypassing process to report issues" I think have roots in an inability to appreciate the "Cost of Delay" (and Cost of Delay Divided by Duration) between items of work. Consequently, an inability to prioritize appropriately in terms of importance and urgency across competing needs of various stakeholders. Cost of Delay as a framework is helpful in getting those involved speaking the same language (and scaling) in terms of value, time to result, and value of time cycle. In this respect it isn't always necessarily valuable to "Automate everything possible" - the Cost of Delay (whether in terms of value at risk, or value of the other items that could be done with time savings) isn't there for some tasks.

(disclosure: I ran multiple teams across a game studio with over 1Bn downloads)

Cost of Delay primer: http://blackswanfarming.com/cost-of-delay/

chriscatoya··on How a 2 person startup already uses 26 other tools / services
Of course :) Is it a question of perceived value for you vs limited time/friction or something else? Are there any things in your stack you wish were automatic if someone made that for you today?
chriscatoya··on How a 2 person startup already uses 26 other tools / services
I'm curious about any sort of struggles you (or anyone else too!) run into with deep tool/service stacks like this. I'm currently working on an inbox as an app platform. We want to easily kick off cron jobs and other automations. Things like composing and automatically send a summary of today's commit, or firing off a build when an email arrives at a certain address, and rolling back when a new keyword appears. Any insight or feedback would be greatly appreciated!

Some initial thoughts and questions: Are there integrations between these tools you'd wish to have? Do you see value in integrating commands across toolchains like this to avoid log-ins for standard actions? Have you looked in scripting automation across some of these tools?

chriscatoya··on Disney CEO Bob Iger immediately steps down from CEO position
He was ready to retire anyway and I think he's getting out of dodge while the going is good. He successfully launched their streaming service, and if I were him, I'd also want to get as far away as possible from the hospitality industry given how the spread of covid-19 is going.
chriscatoya··on Steyer claims he divested from fossil fuels a decade, but it's more complicated
Oh it gets better: Farallon Capital Management (the company he founded) had a major stake in Kinder Morgan which owned the Trans Mountain Pipeline. KMP owned Trans Mountain until 2018 when they sold it to the Canadian government. Why does this matter? Keystone XL competes to move oil and gas across North America and Steyer funded Bill McKibben' 350.org's protests of KXL.
chriscatoya··on 5G could create global economic boost worth $2T by 2030: Mckinsey
I'm a little skeptical: I see value in 5G for higher fidelity streaming of many kinds, but they may be over-stating the total economic boost here as the areas of growth being claimed strike me as IoT-heavy use cases ("mobility, healthcare, manufacturing, and retail"), but embedded hardware already biases towards using BTLE or WiFi over 4G whenever possible to extend battery life and minimize maintenance. Sensors don't need 4k streaming ;) Despite IoT being off the table, I definitely do believe there are very valuable 5G use cases across those industries mentioned.

I also think the 10 year time horizon as ambitious because 5G requires installing more base stations to cover the same network area as 4G and I can see cities (like SF) fighting the installation of more antennae. The ability to overturn NIMBY persuasion will lag the real adoption of the technology, which means people need to see a killer 5G app for this to happen.

chriscatoya··on Seattle Tech Employees Earn 56% More Than NYC Finance Workers
This isn't going to lend much insight without a distribution by job title/seniority and compositions of the total comp. (As others have already pointed out about RSUs, bonuses, options, etc potentially playing a big part). Further, I think it would be more interesting to see measures of upward mobility given cohorts in tech vs. finance to see which presents more overall opportunity.
chriscatoya··on Udemy raises $50M at a $2B valuation from Japanese publisher Benesse
It makes a lot of sense for Benesse to get into online education, let's see if they can do something that works with Udemy. It might help Udemy as well to get Berlitz co-branding on some content on the platform and start a path that's almost like Masterclass but instead of curated around industry legends, it's brands and institutions.

Also, having visited Benesse House museum this winter, I'd be really excited to see content come out of this that covers more of the art on Naoshima in a highly accessible way.

chriscatoya··on Barclays scraps 'Big Brother' staff tracking system within one week
These sort of systems for desk workers is the equivalent of measuring productivity by lines of code. Completely misses the point of generating value.
chriscatoya··on ‘The Whole System Collapsed’: The Music Industry’s Ongoing Distribution Crisis
Logistics is obviously a solved problem by this point, but I'm guessing the underlying cause here may have to do with a talent drain during the preceding overall contraction of the music industry. I'd figure physical distribution is a lagging industry and will hopefully catch up to the changes we've been seeing elsewhere in music.

An article I read a few years ago (wish I could locate a link) covered how independent record pressing companies are emerging to meet the growing vinyl trend. I think demand for physical music will stick around and therefore the opportunity to get decent logistics in order for their distribution.

chriscatoya··on Jeff Bezos Commits $10B to Address Climate Change
The money is great, of course, but a piece of me wonders every time I see this sort of thing if spending time managing these endeavors directly would be more impactful towards the goal.
chriscatoya··on Ask HN: Tech Managers/Directors/VP's how much of your time is in meetings?
Generally, it’s helpful to follow the 80/20 rule and time-box whatever you’re willing to allocate per week and no more. Do this and only the most valuable things rise up. People have a funny way of filling up the time they’re given, so constrain the allotment.

epc’s advice on limiting and gatekeeping your time availability is a good one. Also, keep in mind that long email back and forths are micro-meetings and avoid that trap whenever possible. A piece of advice I got as I was running five teams was: “Do you ever see executives answer these emails? No, they just have the conversation and they’re done with it.”

Setting time budgets for meetings and gatekeeping your availability means “No” is your friend. Used well results in focus. I find it helpful to consider urgency and importance as the criteria for prioritization.

chriscatoya··on Japan has 33k businesses at least a century old
I generally agree, however I don’t think we should extrapolate trends in Japanese corporate culture from gaming companies. The origin of most of them are gambling syndicates (if you catch my drift) and I don’t think they would reflect the mainstream mores.
chriscatoya··on Why Aren't More Highly Intelligent People Rich?
Nassim Nicholas Taleb would argue this isn’t even relevant: https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-...
chriscatoya··on Japan has 33k businesses at least a century old
Interestingly, this feels related to the low levels of entrepreneurship (Japan ranks 4th lowest in the world)

https://bradchattergoon.com/japan-and-entrepreneurship-e468a...

These things are neither universally good nor bad: I do believe the Japanese conception of duty (and how it diverges from an American sensibility) plays a large role in the fact 33k businesses are over 100 years old. As an American this many businesses is definitely an impressive number, but then again, 100 years ago the US was only 143 years old. We’re ~3 lifetimes (8 generations) away from the signing of the Declaration of Independence. ️

chriscatoya··on Ask HN: I want to join the war for online privacy
Are you interested in the decentralized web space? You could join the New Tech Lab discord which is bridged with a slew of servers for communities and projects in IPFS, DWeb, indieweb

https://discord.gg/mztGdAn

(I helped start this series of bridges across communities)

You may also want to check our Internet Archive’s DWeb Camp and monthly meetup (they have remote guests attend)

chriscatoya··on Ask HN: What should you do or avoid when pivoting a startup?
It’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking a pivot is a failure and therefore bad. What’s important is that by killing an idea, you’re giving yourself a new opportunity rather than chasing after sunk costs.

Fear of failure is very common and it’s a huge inhibitor from ever starting- and this is much worse. You want to set the culture that embraces failure for what it is: a time to assess, take stock, and move forward with a better understanding and course of action. You want to encourage faster recognition of mistakes and removing any shame or stigma will make it easier. This pivot is actually a good time to treat the team to a nice meal and celebrate the progress. You’ve learned and grown together over the course of that journey and enough to know there’s something better. This also means that when you talk about this pivot in the future to potential customers and investors, you have nothing to apologize for if you all did your best. Focus on how these experiences make you an even better fit to solve the problems you’re focusing on now.

chriscatoya··on Using neural networks to upscale a famous 1896 video to 4k quality
I think it's great we're developing this capability, but I prefer the original-- we're seeing the film as it was originally seen then. The captured scene isn't made better by higher fidelity, it's the opposite for me.

As with most advancements in technology and art, we'll see a proliferation of people using the new technique with mixed results at first. It's the shiny new toy. Then over time, people will figure out how to use it and apply it with intent.

The upscaling projects we've seen in gaming have generally produced spectacular results, probably because the intent in gaming graphics has always been for the sort of pixel density we're finally able to start achieving. Remember the huge disparity between the box art and the game? lol.

Gaming aside, I don't think we've left the toy phase just yet.

chriscatoya··on Fed looking into central bank digital coins
When the day comes to pass, we will definitely need to have 2 things:

1) a way to keep debt securitization under control. The rate we saw institutions repackage loans and "insure" them with paper was astronomical and would be dwarfed by equivalents on-chain. Contagion-squared.

2) less friction in a fiat-token on/off ramp means financial institutions are going to need to have a real strategy on blockchain projects. There will be less separation between tokens and traditional markets. Trading patterns of crypto moonboys could potentially spill over to non-crypto markets.