It's almost like they wanted the trip to fail to write this article.
748 karma · joined October 27, 2010
It's almost like they wanted the trip to fail to write this article.
Warren Buffet, a very famous investor you may have heard of, even mentions that he knows plenty of small individual investors who follow many tenets of the philosophy of value investing and they have consistently beat the market.
I, personally, have been individually investing, following the principals of value investing, knowing the companies I invest in, and asset allocation, diversification across industries, and I have slaughtered the market for over 20 years.
All the points he raised in the article are valid, but they read like pop culture one liners. If you are serious about investing I recommend reading Ben Graham's Intelligent Investor and Security Analysis, and follow along with Buffet's letter to shareholders.
Understanding the stock market takes time, and you won't find the answers in a 1000 word blog post.
Let's not forget history here. Musk had a very hard time releasing the Roadster, and it was one of the most painfully delayed automotive launches in history. They were close to running out of money numerous times in the launch, and needed key loans and cash at key times (including a huge cash infusion from Musk himself) otherwise they would have failed. At least some of that based on the public information at the time can be attributed to Musk's inexperience in the car world.
They made it, but it wasn't without a lot of luck. I worry about decisions like this because if there's one thing Tesla really needs to execute on, it's getting new car models out the door in a very timely fashion.
Another example - Nardelli was also a brilliant leader at Home Depot, but he couldn't do enough to save Chrysler.
The car industry is a very different beast then building wheel chairs and segways. Personally I would prefer someone in the new car development driver's seat with a bit more experience. Putting someone without that experience is such a leadership role seems like a reckless move by Tesla.
This is all just my opinion. I'd be happy to discuss further and share opinions.
Equating his segway experience to all of transportation seems a stretch.
According to his linked in profile he was a development engineer at Ford for 6 years and hasn't worked in the car industry for 20 years. Certainly he does not seem to possess any executive experience in the car industry or related to car development.
As a TSLA investor, it makes more sense to me to have someone in that role who actually has experience getting cars to market (ie. someone like Bob Lutz).
Can anyone comment on that or shed some light? As a potential investor, those factors make me shy away from these investments as it makes the stock more volatile to changes and puts the fate of the stock in a few large holders hands.
From the outside looking in I'd rather fill that role with someone with car industry experience bringing actual cars to market, because battery life and industrial design are somewhat fungible, but if Tesla is late on bringing car models to market that has a serious effect on their timelines.
Tesla also offered a $12000 replacement plan for the Tesla Roadsters, so you could get a fresh set of batteries if there was a failure.
You're turning a bad experience with a single manager into a personal vendetta against the company as a whole. I have friends who work there who work normal hours (and have for years) and they even said they feel like they are more respected employees as engineers then the business owners.
Further, I would say the people who want to judge a character by a few anecdotes are being lazy, small minded, and short sighted. Jobs, Gates, and Mayer are all different people with their own styles. I'm not sure if Mayer's style will be what Yahoo needs, but I wish her the best of luck.
Also besides ignoring game sales, it also ignores the fact that Wii sold the most during the early part of it's release. This year Xbox 360 and PS3 are on pace to massively outsell Wii and have been doing so for a while. This is the part in the cycle where hardware sales are most profitable, so who really has the last laugh?
Besides, with the PS3 it was mission accomplished for Sony as they used it as a large bargaining chip to win the blu-ray format war.
Looking at 10 year stock trends, you can see the real story. Nintendo had a massive stock surge after the release of the Wii, but now they have fallen to pre-Wii levels. Sony has been steady throughout.
I can certainly understand why the hype machine is, at least in the short term, valuable to both Sequoia and YC. It helps raise the profile of YC and causes valuations to rise for all involved companies. Both Sequoia and YC are in the business of making money after all.
But when you have a situation of "frenzied investors" and these "exclusive limited events" designed somewhat to cause a situation of artificial scarcity, the waters get a bit muddy regarding the motivation of connecting companies with investors. It's the difference between having genuinely valuable partnerships, and those quick liquidity events designed to make a quick buck.
The original mission of YC involved developing companies that build things that people want. I hope the Sequoia influence doesn't change that.
I just wonder whether contributing to an atmosphere of "frenzied investors" like the original article alludes to is helping or ultimately could wind up hurting in the long term.
I hope Sequoia is not being a negative influence to YC by dis-proportionally "banging the drums" and ultimately being a distraction to the goal of building and developing lasting and meaningful companies and businesses.
My opinion of Google has turned from positive to negative in the last 5 years, and it has nothing to do with how big or successful they are.
You can always take a trip out to best buy/target/etc. to play with it.
I can think of 2 off the top of my head:
- You used to be able to easily access a page of latest release DVDs. They killed this page because "too many people were using it" - and they had a pretty audacious blog post assuring that now it is a better customer experience claiming "it caused contention to ship" - although I never had a problem and sorely missed the feature when it was gone
- You used to be able to see the top 50 streaming movies. It almost always had the top new hollywood blockbusters which I really wanted to see. This feature vanished one day with no explanation that I could find.
The new site redesign is also a good example, making it harder and harder to find the movies you actually want to watch.
For these reasons alone I was a relatively happy customer but I would never have invested in them as a company due to their lack of customer focus. This latest price fiasco was the nail in the coffin. I cancelled my membership.
For the price of the streaming plan, I will just watch one or two movies a month on Amazon Instant Video with a much bigger selection and much stronger customer focus. All the nice features which Netflix killed for no reason are featured prominently on the Amazon web page for starters.
Either way, all the articles, from TechCrunch and on Hacker News, have been useful to me in understanding both the issue, the reaction in the press, the sentiment on hacker news and among tech circles, and beyond. This one in particular does add some new information which I found useful.
I will keep upvoting stories I find interesting about the whole ordeal and I encourage others not to be deterred by the extreme comments in either way.
Your data in Google could disappear in an instant, and you may never know why. That is just scary to me. Advertising, email, - everything - with no one to call and no recourse to get it back.
I will be actively trying to move all my services off of Google starting today.
I think your comment is a bit of hyperbole, the success of a company like Apple is not unprecedented in history. Apple could continue doing "big things" over the next decade, I just seriously doubt their ability to continue their growth and justify their market cap over the next 5-10 years. That's all. Possible, yes, in my opinion extremely, extremely unlikely.
And also like clockwork, I had a comment explaining why I thought they would fail, and have downvotes.
Right now Apple is doing great. I would still question the sustainability of this business as an investor. What's next after ipad?
Long term, 5 years say, ipad/iphone margins will evaporate and Apple will need a series of "big things" to fill in the gaps to even have a flat growth curve to justify their market cap - that's my prediction.
Also, architecturally there's no reason to do a massive re-write of any software all at once, and it usually ends in tears. They can do it piece by piece and they should be making those investments now if they hope to last another half decade.
At the end of the day, Google gets most of it's money from advertising, Microsoft from Office/Windows lock-in, Amazon from e-commerce, etc.
The one company that really turned it's self on it's own head was Apple, but I don't see any of the above companies (needing to) do anything so radical any time soon.
Congrats to Bob Parsons, GoDaddy is pretty much the poster boy for bootstrapping (although Bob was already quite wealthy from a previous business). Apparently many people don't agree with how he ran the business and you are free to have your opinion, but I think most of the controversy at the end of the day was isolated to a few legally pressured decisions (regarding shutting down web sites, such as rate a cop) and a few bad apple executives (buying/selling domains at their own auctions). On the whole, I've been a happy Go Daddy customer for 10 years now and haven't had a single issue.
There are plenty of risks of course, not the least of which is Facebook turning off the lights, but that is something that seems like it could be baked into the IPO price for a 1 billion dollar company with these financials.
Not saying I will invest in few months after the IPO, generally it takes time for investor hype to cool down and heat back up again (see LinkedIn, the only people who made any money so far were the investment banks) - but it might be a good post-IPO lull buy.
If anything at this point Hulu will be a talent acquisition.
http://www.bayareacensus.ca.gov/bayarea.htm
Equating 86K a year to penniless is a statement very very far removed from reality.