byzantinegene

China is still quite far from monopolizing hardware production

most of the bubble right now is fueled from circular financing of Anthropic and OpenAI

100b sounds implausible if you consider that anthropic's revenue is only expected to reach 100b this year, 100m is more likely.

where are the cheaper chinese models?

source? most benchmarks show "smart" routing producing near-identical accuracy and 50-75% cheaper costs.

i think plenty of people don't want to be forced to using just Claude and ChatGPT

they have no reason to do that to harm their reputation if their goal is profit, in which in this case it is.

this would never work if the core business model requires your flagship product to be best-in-class.

such a business plan has not yet created economic value, being able to roll out features at rocket speed is not a huge determinant of a startup's success.

sam and dario would be extremely happy

why would you even hire 2 AI friendly people when you could just prompt it yourself? we wouldn't even need you anymore

we are already at the point where AI proponents are planning to have the review cycle be replaced by llms

i doubt the users really care as long as they get the job done, AI in 90% of use cases is just a race to the bottom, nobody cares as long as it's cheap and gets the job done.

fraud that cannot be reliably be prevented, which makes the business model in-question fall into 'questionable' category.

good, then the money could be potentially put to better use

The official reasoning they use is sanctioning 'intellectual theft' due to distillation.

VCs have been horseshit for some time and throwing money at horseshit startups to increase their AUM, their incentive structures are fundamentally misaligned with their clients.

Why would model progress slowing be necessarily bad for China?

if this is true, the frontier labs are not able to justify their trillion dollar valuations, they are barely making anything on subsidized plans.

I believe they will last until they IPO, and not long after that. $200/mo plans are not good for their P&L when their users using $10000 worth api credits. That's -98% margin loss per user.

until they put their money where their mouth is

claude code is free to use, you can use claude code with any non-anthropic model, so harness stickiness doesn't benefit the AI labs at all.

the reselling of fixed price plans by resellers are causing american labs to lose alot of money and that's why they're trying really hard to stamp it down.

it's not like the protests are working anyway

does demolishing homes to build data centers count?

guess that's what AI trained itself on

or i can just not do it? this absolute garbage of a music video is not worth a single cent, let alone a $100.

more features doesn't mean anything if they don't translate into economic value, refactoring prs and dependency updates are easily automated now and it saves alot of productivity, but if you compare the costs and economic value gained it might not actually justify enterprise token spending.

when they IPO, their financials will be under scrutiny, and exponential revenue growth would be required to justify their trillion dollar valuation

that's why i mostly use it for asynchronous work, the inefficiency is something i can bear with because the subscription costs are dirt cheap. if it's token-based, it wouldn't make financial sense.