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byrneseyeview

11,227 karma · joined February 20, 2007

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byrneseyeview··on An open letter to Peter Thiel
This is just silly. I started reading this article with a couple biases in mind: I can't ever remember reading anything by Wadhwa and thinking anything other than "That is the conventional wisdom, yes," and Thiel is correct that college is a bubble (http://www.byrnehobart.com/blog/higher-education-the-next-bi...)

But Wadhwa's advice is just ludicrous. If it's 2005, and you claim that housing is a bubble, the proper response isn't "Go put your money where your mouth is: start manufacturing mobile homes, or tents, or something." It's a non-sequitur: people are overpaying for education because they treat it as an asset: if you double the sticker price, buyers react by assuming that they're buying twice as much of it.

The right responses to a bubble: short it, or at least structure your life so you're not dependent on it. In real estate, that means renting rather than buying; in higher ed, that means dropping out and investing your efforts into tasks that better measure your underlying talents, and don't cost tens of thousands of dollars.

It's just a weird defense of the status quo: nowhere does Wadhwa ask questions like: have we overestimated how many people should go to college? Are we even willing to tell people that they'd be happier (and society would be better off) if they became electricians or plumbers? It seems like Thiel's framework is flexible enough to imagine a country where 50% of the population earns a masters, or where only 5% pursue a BA. Whereas Wadhwa's framework is robust enough to imagine a swing of half a standard deviation away from whatever the status quo is.

Full disclosure: it's a little early to tell, but I'm fairly successful; I dropped out of college my freshman year.

byrneseyeview··on Akamai close to being acquired by Google
The tables have turned: this Reuters story is just rehashing Business Insider, which broke the story earlier:

http://www.businessinsider.com/google-move-2011-10

BI's version actually has more background and analysis, in addition to being the source.

byrneseyeview··on My apology and why the tech world is awesome
This is a very limited apology. He was in the news for pretending to be a journalist while researching a startup, sure, but that was merely weird (you might even call it "scrappy," like some of the stories you hear about other startups doing slightly dishonest stuff early on). But that story had plenty of other examples of Guo doing really weird stuff, like getting free air travel and product samples by claiming he was going to write about companies. He vaguely alludes to that in the blog post, but it's a weird omission not to address that. A simple "These stories are all wrong" or even "I was broke and really intended to write about those guys, but it was still the wrong decision" would be fine.

http://www.betabeat.com/2011/09/27/jerry-guo-newsweek-groupe...

byrneseyeview··on Engaging Steve Jobs story/interview from 2005 [long]
In a good interview, the interviewer cleans it up by dropping the awkward bits: take a one hour conversation, remove the "Ahhs," "Ummms," the "Unfortunately I can't discuss that"s, and the stuff parroted from press releases. You're left with a whole lot less material, but it's usually pretty good.

You can do the opposite, too.

byrneseyeview··on Trader: I dream of another recession (and Goldman Sachs rules the world)
People entering the workforce forty years ago could reasonably guess when they'd retire and what they'd be doing at the time. I know very few people who think they'll have the same job five years from now. It seems very likely that the argument that the economy is getting more stable is false.

Here's why: underlying predictability probably increases volatily. People love to lever up when they're certain; "Private Equity" as an asset class refers to both VC deals and leveraged buyouts because in both cases, they fine-tune their leverage to get the same (high) volatility. Increased certainty makes bankers more willing to lend, and speculative buyers are always willing to borrow.

In my experience, speculative borrowers and the marginal banker overestimate decreases in volatility. Thus, a more superficially predictable economy will lever up fast enough to more than counteract that (sort of like the theory that airbags increase traffic fatalities because drivers overestimate how safe they are and thus take extra risks).

For economic volatility to actually dampen, you'd need economists to come up with better predictions that sound really stupid, so bankers and speculators would disregard them.

byrneseyeview··on Don't try this at home. How credit card arbitrage funded my first company.
The point about gold is not accurate. Arbitrage means going long and short equivalent amounts of equivalent assets. So it's arbitrage if you borrow at 0%, and invest in a CD at, say, 1%. It's not arbitrage if you borrow on your card and invest in a non-dollar asset like gold, unless your credit card liabilities are also denominated in gold.
byrneseyeview··on Facebook Timeline
It's lifepath.me with features! Not necessarily an improvement.
byrneseyeview··on Yahoo employees: Get out now before the vultures descend
This article is based on a false premise. The effect of LBOs on job creation is ambiguous:

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1034178

Silver Lake, in particular, is more of a growth equity firm that happens to use debt.

(I work at, but by no means speak for, Yahoo.

byrneseyeview··on Ask PG: What has changed since you wrote Hackers and Painters in 2004?
I just reread a bunch of the essays. There is very little that needs updating (and later essays address this).

I get the sense that PG wrote the essays and that book so they could be read many years in the future. Call it a decade for the timely ones, and much more than that for the rest. A few of the updates would be along the lines of "This needs to change from the future tense." For example, this brief review of the iPhone from 2001:

With Web-based software, most users won't have to think about anything except the applications they use. All the messy, changing stuff will be sitting on a server somewhere, maintained by the kind of people who are good at that kind of thing. And so you won't ordinarily need a computer, per se, to use software. All you'll need will be something with a keyboard, a screen, and a Web browser. Maybe it will have wireless Internet access. Maybe it will also be your cell phone. Whatever it is, it will be consumer electronics: something that costs about $200, and that people choose mostly based on how the case looks. You'll pay more for Internet services than you do for the hardware, just as you do now with telephones.

byrneseyeview··on Groupon Sales Team Files Class-Action Suit
suddenly unpopular with both users and investors...

The first rule of bad journalism is to confuse the first and second derivatives. Groupon is enormously popular with users and investors--it's just not the most popular it's ever been. Yipit's fairly recent data indicate that while the daily deal market contracted slightly over the summer, but Groupon shrank more slowly than LivingSocial ( http://techcrunch.com/2011/08/25/yipits-daily-deal-report-gr... ).

In "Fooled by Randomness," Taleb points out that the more frequently you measure results, the more random they are. Second-by-second, Warren Buffett is losing money just about half the time.

Groupon obviously has problems, and LivingSocial is executing amazingly well, but it should be laughable to call them "unpopular" rather than "less massively popular than at their peak a couple months ago," in the same way that you wouldn't call someone "poor" because they moved down a spot in the Forbes 400.

byrneseyeview··on Meet Amazon.com’s first employee: Shel Kaphan
The first time I'd heard of him was when Paul Graham called him a de facto cofounder:

http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1045781

byrneseyeview··on Groupon's PR Boss Suddenly Quit After Just Two Months On The Job - Here's Why
Companies pay top dollar for CFOs who can, among other things, engage in such sleazy behavior. Working capital management is critical to a company that wants to grow fast--it's conceivable that Amazon could have gone under if they hadn't operated this way, too.

Merchants agree to Groupon's terms; there is nothing sleazy about striking a deal and holding up your end of it.

byrneseyeview··on The Patent Pledge
One way to frame that is "This is abusable. All you risk is the NYT writing an article trashing your behavior." The 500-shareholder rule is fairly obscure among laypeople, and pretty much only popular among people who litigate the cases it creates. So someone patent-trolling might suffer even more.
byrneseyeview··on After A Hot Start, Justin.tv Spins Off Socialcam, Its ‘Instagram for Video’
Well, they own a stake through Justin.tv. If Justin.tv makes a good deal, it will naturally be a good deal for investors.

An example might clarify it. Let's say Justin.tv thinks SocialCam is worth $1 million. So, those 100 shares are worth $10,000 each. In the scenario above, SocialCam might:

- Sell 50 shares to an outside investor, for $500K. (So there are now 150 shares. But the company is worth $500K more, or $1.5 million. $1.5 million / 150 shares = $10K per share, the original price).

- Grant options with a $10K strike price. This would dilute existing investors, and thus slightly reduce the value of their stake. But a) this is standard for many companies--they issue shares to managers, and figure that the equity incentive pays for itself through higher performance (see http://paulgraham.com/equity.html ), or b) SocialCam's founding team might exchange their Justin.tv shares/options for SocialCam shares/options. As long as investors agree on the value for both companies, that's a fair deal.

I hope that explains it. This kind of thing is usually done with board approval, after discussion with the board, so it's unlikely that anyone did anything underhanded.

byrneseyeview··on After A Hot Start, Justin.tv Spins Off Socialcam, Its ‘Instagram for Video’
Justin.tv owns some of it. What they're probably doing is having Socialcam issue some stock to investors, and to grant lots options to the founding team. Imagine that SocialCam has 100 shares now. They might have the company sell 50 shares to outside investors for funding (so Justin.tv owns ~67%, but that is 67% post-money, and the total value of the stake will be the same). Then the company could allocate 50 shares to an option pool for their founders. That dilutes Justin.tv's stake down to 50%. Nobody has to give anything up--the investors are putting in money, and the options are a form of employee compensation.
byrneseyeview··on Rational Home Buying
Since the tax-deductible nature of mortgages also applies to your landlord, that factor nets to zero. Inflation also nets out to zero, since both the borrower and the lender (and the landlord and the renter) are using the same currency. Unless you argue that home buyers are systematically better at accounting for inflation than bankers, of course.

The way I would look at it is that I buy housing the way I buy groceries, clothes, and pretty much everything else: I buy it when I need it. I mean, sure, if I bought an orchard I could get apples for "Free" after I'd paid the mortgage, but that's just bad accounting.

The problem with buying a house is that it's a massive bet on your local labor market. Your job (your biggest asset, in terms of net present value), is also a bet on the same market. You're levering up massively in order to bet on one of the biggest un-controllable risks you face, and you're paying 7% transaction costs on the purchase and the sale in order to do so.

A cheaper way to make this bet is to borrow several times your annual income, and bet on your being laid off (i.e. you make money if you don't get fired, and you do make money if you do get fired). That would be a terrible decision.

byrneseyeview··on The Fall of Groupon: Is the Daily-Deals Site Running Out of Cash?
I wrote a little about this:

Another way to respond to this critique: Groupon could have theoretically solved this problem by adopting faster payment plans for merchants. That would make theirs a worse business with lower cash flow, but it would help their PR (and perhaps their valuation). It’s counterintuitive that Groupon could make their business worse but make their valuation better—it depends on whether their share price is, at the margin, determined by the skeptics or the believers.

( http://www.digital-dd.com/hp-immaterial-usability-users/ )

byrneseyeview··on Use Jonathan's card to buy yourself an iPad
Donating money to starving children in Africa well-meaning, but cruel. Life in Africa sucks, and making people live there longer is not a good deed. The West has invested incredible sums of money into Africa, and the result is corruption, violence, and stagnation. They are begging us to stop:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,363663,00...

I believe that about as strongly as Sam believes that donating to Africa will help (this time is different!). Buuut I wouldn't feel justified in stealing from a charity in order to act on that belief.

byrneseyeview··on Can we believe our eyes? Misleading people with Unicode.
This was how some folks pretended that Google had erased all mentions of "Oracle":

http://giorgiosironi.blogspot.com/2010/08/google-never-remov...

I used this to prank some people on the in-house SEO team at my last job. I'd ask them if they had done anything that might be considered black-hat. Then I sent him a link to a "site:" query on Google indicating that our site had been removed from the index.

e.g. http://www.google.com/search?sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8...

byrneseyeview··on Twitter acquires Bagcheck
At what point did you stop applying that argument to sites that require an email address to sign up?
byrneseyeview··on Groupon is the next Madoff, except big iBanks helped it rob investors
I tried to find where Groupon was "hiding $180 million of actual online marketing spend," but it was really tough. Unfortunately, Groupon's financial statements include that allegedly hidden number.

The author of this piece is not especially familiar with the daily deal market. OpenTable has consistently said that they don't want to be in the daily deal business, for example; they absolutely don't want to be a Groupon competitor. The author is also unfamiliar with developments in capital markets in the last ten years: it's gotten harder to IPO, but there's a lot more capital available for growth-stage companies. So it would be surprising and unprecedented if investor cash-outs didn't shift to the pre-IPO stage.

Finally, this is old news. This kind of article and analysis showed up when Groupon first filed their S-1 with GAAP financial statements (i.e. statements that would allow you to completely ignore CSOI). Calling it the next Madoff is a boring rhetorical trick. Groupon is not a great business, and I would rather be short than long at the projected IPO price. But it's also a real business that could be structured to earn a decent return for investors. Everyone can see that Groupon adds some value, and the real question for investors is whether they're right about the market size and the economics of the business.

Calling Groupon a ponzi scheme is amateurish.

byrneseyeview··on That truck driver you flipped off? Let me tell you his story.
Source?

The Economist claims that the US has the best freight rail infrastructure in the world:

http://www.economist.com/node/16636101

The "fundamental problem" is probably that America is a really big country, and there are lots of livable places in the US that are far from other population centers.

byrneseyeview··on The Consumer Web is Deflationary
It's a small fraction of the real economy, but a large and growing fraction of waking hours. It's hard to measure the consumer surplus created by high-quality entertainment, but it's clearly enormous if people are willing to devote multiple hours per day to TV (or, if they're in the demographic you mentioned, games and the Internet).

If that activity is <.25% of GDP and ~5% of waking hours, it might imply that our measurements are out of whack, not that it's insignificant.

Plus! The rise of online dating might cut into the cosmetics market, by reducing the necessary baseline of attractiveness. If people meet their mates when they're standing in line at the grocery store, looking good in the grocery store has a direct, positive impact on lifetime happiness. If people meet their mates on OKCupid, it's okay not to care too much about personal appearance at other times.

byrneseyeview··on The Consumer Web is Deflationary
That's a really good question. I have no idea what the ad revenue per hour of TV watched would look like, but Quora might know:

http://www.quora.com/What-are-some-typical-ad-revenues-per-p...

(Edit: I came up with a very rough estimate of $.20 of ad revenue per person-hour of TV time. I have no idea how accurate that might be.)

byrneseyeview··on Groupon's accounting practices under SEC scrutiny
If everybody is so familiar with GAAP, the SEC's case is much weaker. They're arguing that investors will be too unsophisticated to differentiate between this new, weird accounting measure and the usual standards.
byrneseyeview··on Groupon's accounting practices under SEC scrutiny
Ironically, GAAP numbers are easier to game than what Groupon is reporting. For example, if Groupon were to slash their marketing budget in order to meet their earnings estimates, you'd see better net income but a minimal change in CSOI.

It's just strange for this to be so controversial.

byrneseyeview··on Google Bans Adwords use for Facebook
Thanks! Are you in the US?
byrneseyeview··on Google Bans Adwords use for Facebook
http://www.google.com/search?sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8...

"Facebook Blog" is still showing me AdWords ads for Facebook Advertising. (facebook.com/ads/)

byrneseyeview··on Google Bans Adwords use for Facebook
Screenshot? I see FB as the top organic result, but not as an advertiser.
byrneseyeview··on Google Bans Adwords use for Facebook
I buy lots of data sets on this stuff. My company analyzes SEO and SEM campaigns to help investors understand what they're getting into.
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