Don't try this at home. How credit card arbitrage funded my first company.
humbledmba.com
humbledmba.com
Even though he wasn't accepting money from his parents, he was implicitly using their financial security to shoulder this risk. If everything had really gone to hell, they would have helped him back on his feet. (Much like some banks could take huge risks knowing the government would probably bail them out, even if there wasn't an explicit agreement or exchange of money beforehand.) Other people, like maybe his friend, don't have such a financial safety net and so can't take on those kinds of risks.
Actually, in the UK, if they can prove it, it's illegal. Be surprised if that wasn't the same in the West.
In Jason's case, remember, shit did hit the fan and he couldn't pay his debt. Instead of running to his parents (or bankruptcy, for that matter) he scrounged for some consulting gigs and short-time jobs to pay it back.
Frankly, that part of the story is among the most inspiring, since in the middle of that, we started FlightCaster.
You could also start a business with the cash, but that's a bit higher-risk...
It's a lesson in what not to do, as the author acknowledges. Though he seems sanguine enough and has got back up on his feet.
Then again, I think there are easier ways to learn it's not a good idea to rack up five figures of credit card debt on top of existing debt and no savings... but whatevs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage
While the 4th credit card company he applies to has imperfect information about what his credit is (at that point) actually worth, it seems like all the deals are independent.
Though inaccurate, the title was much catchier than:
"How credit cards funded my first company"In my case, it was playing the us mint. They sell 250 $1 coins for 250 with free shipping. Fidelity Amex card gives 2% cash back. So I would order tens of thousands of coins and use the coins to pay the credit card build. 1K roundtrip = $20, and it was pretty scalable. Nowadays there is a limit
This wasn't a particularly uncommon scheme in the mid-2000's with easy credit and high savings rates. A rough calculation shows that with a zero-interest card (you could generally negotiate 0% cash-advance checks as well) and a 5% savings account, you could make in the ballpark of $450 over the course of a year per 10k borrowed. If you had good credit and could quickly get access to 100k, you'd be making a few thousand for a not much more than a days work + some short-term damage to your credit score, though at that time, credit scores didn't really mean all that much.
That's arbitrage to me.
Like, you took on a risk, and you got compensated for the risk.
You essentially issued insurance. Perhaps you were lucky that you didn't have to pay out. But that doesn't mean you found an arbitrage.
1. Get a bank to loan you at 0 percent.
2. Buy something liquid.
3. Sell said something.
4. Loan the money to another bank at >0 percent. (ie, buy a CD.)
...it's still stupid, because if they caught on to your shenanigans, that zero would turn into 29.95% overnight and you'd lose a pile of money trying to unwind the mess. The unavoidable problem is step #2. Good luck buying anything except for treasury bills that don't immediately drop 5 percent or more in value the minute you purchase it.
The difference is that when my startup failed, I had money in the bank, no debt, and no particular time limit for finding another source of income. And that gave me options, and options gave me negotiating power. I was able to turn down offers that I felt would be career dead-ends or wouldn't teach me much, and would've even been able to found another startup immediately if the right opportunity hadn't come up. Instead of working 6 months on boring consulting jobs, I was able to spend that 6 months taking a job that taught me things (which has turned into 2.5 years, because the job is still teaching me things).
Tour operators publish their prices for the upcoming year's trips. They publish them usually in one currency, sometimes in two, rarely in three. They're beholden to these prices because they publish brochures and distribute them to places like Flight Centre.
So what you do is become a wholesaler of a bunch of tour operators' trips (this is easy to aggregate, many have XML feeds that publish their inventory, including pricing & availability). Then you use real-time exchange rates to figure out which currency it's best to sell in to a customer and then buy the product from the operator using another currency. For example, say the US & CAD dollars are at par when prices are published. If the US drops a lot compared to the CAD, you sell the trip to your customer in CAD but purchase the trip from the operator in US.
The beauty is that operators will pay you a commission (usually 20-25%) on top of whatever you gain from the currency arbitrage. There's some complexity in becoming a legal wholesaler and being able to accept multiple currencies etc.
At the very least it makes for some interesting math.
The travel agency (in Australia) weren't able to do that for me, however - so it seems their agreement was in a single currency as well. I'm not sure how hard I could have pushed it, because the dates ended up not quite working anyway.
A lot of 'regular' businesses fall into the trap of building a lot of short-term debt that isn't really obvious - owing their suppliers, owing their employees, and owing the tax man. When a small hiccup hurts their cash flow, the whole stack of cards comes crumbling down.
Or so I've been told.... :)
There are a few ways to get around that. You are probably breaking money laundering laws if you do, though - so, disclaimer.
Find a friend or family member who has a small store and merchant account, or setup your own merchant account in a company name, or put up an item on ebay with a buy it now. Create one or a number of fake products with realistic looking prices (some merchant terminals let you enter an arbitrary price).
Buy it with your new card and kick back the cash, minus the transaction fee.
You can then just keep bumping the balance to a new card when the introductory period is up - just pay the minimum payments (which are usually very low). Juggling to new cards with introductory rates is a lot better than applying for many cards at once. It just looks like you got sick of your last bank for poor service etc.
What he went for is the advanced version where you can get free money if you stack the cards correctly. It is difficult to do, but companies and financial investors do it pretty often.
What's the difference between the two situations? In one, he spent however amount of time earning the $20k before he put it into the startup, in the other he spends however amount of time working off the credit card debt after the startup fails.
The real difference between these two is the interest rate on the credit cards, and that's about it. In both cases he has to work to earn the money he put into his startup, though it might be more painful to do it after failure than before.
[I think its amusing that this comment has been down voted. I wasn't disagreeing with the person I'm responding to, didn't say anything offensive, and offered a different way of looking at things that seemed to be missing.]
I did something similar with an Amex card, and used it to bootstrap the development I couldn't perform myself. As long as you manage the risk and plan accordingly, it's not as bad of a play as it's made out to be.
Also, the author never said anything about bankruptcy, and he seems a man of his word. I didn't get the impression he was going to burn through the cash and then file bankruptcy if it didn't work. In fact, he didn't, and it didn't.
When you have a dream, and you believe in it, you do everything you can to make it work.
Yeah, you can just get one of those "Learn how to Program in 30 Days!" books, and it's just as good as hiring someone who does it professionally.
This whole post reads like a big "Don't Do What Donny Don't Does" book.
Using one hole to plug another never was a really good idea.
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I'm an amateur web dev and experimental iOS dev, but in the time it would take me to get good enough to build my ideas from scratch, I could've payed someone to build 5 of them.
The only question I am left with is how much did you end up settling for or how long did it take to eventually pay it all off?
Running from the credit card companies ruined his credit, of course, but I wonder if the author of the article would have gotten a better rate of return if he had just hid from the credit card companies, waiting for them to get desperate enough to settle.
I would expect that taking legal employment under your own name makes you relatively findable. Worse, recruiting investors for a startup is likely to be much more difficult if they perform due diligence on you and discover that you have a history of running away from creditors.
Of course, even worse than that is that the author planned his moves carefully in advance. While running off when you owe too much money isn't the best move, planning to run away from your debts might well be prosecuted as fraud.
It seems to me that the simplest way to solve this problem is to keep a very close eye on your standard of living. Personally, I buy most of my food from the dollar store and think of my summer internship savings as a "bankroll" that I should gamble with carefully.
The author was just taking the 0% rates and using them to fund his company which didn't work out. There was never a guaranteed upside to this which is what you would expect with arbitrage.
That's the hidden gem. Only do this if you enjoy programming, though, because it's hard work, especially in the beginning. Expect a year or two to get fluent, not a month or two.
But once you know how to program, you don't have to spend time finding scarce developer talent, you don't have to spend time communicating requirements et cetera, and most of all you don't have to pay them $X.
2. This isn't even correct. It claims that you can get your credit score for free, which is incorrect. When I notice one error, I suspect there are other errors.
The key to dealing with credit cards is understanding the terms -- it's all written down in a little document that nobody reads. In particular, you need to understand precisely how each lender defines "default". "Default" == no more 0%.
Also, this guy had the business networking chops required to jump into consulting gigs immediately upon declaring failure. The exit strategy is essential.
I did something similar to this with a house that I needed to get out of quickly. I borrowed $52,000 over several cards and ended up using $40k. The $12k was used as a pool to make the automatic payments from. End result? The value of the home increased by $80k.
Now, this kind of risk won't work as well in this economy. Credit cards have severely curtailed their introductory rates. However, in 2002-2007 I knew people who augmented their income multiple times by this same arbitage and putting the money in low risk investment vehicles. Once the intro rates were finished, they would pay back 100% and close the card, moving on to the next one.
The credit card reform act will make this more difficult in the future.
Poor choices should not be glorified in the name of entrepreneurial risk.
I did something similar about 5 years ago but with "investing" the money in HYIPs (high yield investment programs). I was woefully ignorant of how many of these are scams (99.999%) but managed to make a decent return and not lose my shirt.
I wouldn't recommend doing this to anyway. The risks are extremely high.
The title is also inaccurate linkbait.
I appreciate self-promotion as much as anyone, but I think this isn't the way to go about doing it.
Find the credit cards affiliate program. Sign up to it, and use it. You might get for example $50 commission, for signing up to a 0% credit card, if you use your affiliate link.
Also, if you're more concerned about it and want an easier way, use some reward/cashback program website.
You take out a bunch of credit cards, as he describes. Preferably ones with zero interest for the first year, or 6 months. You extract as much cash from them as you can. You put a chunk of that cash in the bank to make minimum payments from, and then you put that cash into an asset that will return more over the next year than the cards will charge.
[EDIT TO ADD: Want to clear up some confusion. In order to arbitrage interest rates, you have to have whatever you buy return more than what you have to pay for the money. There's one factor that people often forget when thinking about interest rates, and that is inflation. Dollars spent to pay off a loan are worth less than dollars you get at the beginning of the loan. This means, the asset you put your money into, needs to return not only enough to cover the interests & fees on the credit cards over the time period, but the monetary inflation rate over the time period. Thus, something that is an inflation hedge is beneficial. This is why I talk about gold below, and later I talk about CDs and even stocks.]
I'd suggest buying gold, or gold miners, or if you're super sophisticated, options on solid gold mining companies. (each of these has increasing leverage to the price of gold.) But it doesn't have to be gold, it just has to be something that is a "no brainer" way to earn a positive return above the rate of the credit card interest.
This may be difficult, and in fact, it should be difficult, because if it were easy the credit card companies would do it instead of loaning the money to you.
Potentially, you could take the money from the credit card company and put it into a CD at the very same bank. This works only if you really have "no interest for one year". Buy a 9 month CD (or better yet a 10 month CD), and then when it matures, pay off the credit card, and you get the interest from the CD for free.
The thing that makes such arbitrage opportunities so valuable is that, because the asset you're buying returns more than the cost of your money, you can scale it up pretty much infinitely.
But this is where things get problematic if you don't cover your downside. When the Bank of Japan was lending money at nearly zero interest, many banks borrowed in japan, converted the money to other currencies, and then bought treasuries of other countries. This is called the carry trade.
In fact, I wish I could start up a bank right now. I'd love to borrow money from the Federal Reserve, which is loaning it out at almost nothing, and buy the best bonds (along with some protective put options) I could find on the market.
A company wants to borrow for capital expansion, it will pay a reasonable interest rate-- say %6. The Federal Reserve is loaning at something like %1. %5 profit, at the only risk of the bond (so protect it with a CDO.) It must be great to be a bank.
If you have a startup you need to fund, and you can get a CD the interest rates right now are about 1.15%. So, I think this doesn't work for arbitrage, because while you may have "zero percent interest" there are going to be some fees that will overwhelm that meager interest rate.
But, if you could get a CD that paid out %6, and could borrow at %1 (on the "zero interest" plans) then you'd only need $400,000 in credit card debt in order to raise $20,000 for your startup!
Realistically, credit card arbitrage doesn't really work too well. If you get something with a higher rate of return, and you use borrowed money to buy it, then that's really investing on margin and not really something you could call "arbitrage". I'm sure it works for some people doing startups.... but isn't really reproducible on a wide scale.
BY the way, if you want access to some of that federal reserve money at cheap rates, at least some brokers are passing it along to their margin customers. Then you can start looking for a solid high yielding company, borrow %50, effectively doubling your yield... don't forget to buy some put options to cover your long position in case it crashes.
You are talking about using interest free loans from credit cards in order to make a leveraged bet on the price of gold; that is not arbitrage.
If gold decreases in price - and its close to record highs, however you want to intrepret that - you are taking a huge risk.
i.e. I borrow $1k at 0% for one year. I put the money in a 1 year CD paying 1% interest. At the end of the year, I pay back the loan with the CD's principal, and put the $10 interest in my pocket.
Even if inflation were 2% (or 10%, or 100%), I am still making money - no matter how deflated the value of the dollar is, I still have more dollars in my pocket than when I started.
(Inflation hurts lenders of money, not borrowers)
Maybe mentioning gold is "politically incorrect" and so I'm getting down votes and disagreement, when the gist of my comment was talking about different ways you could arbitrage to raise money for a startup.
This is also what makes gold a relevant possibility for this type of arbitrage. Since gold's supply is relatively fixed, as the dollar declines due to inflation, the gold price will appreciate. So, even if there were no increasing interest in gold from investors (e.g.: no appreciation due to increased demand) you'd be arbitraging the delta between the exchange rates of the two currencies. Borrowing in dollars and buying gold.
This could be, as I mentioned, done between any two currencies. Or, in the case of CDs, which I mentioned in my original comment, within the same currency.
But I guess that since I mentioned gold it is Very Important for you lot to say that gold is risky, and that I'm obviously falling to "mention" those things that I, uh, er, mentioned.
> Since gold's supply is relatively fixed, as the dollar declines due to inflation, the gold price will appreciate.
You are assuming that gold is "safe". It's not. If gold dives right when you need to pay back the card, you will start paying massive rates on the card. Not cool. Not even gold bugs suggest gold is a safe "no brainer" 6 month investment - there is a chance it will fall.
Big call - that gold will appreciate. Some people think that since the P/E of gold is effectively infinite, gold should be worth essentially nothing. Now, I'm fairly bullish on gold at the moment, but it's not guaranteed to appreciate. As credit collapses, cold hard cash becomes valuable, as you need it to buy the distressed assets of former paper-millionaires, or to invest in a much less congested market, or buy old tires to repair the soles of your kids shoes, so you actually go into deflation. And the US can sell off gold reserves if it gets in trouble (though there are conspiracy theorists who say this has already happened), and that would hurt gold prices.
If you get $10,000 from zero-interest credit cards, and put it a 6 month term 2% / year deposit, you debt is $10,000 (really $9,000 after massive inflation), while you get back $10,100 (really $9,090). So you made $100 (really $90, with some crazy inflation sucking up your winnings). A free $100 is arbitrage.
And old (and very similar) scheme was "Check kiting" - you cash a check (possibly for a very large amount), then deposit the money in your savings account (or use it as an emergency loan). Before the first check clears, you cash another check, and use it to cover the first one. If you miss a beat, you go to jail.
Instead of arbitraging the interest rates, you could make a leveraged bet on gold, houses (they always go up, because they 'aint makin' any more land, you know, and the population keeps increasing), shares, options, pork bellies, or cans of sardines. But the danger is, that some wacky market dynamic will wipe out your position, leaving you with a credit card debt you can't repay. Maybe you are a great investor, and know how to pick winners (and cover your downside) but great investors don't often need to borrow a few thousand off a credit card.
Meta: Not only did I read your whole initial parent post, I had also not mentioned a single word about "gold". So I am really intrigued by your negative tone and accusation of me jumping on the "anti-gold argument" bandwangon. Btw, I really enjoy reading your HN posts. But that doesn't prevent me from pointing out flaws in your logic. If my original reply sounded like an attack, then I guess I should be more careful in my wordings.
My original reply did account for the transaction fees in "pay no interest loans". I didn't use the same figure you did, but to pretend like I ignored it is wrong. If you had read my post, you would notice that I said that a "safe investment" like a CD would not give you a sufficient return at current CD rates, and so I talked about a hypothetical %6 CD.
Your original reply came as piling on, and since you didn't (and still haven't) recognized that I had addressed the issue you're bringing up, there's no way to distinguish you form the others who are jumping in and telling falsehoods about me based on their own financial ignorance.
I am quite dismayed that nobody has responded on the original point-- using arbitrage to finance your startup-- and instead people are trying to score points by attacking me as if this were reddit.
I'm already pretty hesitant to post to this site due to an expectation that I won't useful discussion in response. This is just convincing me more of it.... so, if you do enjoy reading my HN posts, know that I try my best when posting to avoid stepping on any of the land mines that will result in people attacking me, and I post as if I'm walking on eggshells. I thought that mentioning gold might be tolerated here, but I was wrong.
In that case, you'd be borrowing US dollars and buying, say, Greek Bonds. I picked that example because greek bonds have a high rate of return. They're also debt... you're getting debt in one market and selling it in another.
Greek Bonds obviously have risk. All arbitrage has risks, and those risks can be huge. That the risk is huge doesn't make it any less arbitrage.
FWIW, I don't think gold is at a particularly high price. I think the dollar and other currencies, which have been long over valued, are a little less overvalued than they were. I don't price gold in dollars, I price dollars in gold.
Say you borrow $100k at 0% for 1 year. You then buy (at $1734/oz) ~57oz of gold. Next year, you plan to sell it and pay off your $100k.
But you've taken a risk. If gold is only $1500/oz next year, you're going to lose ~$13k. Of course, if its $2000/oz, you're going to make a nice profit. You're speculating on the gold market. You could build a similar position with gold futures, for example.
Arbitrage would be if you could take that $100k, and immediate buy gold in USD, sell it in EUR, and then buy USD with those EUR and wind up with >$100k. Then you're not taking any risk, because you can set up all those transactions practically at the same time (and the markets are liquid enough you know the prices you'll be able to buy/sell at).
If you're buying gold in SF for $100 and selling it in NYC for $101, you carry the risk that the price will move while you're executing the trade.
If you're doing the yen carry trade (borrowing yen, and lending dollars), you carry the currency risk.
If you're taking 0% credit card loans and buying CDs, you carry the default risk on the CDs (mitigated, of course, by the FDIC).
That said, I agree with your general point - buying gold with a 0% loan carries so much risk that it's really just a leveraged investment, not an arb opp.
There is no such thing as "not taking any risk" or a "risk free" investment. The idea that arbitrage is without risk is, kinda amusing, if you think about it.
Even buying the put options I described to protect the position involves risk, though it does reduce the level of risk dramatically.
As others have said, by definition, an arbitrage is risk free (or, in practice, nearly risk free).
Buying extremely risky Greek Bonds, with borrowed USD, is just making a leveraged investment.
Considering the transaction costs you'll pay, as a small time buyer, and the various worked in charges, you will certainly be losing out, when the risk etc is factored in.
Its a bad way to fund your startup; its up there with buying lottery tickets, or playing roulette to make more money: might work out ok, sometimes, or even all the times you try it - but its a negative expectation thing to do.
But hey, just keep on thinking that gold is very risky.... sucker.
(Where price of money is a synonym for interest rate.)
The Greek Bonds you mention, you also consider 'money'. Well, not all 'money' is the same. That's why you get paid more if you buy Greek bonds than if you buy German Bonds, to the same Euro value: risk premium.
Its not arbitrage if you are just being paid for taking on risk, by definition.
You're right that gold is not the same as USD. It is less risky.
You'd do well to not tell me what I believe about various asset classes, especially when it is clear you have not even read the original comment I made.
By definition, people engaging in arbitrage are being paid to take the risk that the arbitrage might fail. The idea that there is such a thing as a risk-free form of property is fallacious.
Thus your arbitrary demand that I be talking about something risk free is an impossible standard (and quite off the point... but then, maybe derailing the possibility of sophisticated financial discussion was your goal?)
I mentioned hedging risk, and everything else you've brought up in my original comment.
PS: Get a loan at 0% interest, buy an option on gold at 1000$ and short gold at 1100$. Now most of the time things are priced in such a way that you will lose money on this trade however if people are selling the options to cheaply then you could execute this trade and be guaranteed to make money. Assuming the people that sell you the option don't default. Unfortunately, you can make money by selling options worth more than your capital so you come out ahead on average and if bad things happen you are ridiculously broke but effectively still at zero. Sort of like me making a billion dollar bet that the redskins don't go undefeated this year, it's easy for me to price those risks based on the idea I would only go broke in such a way it they seem really attractive even if they are next to worthless.
Not a single response to my comment has been on the actual topic of this submission. Most of them have been frankly, dishonest, and the only thing I'm concluding from this is that this site is inhabited by people who are such financial neophytes that they think there's such a thing as a "riskless transaction".
So, no, you don't get to assert that I assumed something and then call me a liar when I point out that I didn't say it, especially in the face of me pointing out the difference between leverage investments or margin investments and arbitrage in the original comment, which is proof positive that I didn't say they were the same.
Or, well, you can do that, but you force me to conclude that this is not a place where intelligent discussion can take place.
Sorry, but on top of confusing leverage and arbitration (AKA arbitration works even if your not taking out a loan but you can use a loan's leverage to increase your return). Your also making the mistake that inflation is bad when you hold another asset. If you buy 1000$ worth of wood and you get significant inflation that wood is going to be worth more dollars not fewer dollars when you sell it. When you get a loan inflation is good and deflation is bad, when you give someone a loan inflation is bad and deflation is good.
PS: When you get a loan you are required to pay back X% more than than you borrowed but that percentage is normally independent of the inflation rate for some period of time. It's true that with CC they will adjust their rates based on inflation, but the only reason this could work is the rate is fixed for some period of time even if inflation changes.
All in a thread where I responded to someone who lied about what I said, and pointed out that I didn't say that at all, and in fact, I said the opposite.
But what I actually said does not matter to you, or others commenting here. You're dishonest, and a perfect example of why HN sucks for trying to have a worthwhile discussion.
"Dollars spent to pay off a loan are worth less than dollars you get at the beginning of the loan." (This is Correct)
"This means, the asset you put your money into, needs to return not only enough to cover the interests & fees on the credit cards over the time period, but" (up to here everything is fine) "the monetary inflation rate over the time period." (This is literally true, but misses the point while inflation makes this easier not harder if inflation is meaningful your not doing arbitration.)
The point I am trying to make is if you have a 0 interest loan for 1 year and you buy a 1 year bond that pays 1% interest then great you have arbitrage. But, if you have that same loan buy a 2 year bond with a that pays 2% it's become speculation because the value of a 2 year bond in at 1 years is dependent on inflation and you either need to sell that bond at market rates or get a new loan. So, if inflation is important your not doing arbitration.
However, as the submitter mentioned, any cash advance, balance transfer, etc. typically incurs at least 3% interest and/or transfer fees which really hurts potential returns. I'd be amazed if you can find a way to buy any investment vehicle with a credit card, forcing you to use the 3+% cash advance.
When you further factor in the time it takes up cards and the low credit limits you'll likely get, this strategy probably won't be worth it.
What happened to good old fashioned shame and just getting on with your own business? Everyone wants to be a fucking celebrity.
These types of blog posts are merely confessionals with learning points attached that the confessor hopes the reader would find salient. You apparently didn't. And...?