brockwhittaker

You're conflating micro and macro price movements. Sure, you can't predict black swan events with technical analysis, but it wouldn't be out of the question to predict short term fluctuations based on a mixture of market psychology and herd thinking.

I don't employ any technical analysis in trading, nor am I a strong advocate, but technical analysis is more about reactionary psychology than about predicting the future. In the most micro sense, the market is dictated by single individuals buying and selling stock, and in the broadest sense, it's a statistical result of millions, or billions of unknowns. Those are two totally different games.

Thanks for the note! I'll change the wording in my article WRT bills/notes. :)

With regards to safety, I noted that I think there are two types of safety to note here:

1. Default risk. 2. Asset price volatility.

Ultimately if someone is willing and able to hold to expiry, they aren't subject to #2, but this clearly wasn't the case with SVB and may also be the case with other institutions. I think it lacks nuance to not consider the middle states between the purchase of a bond and the full return of the bond upon expiry.

Looks like tons of sites are down due to a Fastly outage.

I haven’t heard much from Bordeaux on crémants, but i can vouch for burgundy and loire for crémants that perform as well as many champagnes, for under $25.

This is also true historically to some effect. The bordeaux classification of 1855 (which remains in effect) was in large part done on price.

yep! i just spun down that service and didn’t bother to use it again, i wanted something simpler.

sorry I just made this site this morning to post this article. it's just a simple node-http server! I don't write much :)

This is totally my personal bias, but I'm unsure that speculation has a positive value in the housing market, and I think governments should largely try to ensure that as many people as possible can afford homes, rather than ensuring that people can profit off the sales of their homes.

In the United States, people have long seen real estate as a path to wealth (unlike Japan, for example), so it's difficult to reason that people's primary homes shouldn't be their escape hatch into retirement (e.g. the dream of someone buying a house in 1980s Palo Alto and selling it in 2022).

I'm not sure that's how it works—at least in the case of NYC. The ~4% tax only applies to those with residence within the city's limits. If you live in Westchester however and work in Manhattan, you escape the 4% income tax (but instead pay higher property taxes).

https://tax.custhelp.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/571/~/i-don...

They label property taxes as an absolute value paid, rather than as a percentage. Illinois per the Tax Foundation had the second highest rate*. In fact, it speaks to Illinois' and Chicago's affordability** that with such a high marginal rate, their property taxes as a dollar amount are on-par with many other states.

* https://taxfoundation.org/how-high-are-property-taxes-in-you... ** https://resources.oxfordeconomics.com/hubfs/Housing_affordab...

+1, lest we forget the original premise behind VC returns was that seed checks had huge returns because most people weren't willing to take on the risk, timeline or probability distribution of funding startups. Now everyone is willing to, so that arb is gone.

Aside from giving your money away to specific under-resourced groups, is the second best thing to just not spend your money?

I think that taking money out of the system entirely means less demand competition for everyone else, which means more resources for others.

also the amount of fun is close to zero sum in life. that’s why kids can play with cardboard boxes and adults can’t figure out how to have any fun. reducing alcohol for a while will reduce fun, but then your threshold/sensitivity for what is enjoyable will increase, and the endorphins will return.

it's never as easy as find-and-replace :)

Not really, because printing money implies a low cost to produce new "money" into the system. It’s more like defaulting to gold as well. El Salvador can buy more gold but at a very high cost that isn’t akin to printing money.

Wow, the graphics on this site are beautiful and elegantly polished.

You're getting downvoted because it's a longtime well-known problem of the blockchain. The answer to your question is that nobody can reverse the transaction or undo it. That's kind of the point, for better or or for $23m worse.

As someone who also dropped out, I think college will always be there for Simon. You go to college to become employable. I learned far more on the job than in school—and dropping out didn't hinder me becoming a good engineer—it expedited it.

Go back to college when you're older and then study something you'll appreciate learning. Hungry kids like this who want to start making stuff in the real world should do just that.

but actually this is the worst possible solution to this and causes tons of issues.

Yes it is.

Superfund sites are bio hazardous cleanup sites so that makes sense given that it was one of the most ecologically devastated places in the US, right?

Not all shares have voting power, and even so the voting power of those shares (if they were 2% of the company for example) may be proportionally tiny compared to the founders/board/execs.

For example shareholders don't have any control at FB, since Mark controls 51% of the voting power.

While JS doesn’t have native support I do this with while (true) and a break clause. It’s very useful at times.

As someone who's forgotten almost all college calculus, this was incredibly well written and understandable!

> One of those things that perhaps it would have been better that they had not invented.

I think you're off base on this. The ensuing financial mishaps just made the model better, but the creation of Black-Scholes brought us from 0% to 90% of the way to where we are today, where modern derivatives insure product price swings for almost everything across the world. Since then, a patch-work of model changes have brought us closer to perfect pricing through the realization that many markets have higher kurtosis.

You’re being downvoted because you’re mentioning a strategy. This is not educational. Furthermore, as someone who does a lot of quantitative research on the market I’m not convinced at all that your strategy will beat the market when adjusting for risk.

You also say things that are unintelligible to someone who knows nothing about the market. Buy undervalued stocks? What does that mean? Most people think stocks with lower share prices are cheaper — let alone something that’s not dead wrong like evaluating based off P/E ratio, which is still incredibly wrong.

So I’d recommend against giving trading advice to someone asking for how to educate themselves.

I don’t think diving into reports is the right step for someone who’s asking where to start.

You need a lot of context for what you’re seeing in your average quarterly. Perhaps start with reading something like The Intelligent Investor to understand fundamental analysis, then read them.

We largely live in an inflation-free environment right now, so I just don't believe that argument necessarily, as I might have twenty years ago.

30 years of 1% inflation = 26% diminished buying power

30 years of 4% inflation = 70% diminished buying power

This is why we in theory have regulations preventing uninformed traders from using options, which RH has effectively skirted around.

RH is taking the same advantage that Juul got – free marketing and a lot of young people abusing the product. Wondering if they'll get the same crackdown as well.

Adjusted for probability, upside and downside are theoretically the same with options.

> Unlike when purchasing long positions in stocks, when trading options it's possible to lose many times more money than you initially put in.

The converse is also true. It’s entirely possible to almost guarantee yourself a tiny profit and almost no downside risk as it is to create infinite risk.

So EMH definitely maps to the options market.