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bpodgursky

6,935 karma · joined July 23, 2010

https://github.com/bpodgursky

bpodgursky@gmail.com

[ my public key: https://keybase.io/bpodgursky; my proof: https://keybase.io/bpodgursky/sigs/FNThtR3JlvWasZGY-jpuDzwL8SaDrc9u-41XvYefUIw ]

Just curious!

submissionscomments
bpodgursky··on Pacing the Frontier is not the actual goal for AI labs
Yes, both labs already have monstrous internal teacher models they don't sell for inference, this is generally acknowledged. They cut releases for the public just to keep revenues growing, it's not their actual frontier.
bpodgursky··on Palantir founder purchases large swath of forest in Sweden
$600/acre for timber forest???

I had no idea Sweden was this cheap. Why wouldn't he drop $22mm on this...

bpodgursky··on Claude Sonnet 5.5
Fable 5.5 probably drops soon so it would just be confusing.
bpodgursky··on Has Violence Against Teachers Become Accepted by Society?
OK — Under-represented minorities would be expelled at higher rates than whites and asians, and the district would get sued for discrimination.
bpodgursky··on SpaceX's Starship launching to orbit for first time ever today
The last few missions have been successful at the primary objectives so there's not necessarily a pressing need to fix anything before the next launch.
bpodgursky··on Owed a billion dollars in Nvidia stock
Uh the vast majority of people exercise and hold to start the clock on LTCG. Very rare and frankly mostly financially unsophisticated people who immediately sell just to cash out.
bpodgursky··on Allegations of US interference in Quebec election
Doesn't Canada have trade barriers literally between their own provinces? I'm not sure Canada has a lot of ground to stand on here, if provinces are arguing about trade between themselves. Why not negotiate independently? They are free agents.
bpodgursky··on Does Georgism work? Five years later
Have you tried?

I'm not saying this doesn't happen, but probably 80% of the value of lobbying comes from just showing up and talking to the representative. You won't know what works, unless you do the same.

bpodgursky··on Promising discoveries about the potential for life on one of Saturn’s icy moons
Not really, there has been a lot of crossover of organic-carrying meteors within our own solar system, it's pretty plausible that multiple bodies in our solar system have life from a single origin event, which doesn't say anything about the rest of the universe.
bpodgursky··on Does Georgism work? Five years later
The OP is saying, if you show up with a bill to fix one of these problems, in a scoped way — like, actual working text they can put to a vote, not a general ideal of what to do — and can explain exactly what you're trying to solve, you have a decent chance of them putting it on the floor.

Just in general saying "please fix professional licensing" isn't actionable, you aren't doing the work for them. You're asking them to turn a vague idea into law, when it wasn't their problem to start with.

bpodgursky··on Google’s Project Suncatcher to put ML infrastructure in space
- Getting power there is a headache (unless Greenland allows microreactors, which is a political headache). Note: Iceland has geothermal, not really Greenland.

- You still do need staff, it's not cheap building a mini city for 200 maintenance worker, much less the 5,000+ construction crew, and you'll have to pay premium to get people to actually do it

bpodgursky··on U.S. appeals court upholds designation of Anthropic as supply chain risk
None of them really believe our economic or political systems will be recognizable by 2029. Everyone's playing for position in the short takeoff.
bpodgursky··on ASML says it sold 'absolutely nothing' in Europe in 2026
No, they have not been "stepping up" relative to the existential threat at their door. They are still doing 10% of the minimum you'd expect from someone whose literal lives and civilization are at risk from a barbarian threat literally murdering their neighbors (and playing games with their own sovereignty more recently, with drone incursions).
bpodgursky··on ASML says it sold 'absolutely nothing' in Europe in 2026
Are you for real? Look into France's pension situation. The median pensioner has HIGHER INCOME than the median working adult. And retirement was at 62!

No, there have been absolutely no real cuts to elderly care, the UK's triple lock ensures that the situation gets monotonically worse until the system collapses.

bpodgursky··on ASML says it sold 'absolutely nothing' in Europe in 2026
Sorry this is a crazy interpretation of events.

Europe has 15x the GDP of Russia. If they were "hell bent" on militarily defeating Russia, they could have made even tiny sacrifices to the social welfare system, diverted industrial production to military aid, and drowned Ukraine in help. That was a very achievable goal, and they didn't do it.

Instead, the vacillated on importing US natural gas, continued shutting down nuclear power plants, and paid Russia MORE CASH FOR OIL than they ended up giving Ukraine in military aid! They did not in fact, dedicate themselves to this war in any way shape or form.

bpodgursky··on Oracle cites 'force majeure' to shield itself on controversial data center
I mean the literal guidance is that Oracle may not make money on the datacenter by 2028 because they won't be able to turn it on.

How profitable a datacenter is, is kind of irrelevant to the convo, if you are unable to power it due to material shortages.

bpodgursky··on Oracle cites 'force majeure' to shield itself on controversial data center
Everyone is interpreting this as a sign the bubble is bursting, when the actual story is costs for materials and labor are going up and delays are happening because so many data centers are getting built.

If Oracle was able to build the data center under-cost and faster than expected, that would be a better sign the bubble was bursting!

bpodgursky··on Feds Target AI Critics as "Foreign Agents"
I believe I live in the real world, where we have to figure out how to integrate abstract principles in a manner that allows our survival as a civilization.

Reciprocity is a pretty straightforward strategy — we can allow uninhibited competing points of view from countries that themselves allow unlimited speech internally.

bpodgursky··on Feds Target AI Critics as "Foreign Agents"
We should and should cut out sources of foreign funding and support, and prosecute and publicize genuine foreign agents, while allowing people to exercise their political rights.
bpodgursky··on Feds Target AI Critics as "Foreign Agents"
All effective foreign interference takes popular sentiments and helps organize and focus it. You can't create movements without ground support.

But the thing is, there are a LOT of issues where the masses are generally grumpy but don't act on it. Civilization only really functions because people don't shut down the country over every populist urge. Effective agitprop amplifies this and makes it happen.

bpodgursky··on Claude discovers a novel enzyme system with CRISPR-like repeats
The review time on top journals is multiple years now (your paper will go through many review loops each of which takes months). It's just totally unworkable for active research, whether you're a student or a corporation.
bpodgursky··on Claude discovers a novel enzyme system with CRISPR-like repeats
Biosafety is a very real concern but "lab" is a big bucket, a molecular genetics lab can't synthesize new viruses out of thin air if it's not a virology lab. Sequencers sequence etc. The lab has the equipment it has.
bpodgursky··on Woman Arrested, Dragged Away After Speaking About Flock at City Council Meeting
> Later in the evening Mia Heider tried to speak out about Flock during public comments about a housing issue. Police arrested her while Schrag looked on. “Sorry ma’m,” the mayor said as police led Heider away in handcuffs.

I mean, what is the appropriate response to someone refusing follow protocol after giving guidance that there's a different topic at hand now? There was a comment session on Flock cameras, people talked about it, then they moved onto housing. You can't run a public meeting where people get to drag every issue back to their favorite issue uninhibited, it just literally doesn't work. The meeting would run 24/7/365 and still nothing would get done.

bpodgursky··on The current balance of power in open models
They are pushing for regulation because they are human being and don't want all human beings to die.

I'm sorry you are so jaded you can't recognize honesty when you see it, but that is what everyone deep in the AI space, including the non-executive researchers, are worried about.

bpodgursky··on The current balance of power in open models
It actually does help a lot to be able to say your OpenAI agent was the fault. People recognize the name. The press doesn't want to write about Better Home Life Insurance agents running loose on the internet, nobody cares.
bpodgursky··on Claude Code reads AGENTS.md only when telemetry is on [fixed]
Right... you can just do it yourself.
bpodgursky··on Claude Code reads AGENTS.md only when telemetry is on [fixed]
This is the most symbolic and unimportant change in history (you can literally just symlink), I think people will be fine.
bpodgursky··on The current balance of power in open models
Enterprises have barely deployed empowered agents yet. The models capable of doing this have only been available for months. Give it a little time, it's coming.
bpodgursky··on The current balance of power in open models
I've actually flipped on this the last few days because of liability.

The big labs are going to be on the hook for rogue behavior by Claude or Sol. Customers will be able to sue for damages and deflect regulators if their customer data is abused or their agents attack external services.

If you use a Chinese OSS model and it goes rogue? Yeah good luck with that, your shop is 100% on the hook.

bpodgursky··on Claude Opus 5.5
Everyone knows both labs have internal models which outperform the frontier. All releases are to match market parity and demand for spend, the rest of the compute is used for training. It's not worth arguing about this.
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