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bpodgursky

6,929 karma · joined July 23, 2010

https://github.com/bpodgursky

bpodgursky@gmail.com

[ my public key: https://keybase.io/bpodgursky; my proof: https://keybase.io/bpodgursky/sigs/FNThtR3JlvWasZGY-jpuDzwL8SaDrc9u-41XvYefUIw ]

Just curious!

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bpodgursky··on Meta and Microsoft take steps to reduce employee usage of Claude AI
Limited to $10,000/employee/month lol. This is just to cut off a few people doing absurd things with low ROI. Don't read too much into it.
bpodgursky··on Nature's capacity to 'bounce back' when species are lost is overestimated: study
They never actually stopped fishing it though. It's regulated at a level to prevent 100% collapse, there was never political support to let it truly recover by banning fishing for a decade or two.
bpodgursky··on The technology to eradicate mosquito-borne disease exists
Basically 0, there are only a few species of mosquito that carry disease. Other species fulfill all other ecological roles without spreading horrible diseases.
bpodgursky··on Improper redaction reveals Google Data Center water and electricity usage
OK sure but this is like defense in depth. It's a negligible amount of water, most of it doesn't evaporate, and most of what does rains somewhere it's useful anyway. The actual damage here is microscopic.
bpodgursky··on Improper redaction reveals Google Data Center water and electricity usage
Also even in the totally fake scenario where that water completely evaporates, it's just gonna rain on Iowa a bit more.
bpodgursky··on So You Think You Could Be an Electrician?
Well, in principle the economy scales to the labor constraint.

Obviously there are practical limitations to how fast things can rearrange but there's no reason in principle you couldn't have an economy where everyone retrained into blue collar work, and all white collar job needs were handled by the magic internet box.

bpodgursky··on We're going to need default hard budget caps on pretty much everything
How do you hard-cap S3 and other persistent data storage?

"Sorry, you had a hard cap on AWS spend so we deleted all your S3 data on August 27th". Yeah not going to fly.

bpodgursky··on I quit OpenAI because its culture is broken
I honestly would love to understand — is this your mental model of what motivates the labs to move forward?
bpodgursky··on Power approval set to delay Oracle's Wisconsin AI datacenter
Feels like Oracle outsourced all their datacenter construction to organizations that were not nimble enough to line up contingency plans for alternative power sources and expected grid connections to happen "like normal".

Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX even Google have been more hands-on and haven't seen these power issues plaguing Oracle, probably because they have an actual internal A-teams on it, not lethargic contractors.

bpodgursky··on We're Missing a Key Reason Why Americans Hate AI
I'm not convinced Americans really have strong feelings about AI, relative to other issues. The data center pushback seems to be mostly literally about stopping data center construction in their counties. If you build them in Argentina or Norway, they'll stop paying attention.

I think the will be negative if you push an answer out of them, but it's not something Americans are going out to protest and rallying around. There are a LOT of issues people are passively 60% negative on but it doesn't influence their votes.

bpodgursky··on Meta Uses A.I. Data Centers to Avoid Billions in Federal Taxes
No... payroll comes from revenue, not profits.
bpodgursky··on Meta Uses A.I. Data Centers to Avoid Billions in Federal Taxes
It doesn't work. US corporate profits were $4T in 2025, income tax receipts were $5.23T.

Even if you taxed corporate profits at 100% (which of course, takes the stock market to zero and effectively ends the economy, but ignoring that) you have a huge gap.

bpodgursky··on Meta Uses A.I. Data Centers to Avoid Billions in Federal Taxes
That's not that true in the US. In fact, most US rich "avoid" taxes because their income is capital gains, NOT by avoiding taxes on cash income (this is why CEOs don't have high cash compensation).

He's French and used to the rich avoiding taxation by changing jurisdictions in Europe. Well, the US has global income taxation, for better or for worse, you are on the hook everywhere. It's a different world.

bpodgursky··on Meta Uses A.I. Data Centers to Avoid Billions in Federal Taxes
The actual solution here is to eliminate the corporate income tax and capture the money via higher capital gains and dividend income taxes.

All of this boils down to politicians knowing (even if they can't say it publicly) that the corporate taxes are badly structured and tax incentives are often revenue-positive (since in reality, every economist knows you should not be taxing business inputs, and in fact European VATs are structured around this idea), but being unable politically to do the sane thing and capture the income at a point it can't easily be gamed.

bpodgursky··on NRC issues first U.S. construction permit for a BWRX-300 small modular reactor
When I google "what percent of a coal plant operations is cost of fuel" the response is:

> The cost of fuel typically accounts for 70% to 75% of a running coal-fired power plant's variable operating expenses.

I'm not going to do deep research here but it sounds pretty right. And I don't think solar is 4x cheaper than coal yet, especially solar + battery to spread out the load over non producing hours.

bpodgursky··on NRC issues first U.S. construction permit for a BWRX-300 small modular reactor
The footprint is irrelevant compared to the top competitor (solar).
bpodgursky··on Tesla takes on $30B in credit as it approaches unprofitability
I'm not going to defend the Cybertruck execution, clearly they misjudged the demand.

But Optimus is a fair play. Don't grub for scraps in an efficient competitive market. Make a new market, go big or go home.

bpodgursky··on Tesla takes on $30B in credit as it approaches unprofitability
I'm not convinced Tesla's schizophrenic strategy is any worse than the strategy of the legacy American automakers, which is to sleepwalk directly into a volcano (when Chinese EV manufactures break into the market with $10k SUVs)
bpodgursky··on NASA asked several former SR-71A staffers to help secret restart
There is a reasonably high chance Jared Isaacman will try to fly this himself.
bpodgursky··on Pacing the Frontier is not the actual goal for AI labs
Yes, both labs already have monstrous internal teacher models they don't sell for inference, this is generally acknowledged. They cut releases for the public just to keep revenues growing, it's not their actual frontier.
bpodgursky··on Palantir founder purchases large swath of forest in Sweden
$600/acre for timber forest???

I had no idea Sweden was this cheap. Why wouldn't he drop $22mm on this...

bpodgursky··on Claude Sonnet 5.5
Fable 5.5 probably drops soon so it would just be confusing.
bpodgursky··on Has Violence Against Teachers Become Accepted by Society?
OK — Under-represented minorities would be expelled at higher rates than whites and asians, and the district would get sued for discrimination.
bpodgursky··on SpaceX's Starship launching to orbit for first time ever today
The last few missions have been successful at the primary objectives so there's not necessarily a pressing need to fix anything before the next launch.
bpodgursky··on Owed a billion dollars in Nvidia stock
Uh the vast majority of people exercise and hold to start the clock on LTCG. Very rare and frankly mostly financially unsophisticated people who immediately sell just to cash out.
bpodgursky··on Allegations of US interference in Quebec election
Doesn't Canada have trade barriers literally between their own provinces? I'm not sure Canada has a lot of ground to stand on here, if provinces are arguing about trade between themselves. Why not negotiate independently? They are free agents.
bpodgursky··on Does Georgism work? Five years later
Have you tried?

I'm not saying this doesn't happen, but probably 80% of the value of lobbying comes from just showing up and talking to the representative. You won't know what works, unless you do the same.

bpodgursky··on Promising discoveries about the potential for life on one of Saturn’s icy moons
Not really, there has been a lot of crossover of organic-carrying meteors within our own solar system, it's pretty plausible that multiple bodies in our solar system have life from a single origin event, which doesn't say anything about the rest of the universe.
bpodgursky··on Does Georgism work? Five years later
The OP is saying, if you show up with a bill to fix one of these problems, in a scoped way — like, actual working text they can put to a vote, not a general ideal of what to do — and can explain exactly what you're trying to solve, you have a decent chance of them putting it on the floor.

Just in general saying "please fix professional licensing" isn't actionable, you aren't doing the work for them. You're asking them to turn a vague idea into law, when it wasn't their problem to start with.

bpodgursky··on Google’s Project Suncatcher to put ML infrastructure in space
- Getting power there is a headache (unless Greenland allows microreactors, which is a political headache). Note: Iceland has geothermal, not really Greenland.

- You still do need staff, it's not cheap building a mini city for 200 maintenance worker, much less the 5,000+ construction crew, and you'll have to pay premium to get people to actually do it

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