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baybal2

13,766 karma · joined June 12, 2016

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baybal2··on The Deported
Russia is coincindentally heading right the way of Ottoman empire, seemingly step, by step.

Decades of futile attempts to retake Balkans after Greek revolt lit the fire in Europe, and caused a chain reaction of support for Ottoman dismantlement.

For Russia to survive as a state in coming decades, it will not need a "Russian Washington," but rather somebody more like a Russian Ataturk.

baybal2··on I think the GNOME designers are incompetent
They would never have it because nobody would work with them.

It's an OSS projects with the most abrasive, and socially inept people around, seemingly gathered together on purpose. GNOME had few hundred active contributors on its peak, now down to at most 20-30 people.

The proliferation of *Kits is very much an intentional policy by RedHat to pull the classical "Embrace, Extend, Extinguish" scheme, except when they do the extinguish thing, the remaining people have no other option, but to move to RedHat's platform.

baybal2··on The Return of Industrial Warfare
An excellent article when it comes to throwing a dry fact into the face.

An even greater commentary been provided by this tweet: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1539623100144295936

How did America pump out liberty ships faster than even China can build ships today during the WW2?

US military production was a byproduct of its great civilian heavy industry. US tanks, ships, airplanes, bomber, guns were mostly made by factories repurposed from making civilian goods. So when the demand for them waned, so did the raw military potential. This was in contract to USSR, where civilian manufacturing was a byproduct of weapon production.

American military planners knew that all well during the late cold war, and its pursuit of "smart weapons" was an attempt to substitute quality for quantity, and capitalise on American leadership in electronics. This paid out extremely well. Even first generation smart munitions were many times more efficient.

After the Cold War, US peacetime military planning started to stagnate, and finally disappeared due to obsession with "special operations" during the War on Terror, and military procurement becoming a business like operation. By only allowing expensive toys winning procurement competitions, the military pigeonholed itself into extremely uncompetitive purchasing position.

While USA has no rivals in arms exports for things like fighter jets, nearly no brand new weapon systems developed after year 2000 are bought by US allies. As you see even now, most bought US hardware today is still from the Cold War era, which is a proof of the above. Look at the super expensive titanium M777 howitzer: they wanted to restart its production recently, but... surprise! They have to buy its titanium from Russia. F35's titanium bulkheads are now turning into a similar issue.

US electronics is no longer an edge for its military industry, and more likely a liability. What however the West can deny China, and Russia are high grade machine tools, and other implements for the heavy industry: modern Chinese steel industry was built by Dutch, car industry by Germans and Italians, materials by Japan, electronics assembly by Taiwanese, and heavy machinery by Koreans.

baybal2··on The Case for a Confederal Europe
Despite the trollish zeal of your argument, I believe this dangerous sentiment needs to be properly refuted.

> The parliament is made of power hungry MPs and a commission full of elitist jackasses, with a million and one agendas

An alternative to people ready to fight, and campaign for a place in parliament are people without any agency in the fate of the country, and nothing to lose if they want to massively harm the country.

The worst alternative by far is to have a parliament full of uncharismatic yes-men, who would be easily dominated once some charismatic Der Fuhrer would appear.

baybal2··on 10mbps over 1km on a single pair of wires
DSL and 10BASE-T1L are not quote the same.

10BASE-T1L PHY fits on a single chip, without much of analog trickery, and the whole line encoding, signal processing is much simpler.

10BASE-T1L is what will go into 1 dollar devices, not a $100 modem.

baybal2··on Orkut
It's absolutely mindboggling how Google had 2nd largest social network after Facebook for some years, and then just simply closed it because NIH.
baybal2··on Over 13k Vivo phones found to be using same IMEI number (2020)
The major benefit of making embedded devices with exactly same firmware from device to device is that you can pre-order memory chips already flashed.

Network cards do run into extremely uncommon MAC collisions because they just generate a random MAC on first start, which is then read, and printed after manufacturing.

baybal2··on How Many Tracks Do Train Stations Need?
In China, it's 6-8 per a large city, and up to 12 in a megacity.
baybal2··on Keeping IC Packages Cool
There are very, very few good heat conductors which are dielectrics.

Intrinsic semiconductors, and Beryllium Oxide. Neither are cheap enough for mass market products.

baybal2··on Does the Tank Have a Future?
Why you need a tank in 21st century:

1. When enemy has tons of artillery, and any light armour is doomed in open field

2. The only military unit capable of offensive operation during nuclear warfare

For as long as nuclear weapons are there, there will be a need for an all-terrain nuclear bunker with gun.

baybal2··on Purdue Starts Comprehensive Semiconductor Degree Programs in U.S.
I wanted to go into semi 2007-2009. Fortunately, I stumbled on two one very senior TSMC engineers who kind of became informal mentors to me, and they talked me off. And by the way were with Morris Chang at ITRI.

Points they told:

1. A mandatory PhD just to get at internship

2. Few years of unpaid internship needed to get a coffee porter job, before you are let anywhere close to the process

3. A postdoc is required to get a real R&D cred

4. 7-10 years in R&D sweatshop before any real promotion

5. Get very lucky

6. In 20-30 years of career, you can get to a VP level, where you can hold the company by the balls with critical knowledge. Then... and only then, you will look up to a 7 digit salary.

baybal2··on US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis
Yes, because he isn't afraid. He attacked because of once in a lifetime perfect storm: USA maxing out its credit card, CoVID, China hunkering down, Molotov-Ribbentrop 2.0 with Germany, highest access to Western lobbyists it ever had, Turkey in turmoil, and so, so, so.

He will not let the West to recover. Were his 200,000 troops to march into Poland instead of Ukraine in February, the entirety of NATO in Europe would' be in a giant trouble until USA would've brought forces from North America.

For as long as the West will be showing fear, he will continue to attack.

baybal2··on Lilium achieves first main wing transition for all-electric aircraft [video]
Lilium is a shady company

First, it's people without even most basic aeronautic backround designing an aircraft.

Second, the number of flaws with their scheme being pointed by experts is so huge they cannot possibly get certified without throwing out everything, and redesigning completely from scratch.

Third, they finally hired somebody with the background, but so far nobody seen any change from "submarine ramen startup," to a serious company happening. Unlike with SpaceX, where Elon promptly yielded to professional engineers shutting down his fantasies like an SSTO design, 3D printing the whole rocket, or developing an ion engine to replace chemical one for last stages.

Fourth, they lash out on all criticism with "you have no vision," it's "aircraft 2.0," and similar dismissal.

Fifth, they courted investors with physically unachievable performance figures.

To me it's very clear, the company is heading the way of "HTML supercomputer"

P.S. Speak of the devil, it's already starting: https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2022-06-02/lilium-i...

baybal2··on Not just a fence: The story of a stainless steel status symbol
There are countries where a washing machine is a status symbol
baybal2··on Arduino raises $32M Series B round
Arduino is to commercial embedded development as what Javascript is to Java.

I had the first Arduino model with a COM port bought to me by my late mother to spike my interest into computer stuff when I was in high school.

I grew a bit over confident with what I can do, when on my first job I went on to fix an MP3 player firmware so it don't crash from Russian in ID3 tags.

I told the boss the fix is trivial, then it took me 3 month to find out that whatever you knew of garden variety C++ is not working in the world of hardcore C, and that hardware needs control down to clock cycles, registers, and assembly instructions. It was a sink, or swim experience.

baybal2··on No Army? No Problem: Defending the Home Front in Ancient Greece
You are bringing up a beautiful question.

Were Luddites pro-elite, or anti-elite? Factory technology was definitely something both hated, and intentionally propagated.

Violent conflicts were fought by different stacking frame manufacturers for making them cheaper, and more efficient than one other.

Similarly Saddam attacked Kuwait on the premise of selling oil cheap, and diluting his power.

Knowledge, sophistication, and culture was an alternative to "eliteness" given by having the biggest stick around.

What Greek, and Roman elites realised naturally 2000 years ago, and what we do not now is that knowledge, and culture were power, and that power must be prevented from being monopolised.

Scholars, historians, artisans, and scribes were patronised by the state to prevent "eliteness" being monopolised by clans, and powerful families.

A good way to prevent a man with the biggest stick from seizing power is to give more sticks to other people. And similarly "cultural eliteness" was kept accessible to foreign gentry to drag them into Greek society, so they don't try to reach "elitness" by swinging the stick.

baybal2··on No Army? No Problem: Defending the Home Front in Ancient Greece
There were many more books historically than most people uninterested in history suspect up do deep antiquity.

Books were very precious. A 5th century monthly salary of a scribe was enough to buy a house.

Yet, 99%+ of written data from Greece, and Rome is lost. We lost both archival data, and literature. First to rot, second to book burning.

Literature was state sponsored for most of classical period, and "casual" writing all about propagating Greek culture to "not-so-Greeks" (Thracians, North Africans)

Literature was subsidised not so much for elites, but to create more elites

Luddites, and book burners are your typical strongman elite who rule by swinging a club.

baybal2··on Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab
> If it's a national priority, you can get some production going a lot faster than this.

Defeating CoVID was too a national priority. Did they manage to build a single new mask manufacturing line?

No, but they actually tried really hard. Dozens of companies were recruited for the effort, and they just gave up after realising that they can't even get a single part in the blowing machine to be made in the US.

baybal2··on Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab
You have just asked why we can't "just move manufacturing out of China:"

There are no individual chemical plants, there are huge chemical complexes owned by many companies with own well guarded know hows. There may be 2-4 suppliers in a row producing some intermediary product used in making of only 1 output.

Just to make the semiconductor grade hyperpure propanol you need ultrapure catalysts, ultrapure sulphuric acid, ultrapure water, and ultrapure input hydrocarbon stock. Ah, forgot, you also needs an ultrapure tare manufacturer, because bottles you ship ultrapure materials are single use.

You need decades just to replicate this. Now you need to move 100+ of such material chains.

> If it's just for historical and/or economical reason

Simple answer, yes! Taiwan has quietly swallowed near an entirety of the wider precision manufacturing industry.

It been consistently swallowing very capital intensive industries producing exportable niche products one after another simply because nobody else been taking such hard, and risky ventures. Yes, their profitability is not high, but their "moat" is gigantic.

Taiwan been an industrial titan for 20+ years, and the US only finds out about it now.

baybal2··on Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab
This will not do much with Taiwan being a single source for semiconductor manufacturing supplies.

Much of critical blockers for chemicals, consumables, materials will still be in Taiwan just because the semi industry is that huge there.

All 300mm fabs working outside of Taiwan are just few shipments of consumables away from stalling all the time.

When Russia attacks Ukraine, the 3rd world is fucked.

When China attacks Taiwan, the 1st world is fucked.

baybal2··on In 1997, Wired Predicts Things That Could Go Wrong in the 21st Century (2021)
Excuse me, what is that "woke" thing everybody is talking about, and nobody seem to be able to tell what it is?
baybal2··on Japan tested a giant turbine that generates electricity using deep ocean current
Is this out of the same ballpark as "thermal powerplants will boil the atmosphere."

The entire humankind's power consumption is completely microscopic in comparison to any natural weather phenomena.

We are 0.0000000000001% of energy the Earth dissipates.

baybal2··on Germany is offering a summer of cheap trains
> When the German parliament approved a new measure this month slashing public transit fares nationwide for three months this summer, the move reflected the severity of the nation’s energy crisis. To reduce its heavy reliance on Russian gas and oil after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany is desperate to find ways to reduce its fuel consumption and push more drivers to take trains and buses.

The entire premise that Germany is "mortally reliant" on Russian gas is plainly wrong.

Double digit of gas Germany imports ends up as its electricity exports. Only 20% of the gas actually goes to the industry.

baybal2··on RED is suing Nikon for infringing on its video compression patents
Canon is a long story, they been in, and out of the sensor game over the years

They eventually made a CMOS sensor development from scratch

baybal2··on RED is suing Nikon for infringing on its video compression patents
Very surprised to see them still kicking, and preparing a 5th generation sensor by themselves.

https://m.dpreview.com/news/1885231343/sigma-releases-update...

They are really dinosaurs of electronic imaging. Sans Sony, I can say ALL sensor makers from the dawn of the era died off, or were sold/resold a million times.

baybal2··on What Happened to Perl 7?
> How is this any different from having a repeat of the python2->python3 fiasco

Perl already had python2->python 3000 fiasco before python: PERL6

baybal2··on A Kernel Hacker Meets Fuchsia OS
> It only existed to keep said engineers from going to a competitor.

Who in this day, and hour tries to make an OS as a commercial product?

baybal2··on Symbian Source Code
Nokia really had to open source 15 years earlier at least
baybal2··on Finland’s Green Party endorses nuclear power
The amount of natural gas consumed by the industry is already very low.

Germany needs to stop exporting electricity.

Most of export electricity comes from gas turbine topping plant which work during high EU electricity price times.

baybal2··on Details on AMD's Quirky Chipset Solutions for AM5
Indeed, it's basically an expensive ROM chip with BIOS.
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