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baybal2on Global chip shortage may soon turn into an oversupply crisis

I am not an professional EE, but a person who professionally works on circuits from time to time.

That's absolutely not the case. The higher is the switching frequency, they higher are the switching losses in a MOSFET.

MOSFET is an electrostatic device, the charge needs to both go in, and out from the gate. The more switching, the more current goes through the gate back-and-forth.

baybal2on Global chip shortage may soon turn into an oversupply crisis

> There's nothing about electric car propulsion that requires "high end semiconductors".

Yes, the article is written by a person who has no idea what he is saying

baybal2on Documenting equipment losses during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

Because it's right on the border, and it's wide defensible flat area covered in asphalt in the middle of woods.

Under "defensible" I mean there are concrete building in the areas, which is the reactor block.

baybal2on Documenting equipment losses during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

Yes, much harder to use small detached flanking forces in a densely populated areas.

They get TikToked, countered within minutes, and then hunted down with long range weapons.

This is especially powerful against battaglione sized units, since their detachments are too small to bear the damage from few lost vehicles. If a convoy loses its sole fuel truck to ATGM, it's bye bye for them in such a wast flat open country like Ukraine.

baybal2on Update 3 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine

Important point, Russia keeps attacking the Kiyv dam by missiles, shelling, and tried to mine it at least once. If Kiyv dam is destroyed, not only the Kiyv city will suffer damage, but Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station will be right in the path of deluge, and flood zone.

Zaporizhzhia is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe.

baybal2on Turkey to implement pact on access to shipping straits due to Ukraine war

Indeed, it's the "real new Ottoman Empire" in its death throes.

Just like the Ottomans entered WW1 for the sole reason "of keeping itself relevant," with nothing to show for it except opportunistic ideas, Russia will similarly crushed, and dismembered as a country now.

baybal2on An-225 destruction image analysis

> they already were hesitant on building another AN-225 due to cost concerns.

Very astutely note. EU was trying to block Ukrainian defence industry for decades. They had a cargo plane design which beaten Airbus 400 on 33 out 34 tender points on EU defence tender, and still lost.

baybal2on Ukraine creating international territorial defense legion – Zelensky

Russia first strike on NATO will cause at most 40m dead in the most improbable scenario of NATO just standing doing nothing.

If NATO will disable the Russian nuclear C&C, they will no longer be able to launch a coordinated attack, and it will be for individual officers in bunkers to decide of fighting an unwinnable war.

baybal2on Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Feb 26, 2022

Yes, it's not US-Iraq war, but Iran Iraq war, and Putinism, and Baathism are eerely similar.

baybal2on Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Feb 26, 2022

Because it isn't. Russian main force in Belarus is stuck with no fuel, and supplies.

The rearguard units would likelly be even more soft, and incomplete, and they don't want to advance knowing it.

baybal2on Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Feb 26, 2022

If any offensive force loses 50% of its starting firepower, a normal general would've called it a defeat, and pulled back his troops.

baybal2on Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Feb 26, 2022

I would say, this is different.

If we look at history, it's closer to Iran-Iraq wars.

Saddam pulled a historical grudge out of the ass, wrapped it in bizarre, artificial semi-religious ideology, and tried to draw an image of "people's war" with propaganda.

Then he started the war with people who 1) actually have a real historical grudge, 2) are real religious warriors, and crack good at that, 3) were much better at "people warring" than him, forcing him to retreat in complete ignomy after poking the beehive, which later causes an existential crisis within his regime.

Heck, I would say Putinism is the closest thing to Baathism. Random nonsense from communism, religion, and fascism glued together, and called an "ideology," which then not even its own members can understand, or explain.

baybal2on Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Feb 26, 2022

That psychological aversion to genocidal murder cerainly doesn't spread to Russian general staff.

They are continuing bombing the Kiyv dam.

baybal2on Ukraine calls on hacker underground to defend against Russia

Not in Vladivostok, but it seems that all satellite uplinks of Russian TV channels are hacked now https://twitter.com/a_latkovskis/status/1497627592677117952 . It means that all of remote Russian regions relying of satellite feeds for local TVs are now watching documentaries on Putin's golden loo, and Ukraine war feeds.

baybal2on Defensive tactics from the modern history of urban warfare

I'm seconding this, if air cover is provided, Ukraine has enough resources to trim off Russia's south, and its access to two seas.

South Russians don't feel pretty much any affinity for Moscow. This can potentially launch a chain reaction of Russia's disintegration.

Russia's Far East will almost certainly secede for its ethnic makeup, and the only ethnic Russian stronghold in the region being uniquely anti-russian (as a state) for so many reason, the latest being harsh draft, and using Far Eastern youth as a cannon fodder for the last 8 years.

Urals, and Siberia are uniquely resource rich, and they will want the money for themselves. There was a precedent: "The Republic of Urals" was a semi-functional regional autonomy for a few months in 1991.

Kalmikia, and Tatarstan can secede as well.

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Militarily wise, Russia is at its weakest since its loss in first Chechnya war.

They just wasted at least 50% of Russia's current standing force on Ukraine, most of which is now stranded in Belarusian woods without supplies, and fuel, or destroyed in Ukraine.

Their bases near Ukraine are now standing empty.

My many contacts in Vladivostok report the same thing: military brass there "is thinking"

baybal2on Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achieved, process has begun

They are buying back rouble like crazy, they burn billions of dollars per day in foreign exchange

baybal2on Defensive tactics from the modern history of urban warfare

Glad for fuel thieves, and supplies embezzlers in Russian army now.

baybal2on Defensive tactics from the modern history of urban warfare

122mm ammo - WW2 stocks still there, 7.62x54R - same, 82mm mortars ammo - same, earliest KPV ammo is just few years older.

baybal2on Defensive tactics from the modern history of urban warfare

He is already doing it, just ran out of ammo. Russian ammo stockpiles are wast, but very old, and decrepit. Some literally date to WW2.

In first 2 days, they used pretty much everything against city outskirts.

You think Putin is afraid losing sleep? He already tried to bomb the Kiyv dam multiple times, he wants to destroy the city plainly, and simple.

https://uacrisis.org/en/the-russian-occupiers-tried-to-blow-...

If Kiyv dam is breached, it will flood the Zaporizhna nuclear plant.

baybal2on Defensive tactics from the modern history of urban warfare

> They seem to be doing a pretty good job of destroying invading force so far, but what's next? They either run out of steam defending, or they start to hit back at Russia, but then Russia could just unload a few nukes on them and be done with it.

Two options:

1) Push until Rostov, and take Black Sea access from Russia. If they manage to destroy a big portion of invading force, there will certainly be nobody to defend it, as they already "spent" a big part of Southern Military District force. They will also be under cover of their own air defence, and Russia not, as it already moved all its Buks into Ukraine.

2) A daring move to capture Volgograd. Why? Again, its would be defenders are in forests of Belarus now, doing nothing, running out of supplies. Volgograd is the most militarily significant city in South Russia.

Big portion of of Russia's low readiness units are stationed in the middle of nowhere in Urals, and West Siberia.

The elite Souther Military District (circle sign) units are already locked in Crimea, and inside Southern Ukraine

baybal2on Twitter restricted in Russia amid conflict with Ukraine

Wounded POWs are included as POW

baybal2on Military gap between Russia and Ukraine

> Scared Russian kids are fighting for crappy pay 1000's of km from their home against far more numerous people that are defending their families and their home country against an invader.

I noticed following in POW reels: there are no Russian POWs from Moscow, and central regions seemingly at all.

baybal2on Military gap between Russia and Ukraine

Ukraine MOD. Total losses in the active phase of 2 Chechnya war were 3500 troops. The rest were due to many years of insurgency.

baybal2on Portugal announces immediate granting of visas for Ukrainian refugees

I was advocating for arming Belarus rebels from Poland, and Lithuania.

If we had free Belarus by today, this war wouldn't have happened.

Without constant pressure on the capital, Ukrainian military would have easy time doing a general offensive on southern direction, or maybe even reaching Rostov, and Volgograd.

It was very appaling to see Polish government initially agreeing to sneak in weapons bought by volunteers, and then detaining it on the border.

baybal2on Military gap between Russia and Ukraine

It is big, but military budgets alone don't mean everything.

Ukraine inflicted as much casualties on Russia in 3.5 days as total Russian losses in Second Chechnya war (excluding later insurgency)

And remember, Russia did not lose much advanced military hardware back then, but it did now.

baybal2on Russian-manufactured armored vehicle vulnerability in urban combat (1997)

The safety bypass on PG 7 only requires a piece of wire to connect detonator around the safety, or removal of pyrotechnical spacer with basic tools.

baybal2on Russian-manufactured armored vehicle vulnerability in urban combat (1997)

Same was for me in Russia. Basic military education was included in high school programme. It's just keep constantly being renamed by deceptive, and cryptic names to disguise what it is "UVP," "OBZh," "Sociology," "OVO," "Sports orientation"

Amusingly, kids in Moscow, and central parts of Russia don't have it in their programme.

baybal2on Russian-manufactured armored vehicle vulnerability in urban combat (1997)

They just repeated the Grozni fiasco yesterday.

Tanks, and apcs went near highrises in Kiyv, and all predictably got ambushed, and destroyed by roof shots from regular RPGs, not even nLAWs.

The video of MTLB with strelas escaping in panic is from that time. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russ...

Kiyv is a modern megapolis with hundreds of highrises, and skyscrapers forming urban canyons.

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Russia deployed 60 BTGs to frontlines with 40 being held back behind lines.

Their losses now are 3-4 BTGs in 2 days. Some more were routed, or damaged, and may return.

At 3.5 BTGs per day, Ukraine needs to hold for 2 more weeks to make succesful Russian invasion with takeover of the whole country impossible.

Loss of half of invading force means retreat to any sane general.

My fear now is that they are mostly using conscripts now, not the professional units, and new hardware. It may be that they are using cannon fodder to expend defender resources before pushing in witch crack troops.

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Excerpt on RPG 7:

"In December 1994, the Russian Army entered the break-away Republic of Chechnya and attempted to seize the Chechen capital of Grozny from the march. After this attempt failed, the Russian Army spent two months in deliberate house-to-house fighting before finally capturing the city.(18) During the fighting, the Russian conscript force was badly mauled by the moremature, dedicated Chechen force. During the first month of the conflict, Russian forces wrote off 225 armored vehicles as nonrepairable battle losses. This represents 10.23% of the armored vehicles initially committed to the campaign.(19) The bulk of these losses were due to shoulderfired antitank weapons and antitank grenades.

The Chechen forces were armed with Soviet and Russian-produced weapons and most Chechen fighters had served in the Soviet Armed Forces. The Chechen lower-level combat group consisted of 15 to 20 personnel subdivided into three or four-man fighting cells. These cells had an antitank gunner (normally armed with the RPG-7 or RPG-18 shoulder-fired antitank rocket launcher), a machine gunner and a sniper.(20) Additional personnel served as ammunition bearers and assistant gunners. Chechen combat groups deployed these cells as anti-armor hunter-killer teams. The sniper and machine gunner would pin down the supporting infantry while the antitank gunner would engage the armored target. Teams deployed at ground level, in second and third stories, and in basements of buildings. Normally five or six hunter-killer teams simultaneously attacked a single armored vehicle. Kill shots were generally made against the top, rear and sides of vehicles. (See diagram 1) Chechens also dropped bottles filled with gasoline or jellied fuel on top of vehicles.(21) The Chechen hunter-killer teams tried to trap vehicle columns in city streets where destruction of the first and last vehicles will trap the column and allow its total destruction.

The elevation and depression angles of the Russian tank barrels were incapable of dealing with hunter-killer teams fighting from basements and second or third-story positions and the simultaneous attack from five or six teams negated the effectiveness of the tanks' machine guns. The Russians attached ZSU 23-4 and 2S6 track-mounted antiaircraft guns to armored columns to respond to these difficult-to-engage hunter-killer teams.(22)"

baybal2on Russian-manufactured armored vehicle vulnerability in urban combat (1997)

RPG 7 grenade can be modified to remove the failsafe, and attached on a long, 5 meters+ stick.

RPG 7 piezodetonator normally needs 30G-40G acceleration to arm. https://www.armedconflicts.com/attachments/11561/14_-_Pancie...

baybal2on Free Tarsnap Backups for Ukrainians

Cynism, and cowardise is a diet of tyrants.

Even 1% of Russian male population is a number bigger than Russia's combat troops number, and 10% will overwhelm the full force of the military.

If Moscow will suffer a nuclear strike by NATO to decapitate the Russian government, and prevent a coordinated first strike, these people will have no kids to care about.

This is what people's power can do: https://youtu.be/OCorwQTLZXE https://youtu.be/N7DrIUH64yI https://youtu.be/NhlMCPb4ZM8

The advancing crowd on the video been shot at by 5 RPGs, hail of sniper, and machinegun fire just few minutes prior, and they still routed the government special forces with just sticks, and rocks.