b_emery

Thanks for sharing this, it's one of the most interesting, funny and enjoyable things I've read in weeks.

Like a big, very simple clock basically.

If you read nothing else in this excellent post, read the conclusion:

> A key component of this U.S. research ecosystem was the genius of the indirect cost reimbursement system. Not only did the U.S. fund researchers in universities by paying the cost of their salaries, the U.S. gave universities money for the researchers facilities and administration. This was the secret sauce that allowed U.S. universities to build world-class labs for cutting-edge research that were the envy of the world. Scientists flocked to the U.S. causing other countries to complain of a “brain drain.”

and:

> Today, China’s leadership has spent the last three decades investing heavily to surpass the U.S. in science and technology.

In my field (a type of radar related research) in which I've worked for almost 30 yrs, papers from China have gone from sparse and poorly done imitations of western papers (~15-20 yrs ago), to innovative must reads if you want to stay on top of the field. Usually when I think of a new idea, it has already been done by some Chinese researcher. The Biden administration seemed to recognize this issue and put a lot of money toward this field. All that money and more is going away. I'm hoping to stay funded through the midterms on other projects (and that there are midterms), and hoping that the US can get back on track (the one that actually made it 'great', at least by the metrics in the post.

Similarly, I regularly see lots of HPC support job openings at universities in the US. These pay much less than similar jobs in the real world and they are not particularly well advertised -- you have to go looking for them. Could keep the op in the black until something better is found.

There are several conflated ideas in conflict here. First lets be clear and define 10x work as work on something very impactful, say a business idea, an important piece of art, or a scientific breakthrough. My model here could be Richard Feynman for example. If you 'stumble' on one of these ideas (e.g. after potentially years of routine, hard work training you to have a) the skills required to act on it and b) the knowledge to notice it) the by all means, drop the routine and let the excitement take you. Any project such as this will have such a phase. Note however that the routine 'grind' (hate that word) was required to get there, and at some point, the proof of concept will be done, and the routine will be required again to keep it going and get it fully out into the world.

I used to hate routine by my kids showed me how necessary it is. Maintenance is essential to life. Routines get the maintenance done, and free up your brain to have ideas and energy for the hard work. An observation: Where I work there is a Nobel laureate who takes walks at almost the same time every day (past my window). I would think he knows about '10x work', and also about the utility of routine.

... or by marrying into it. Or, by owning things that increase in value.

You can also see ships in the SAR data available here: https://ovl.oceandatalab.com/ (eg from the ESA satellites).

Be forewarned, there is also a ton of other data to wade through, but if you find and click all the right boxes the results can be pretty interesting (island wind wakes, ocean current visualizations, etc):

https://ovl.oceandatalab.com/?date=2024-02-13T12:00:00&times...

> partly because once you have the skill you find it's surprisingly useful.

A statement I find to be true in general.

I think the best reference for this, where I picked it up at least, is The Demon Haunted World by Carl Sagan. He investigates all sorts of things like alien encounters, goes into the history, etc. I think this is the book that made it all finally click for me, but it has been some time.

"“I’m not saying this will be the solution, but I think everybody has to work toward every possible solution,” said Dr. Szapudi, the astronomer who proposed tethering a sunshade to an asteroid."

Fully agree with this. We need solutions, long term and short term. It's time to consider and fund climate engineering.

It seems to me, having observed other's retirements, that you still need to have a purpose, and a community of people to be with. This can mean many different things but having a compelling 'why' for what your are doing is the root of motivation. Ideally the community of people are also in a similar situation and working toward the same purpose. It often takes people a while to find such a thing.

It seems that you already know this but perhaps spelling it out is helpful.

Can you speak to their data source? They're using other people's data:

"For the years leading up to 1850 we use PAGES2k Consortium reconstruction data. It is based on models where temperatures are reconstructed from proxies. Proxy analysis has higher uncertainty, and we display the smoothed set to highlight the longer-term fluctuations."

Rain model forecasts are there too, e.g.:

https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?rain,34.427,-119.70...

Windy visualizations and UI are times better than the National Weather Service (NWS). I still like the Forecast Discussion however. The money weather quote today (from the NWS) is:

"Precipitable water values are expected to peak on Sunday night at around 2.50 inches, which would be 5 standard deviations from the mean for this time of year."

It's time for the dialog to move on from 'proving climate change', to what 'we're going to do about it'.

Commentary here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKRh9U59zSk

I'm going to add Laird Hamilton towing in to Teahupoo 17 August 2000. While it has since been exceeded or replicated, at the time this was a big step above what anyone else had ever done. Most mere mortals (like myself) didn't even know a wave could do that, let alone be surfed. It was as if the entire ocean decided to shift 30 ft in the air before detonating on the reef. Here it is:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8HCF2cef74

(The wave at 2:46)

Surfer magazine ran it on the cover that month with the caption "Oh my God ..." https://northshorehawaii.wordpress.com/laird-hamilton/

The surfing world was forever changed.

Here it is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlbC8q4VkL4

Tears of joy ...

I was just reading this earlier today:

"“Fall in love with some activity, and do it! Nobody ever figures out what life is all about, and it doesn't matter. Explore the world. Nearly everything is really interesting if you go into it deeply enough. Work as hard and as much as you want to on the things you like to do the best. Don't think about what you want to be, but what you want to do. Keep up some kind of a minimum with other things so that society doesn't stop you from doing anything at all.” ― Richard P. Feynman "

Regardless of the source, these (and yours in the same vein) are some wonderful ideas.

I slightly disagree - it's the verification and integration of knowledge. The integration part - that is, reading papers and assessing them compared to all the others you've read, is quite hard, but it performs the useful function of creating a weighted average in your mind of what is real, and where the boundary is. This is part of graduate training, but it's basically what review papers do, so there is a time lag built in. AI for this would be huge, and it seems like it's not far off. And I want it to cite sources and point me to the real references, please.

Or, your 'certain uplifting current' is just activation of a neural pleasure center, that humans are pre-disposed to as the result of 10's of generations of 'selection' where individuals who didn't enjoy the ritual in some way or another were not as successful at passing on their genes, either by lack of bonding with others in the ritual group, to down right exclusion from it.

'Deep Work' and 'So good they can't ignore you' are his best works IMO, and worth reading if you're into applications of deliberate practice toward thinking types of work.

> It is therefore not a trustworthy source of information.

I do agree. It's a research project and has severe limitations. This is why I am curious what it does well. One of these things appears to be recipes. If it tells me to put avocado in my pancakes I am (still) skeptical enough not to do that.

Someone else posted this before, can't seem to find it now but I kept the text:

"Explaining well known concepts - especially if you ask it to invent analogies or mnemonics. Helping come up with names for things.

Puns, surprisingly.

Finding and fixing bugs in code.

Generating test data, and examples generally.

Telling stories.

Showing examples of formal writing that you haven't encountered before - I've used it to help me see what things like grant applications and sales manuals look like.

Games - so many fun games you can play with it."

You can imagine my confusion, checking in to see this at the top of HN.

A great idea and a nice looking product in an important space - best of luck with it.

I'm using a single display and often close all the windows except the one that I am trying to focus on. Otherwise, there are just too many distractions and 'open loops', particularly if I have to tab over to something else (for the focus task) and accidentally come across something like a new email. Militant single tasking has been my mantra. I can't say this has been super successful and am contemplating more drastic options.

“Years ago, it had occurred to me that Darwin and Nietzsche agreed on one thing: the defining characteristic of the organism is striving.” ― Paul Kalanithi, When Breath Becomes Air

Figuring out the 'why' is step one of doing anything. For me:

- Because figuring stuff out can be really fun

- "we must know; we will know" - hilbert

Given the lead up to this, is there any evidence that the Ukranians have taken these kinds of measures?

Well, there is this: https://www.hawaii.edu/news/2022/02/10/hawaii-phones-tonga-b...

Good idea.

For those of us used to degrees F, keep this in mind:

  10 C ~= 50 F

  20 C ~= 68 F

  30 C ~= 86 F

So 15 C is about 59 degrees F.