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avnfish

425 karma · joined November 6, 2014

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submissionscomments
avnfish··on An anonymous person donated 299 ETH from Tornado Cash to Redox OS
Putting the legal discussion to one side, interestingly the donor signed a UTF-8 message in one of his transactions. It reads: "Qubes address? GrapheneOS address?". Maybe implying he wants to give similar amounts to those two projects as well?

Source: https://etherscan.io/tx/0xca5bb04204f446f73a510ea02b2bd7c01e...

avnfish··on Blockchains by number of nodes/validators
Was just about to say the same. Chia is at 123k full nodes.

Source: https://dashboard.chia.net/

avnfish··on Bank of England warns the UK will fall into recession this year
UK govt is providing rebates from October onwards to all bill payers [] so I wouldn't be surprised

[] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/400-energy-bills-discount...

avnfish··on Voyager Digital files for bankruptcy
This is a personal hobby horse of mine, but where is the scrutiny regarding the various advisory firms that are now managing the restructuring / bankruptcy process?

The Consello Group in particular is interesting. It's led by an ex-Clinton staffer that left their last firm following multiple sexual assaults, and it's got Tom Brady listed as a partner, who has been trying to dump crypto on retail investors for several years now. I suppose it's fine that these characters now get a pay-day from the collapse of Voyager?

avnfish··on Ask HN: Have You Burned Out?
Yep, I've burned out. I was doing a finance/business job that involved overseas travel and frequent 80+ hour weeks. I would sometimes not wash, eat or sleep in order to deliver. I fell for the same trap that lots of insecure overachievers fall for after college: a strong desire to prove myself, inability to set boundaries and a lack of mentorship / welfare support (other than to 'lean in').

After about 3 years of this, in 2019, I was away on a work trip and decided to tag a vacation on at the end. And I just couldn't get out of bed. I couldn't even bring myself to get food sent up to my room. I had already felt pretty suicidal by that point and knew I needed help, so I used work medical to set me up with a therapist.

It's taken way longer than I anticipated, and Covid didn't help, but I'm doing better. I'm far less neurotic, I actually have hobbies, and I've managed to hold down a couple of relationships for the first time in my life. To get to this stage, I needed to seriously take my foot of the pedal: I functionally went down to a part time job (same company, different position) and I had to completely reconfigure my values.

I miss my old self sometimes - the one that would crank all-nighters for work, a job offer or a side-hussle - but I know that old person wasn't going to last very long in the modern world!

avnfish··on Musk SEC Filing
I think this is a reference to Matt's interesting PoV 'everything is securities fraud' (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-26/everyt..., https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-22/everyt..., etc.)
avnfish··on Musk SEC Filing
There's an interesting question here about what extent inflating engagement metrics such as MAUs/DAUs is fraudulent. There are lots of subjective edge-cases - do you count multiple profiles as multiple users? Does _any_ engagement qualify as activity? How aggressively do you discount your metrics based on assumed botting rates?

Twitter has overstated it's DAUs previously by 1.9m per quarter[1]. If this has a direct impact on the price, is this therefore fraud? I think we wouldn't be in this situation if the rules were clearer.

[1] https://www.theverge.com/2022/4/28/23046170/twitter-miscount...

avnfish··on Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order [video]
A lot of this feels 'right' and Dalio obviously has proven his investing chops, but I'm a little nervous about the rigor behind these arguments. Can't see any citations in this video - which, fine, most Youtube videos don't - but then the book also lacks citations(!)

Also find it strange that the video references how polarisation is about redistributing vs maintaining the status quo, when we've seen in recent years that both sides are talking just as much about redistributing away from elites, at least in rhetoric

avnfish··on Intel Announces Investment of Over €33B for R&D and Manufacturing in EU
The writing is truly on the wall for the UK...
avnfish··on Asian-Americans fight back against school discrimination
I think this is just a logical conclusion of the US's wider mentality towards higher education. It seems to me that the US considers the main purpose of a high quality college education is to produce good economic and cultural elites. Thus, the focus for these colleges is on identifying and fostering 'good citizens' - those that have the highest potential to be shaped into a well-rounded and ethical stewards of this economic and cultural capital. It follows that these citizens are to be drawn from and reflect the diversity of the US.

I suppose the thing that's odd is that - uh - education and academics feels very secondary in all of this?

For example, for college admissions in my country (the UK), you take national subject-orientated coursework and exams at age 16 and 18 on topics like History or Chemistry, write an essay about the subjects you want to study at university and then maybe have an extra exam or interview that's run by the university. And we're not even a particularly academics-driven culture. I'm sure other commenters can more succinctly describe the US college admissions process, but it really does seem to elevate the importance of (1) extra-curriculars + cultural + social action (2) high school class grade percentiles (3) standardised 'IQ-adjacent' testing and (4) motivations and outlook. What's missing from this list is identifying and developing the next top wave of scholars that might have a narrow but deep interest in an academic field.

avnfish··on Ask HN: Has remote work made you move to a new location or consider it?
I'm in my late 20s and used to live in London. Moved my things out of my flatshare and into my parents' place last year.

Since then I've been bouncing around different countries but have found I really like Porto, Portugal. My cost of living is roughly 33% of London (for example: rent, housing taxes and utilities costs in London were £1100 - I'm paying £350 total in Porto). At the same time, the quality of life here is superb.

avnfish··on Crypto Wash Trading
Breakdown of percentage per exchange is available on table 7 (pp 46).

Binance, for example, is measured at 46%. Typically the lower tier exchanges have higher levels of measured wash trading.

avnfish··on Launch HN: Iona Mind (YC S21) – App-based cognitive behavioural therapy
I've been using this app for the past few days and it's wildly good. I've compared it to MindDoc and Woebot and the exercises you offer are so much better than those two apps.

My only request is to please refrain from gating too many of the features behind expensive subscription services. There is a sustainable commercial model out there, but it's not $10 p/m to access past moodlogs (MindDoc)

avnfish··on Measuring 'Return on Investment' of Various College Degrees
The cited report includes an extract of all programmes in .xlsx format [1]. There are some surprising majors towards the bottom of the <= 10 year ROI:

* Neuroscience - 21% proportion w/ ROI

* Biology - 27% proportion w/ ROI

* Anatomical sciences - 45% proportion w/ ROI

* Biochemistry, Biophysics and Molecular Biology - 46% proportion w/ ROI

Why might this be?

[1] https://thirdway.imgix.net/Program_Level_PEP.xlsx

avnfish··on UK High School top grades reach record high – with 44.8% getting A+ or A grades
Grade inflation has always been a thing but the velocity of this will lead to unfair outcomes. For comparison, in 2019 25.2% of students achieved these grades [1].

It's believable that, in the future, candidate pools for certain masters, PhDs and employment positions will include both 2019 and 2021 high school graduates. These grades are almost always used as selection criteria. Can we really trust the process will be nuanced enough to account for the inflation, or will 2019 exam sitters be unfairly discriminated against by a surge of higher scoring students from 2020 and 2021?

[1] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/guide-to-as-and-a-level-r...

Edit: The inflation is even more extreme at the very top: 2,664 students in 2018 received at least 3 subjects at the top grade; in 2021 that figure was 12,945 (+386%) (as someone that achieved this roughly a decade ago, I can't help but feel a bit bitter) [2]

[2] https://www.ft.com/content/c35e13f4-09cd-4700-9573-91fdfd012...

avnfish··on Jeff Bezos Steps Down as Amazon’s CEO After 27 Years
Say what you want about Amazon as a company, Jeff was a world-class operator and (relatively) drama free for 27 years.

I'm still holding out for a 'big reveal' on his vision for the 2nd half of his career - hopefully more than just an egotistical space race. The world is depending on him given his outsized influence and wealth.

avnfish··on Anywhere Jobs – one in five jobs in the UK can be done remotely
Found this report pertinent to HN for several reasons:

*66% of positions classified as 'anywhere jobs' within 'Computer programming, consultancy and related' in UK

*Disproportionately affects top decile earners / degree (or above) holders

Implications:

*Expansion of the remote work economy (everything from virtual collaboration apps to remittances to at-home standing desks)

*Acceleration of offshoring / globalisation within services

*Potential UK policy changes (childcare / education, building low COL areas, immigration)

avnfish··on What I Worked On
*[nascent] EVs and autonomous driving

*[departing now] ecommerce economy

*[departing now] ESG investing

*[departing now] derisking semi-conductor supply chain

*[departing now] activist / populist retail investing (e.g. Gamestop)

But, as ever, the challenge really is the imbalance between labour and capital. All these opportunities are easy to invest in but difficult to get rich from if all you have is your labour. Appstores are saturated, ML labour market is terrible outside of a few pockets of excellence, etc.

avnfish··on Pixel 5
What is the current state of performance for 5g chipsets, from Qualcomm and more generally? Do early adopters face (comparably) higher energy consumption and poorer performance (bandwidth, signal, channel access) versus 4g and upcoming 5g chips? I've seen reports that battery life impacts are so significant that most users opt to turn 5g functionality off. Is this still the case?

N.B. Pixel 5 has a Qualcomm 765G chipset

avnfish··on Show HN: A Firefox add-on to strip Google search results of 'blacklisted' URLs
Problem with that is you'll be downloading the Google cached image, not the source imagine, so the quality is usually worse.
avnfish··on Firefox extensions to make remote work and school a little better
That's terrifying. Is there any auditing done by Mozilla to get an extension published? Or is it a free for all?
avnfish··on Surface Go 2, Surface Book 3, Surface Headphones 2 and Surface Earbuds
The base Surface Go 2 seems like an attractive option for those looking to do a bit of real computing alongside iPad-esque media consumption.
avnfish··on New iPhone SE
It's not too bad. I'm a huge proponent of the one-handed phone after using a Nexus 5 for 6.5 years. I think there are two main contributors to one-handed usability: (1) volume of the chasis, with a particular focus on width and (2) screen size, with a particular focus on screen height.

In terms of (1), the SE is in line with the Nexus 5 (and actually less wide), whilst the Pixel 4 is slightly bigger in all dimensions:

  N5: 137.9 x 69.2 x 8.6 mm (5.43 x 2.72 x 0.34 in)
  SE: 138.4 x 67.3 x 7.3 mm (5.45 x 2.65 x 0.29 in)
In terms of (2), a 4.7" screen with a 16:9 ratio is far easier to reach the top corners of than on a 5.7" that's 19:9. Yes, there is a bit less bezel on the Pixel 4 but it'll still be very difficult to reach the top one-handed with the taller screen.

Specs source:

[N5] https://www.gsmarena.com/lg_nexus_5-5705.php

[SE] https://www.gsmarena.com/apple_iphone_se_(2020)-10170.php

avnfish··on Ask HN: What is your blog and why should I read it?
Wow, this makes for fantastic reading. The ideas you're floating on job security, career capital and moats articulate something I've seen through countless hours of LinkedIn scanning and personal experience, but packaged into digestible lessons. This is empiricism leading to radical thinking.

My only comment, in the form of a sticker warning, would be that thinking about the world purely via a lens of pragmatism (e.g. 'winner takes all', 'be mission agnostic', etc.) and performance (e.g. 'maximally optimise your career capital', etc.) can cause burnout. Or it did for me at least. This is because it can simultaneously build cynicism (cyclical negative thinking patterns) and impossible personal goals (confirming experiences of failure or struggle). The heuristic isn't worth that sacrifice, even if it leads you to the "right" answer.

avnfish··on Post YC Depression
Thank you for this.

> Keep sharpening your knife / and it will blunt

Particularly resonated with me.

I was so frustrated to find grinding through skills and development courses after work left me burned out and, all things considered, a poorer thinker.

avnfish··on Sophos acquired for $3.9B
If that's the case, the challenge will be retaining the key people responsible for Sophos's 'intellectual capital' and sales relationships. It can be extremely costly to keep people after a PE acquisition in cyber - combination of removing the equity incentives (e.g. stock will eventually vest for the top people, if it hasn’t already) plus being in a very hot market where poaching talent is common plus general erosion in conditions to service the debt from the LBO.

The cynic in me thinks TB knows cybersecurity will sell at even more ludicrous multiples in the future (and they’re swimming in dry powder), so they won’t need to care too much about the underlying health of the business. The optimist thinks that TB are the masters of this niche and see synergies I don’t.

Source: I’ve done DDs in this space and our firm’s (public) stance is to encourage organic growth over doing deals

avnfish··on The Making of Apple’s Emoji
There's a study that was done on that grinning emoji - and the miscommunication it can cause. I'm glad they fixed it: https://grouplens.org/blog/investigating-the-potential-for-m...
avnfish··on With Windows 10, Microsoft Disregards User Choice and Privacy
I don't unfortunately and I haven't got around to trying it yet. If you (or anyone else on HN) finds something that works, could you post the link here?
avnfish··on With Windows 10, Microsoft Disregards User Choice and Privacy
It comes with Office365 too! I'd totally buy this for the added control over home edition, but it looks like Microsoft only sells this license in bulk to big businesses in my region. Then again...it turns out that you can upgrade to enterprise without a valid key [1] and that there are no real penalties for doing this [2]. So, shrug, I guess they don't want my money - and I'm not going to use an OS that turns me into a mineable dataset.

[1] http://www.howtogeek.com/250503/how-to-upgrade-to-windows-10...

[2] http://www.howtogeek.com/244678/you-dont-need-a-product-key-...

avnfish··on Mary Meeker's 2016 Internet Trends Report [pdf]
The concept of Messenger becoming a second homescreen for the smartphone is an interesting one. Suddenly their decision to separate Messenger from Facebook on mobile makes a lot more sense. If you think of Messenger as a different type of interface, I think the value-add are the limitations it places on providers: services have to be primarily text-based and updates will all arrive as nested within one push notification (at least on android). Plus, as the analysis mentioned, the threading, logs and identity functionality is built-in. It's almost like having a terminal window for a bunch of rigid functions that works in plain English and anyone can get to grips with.

Now I'm thinking about a parallel universe where text-based interfaces never went away...

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