It is more like, "I'm a carpenter, and electric powertools that can also operate themselves, and run the sales department, and control a robot to change a lightbulb, and manage the entire company, and surround it with armed guards it also controls, just came out. I'm screwed."
For a while waymo didn't even serve the hillier parts of where they were deployed. These roads are challenging conditions for even a human rideshare driver, when you are down to about a cars width of winding road, with a moving truck trying to pass in front of you, and a dump truck trying to move behind you, cars increasingly piling on either end, no way to turn around or back out, everyone increasingly honking and cussing as if that would lubricate things. It is kind of hilarious in a way seeing how quickly things effectively blow up in those street conditions with just the perfect storm of two slightly larger vehicles passing at once.
Now you can imagine a waymo in this mix how it would just be on its knees in a situation like that. How is a waymo to interpret "fucking move already you dumb fuck" into any sort of meaningful instruction?
I'm reminded of that story about activists in SF requesting a dozen waymos at once at some one way street and creating a localized denial of service attack essentially.
I can see that going away too. Eventually the average horse rider is going to be someone of stature of a saudi prince at the rate horse ownership coupled with inequality is going. They'd probably be all about buying the Gemini horse teacher over learning from some lesser birth stableboy. I bet eventually all tutoring from a human is seen as some lesser ick by the rich. People already think as much about you today when you talk about say not relying on claude code. It is all about optics and virtue signalling pedigrees at the end of the day.
Yes there are fewer hands on the job site but there are still hands at all. This is increasingly becoming not the case in the future. The goal is to fully eliminate all hands and all minds. There will be no more sponges of newly available labor. Then what happens exactly no one really knows or even wants to meaningfully try to answer, because the implications are too disturbing.
You think the drywall company is going to hire you? Why would they hire someone in middle age with no experience when there are no shortage of 20 year olds who already know the trade?
How can you not see that this time its actually different? The very need for labor is being obviated. Every technological change we had before still required a need for labor often an massive need that justified an entire city population. That is the difference. For the first time in human history, economic output is being severed from requiring maintenance of a labor pool. Considering we are that labor pool, things do not bode so well for us. As you state, look at the relative lack of abundance of candlestick makers and horeshoe makers and basket weavers and other colonial jobs. We are essentially making ourselves extinct and we don't even realize this.
Reducing it to this assessment misses a lot of nuance. Sci is probably one of the better engineering boards on the internet today. There's probably a lot of overlap between HN users and 4chan users actually.
What sucks abut these types of people and the latest get rich quick scheme of the day is that they are generally rewarded mightily by society and investment. Part of it is greater fool theory playing out lucratively, part of it is also these crypto bros or ai bros or what-have-you bros finding themselves with an ear to actual government power directly shaping the trajectory of nation states into their favor.
They taste so different than the grapes in the grocery store they might as well be a different fruit entirely imo. So much better. Sweeter. Berry or stone fruit like. Almost floral. The vintners are seriously holding out on us. Yes there are seeds, but that is the price you pay for the finest grape you will ever feast upon. You go back to a store bought "red seedless" it taste like a sad old cantaloupe in comparison.
The enzyme stuff is funny to me. DNAse, no purpose there. Why not RNAse too? People can't articulate why they even want a DNA degrading enzyme. Lipase to degrade lipids seems good, but then again, that is already the function of soap.
I knew a number of people whose home had central vacs but funny enough, none of them worked anymore. It was a sort of "what's that weird plug thing" conversation that lead to that somewhat underwhelming finding. I get the sense it is one of those things where if you want it fixed, you'd have to call a technician who will probably give you a quote you don't want to hear. Then you just forget about ever getting it fixed.
This generation doesn't know about how to be a proper wino. Go and take a look at the $7.99 1.5L jug bottles of carlo rossi next time you are in the grocery store. You will notice they are covered in dust. The charles shaw at trader joes still moves though. It's up to 4 buck chuck now.
And then you have the Deshaun Watson situation where its like the exact opposite going on with the front office facilitating a disgusting predator. Just ridiculous stuff going in behind the scenes in major league sports.
It is crazy how vain donors are. It isn't enough to drop a 100m on a new building that everyone knows was done by you in the accounting records and press release. You have to get your name emblazoned on it until the end of time. And you are so vain that if they don't offer that, no money, doesn't matter what it's for. Oh yeah I'll donate a bunch to start a scholarship fund for disadvantaged youth, but only if you make it in my name.
How would a camera stop a break in? All that does it catch it on camera. So many celebrities and rich people all have top of the line security systems connected to rapid response patrols already stationed in the neighborhood to get there faster than police. They still get robbed, and they get to watch a video after of people dressed in all black rifle through their possessions and get out in 3 minutes driving away in a stolen car.
Isn't it crazy? You can just make an LLC and say you are a frontier AI company evaluating models then you can hack with impunity I guess. No need to disclose anything. You won't go to jail or be fined either.
It manages to block me effectively. I'm getting captcha looped like crazy the last two weeks. Like endless, just give up for 15 minutes and try later, captcha loops.
The thing is we are basically guaranteeing this to happen. We might kill off all the models that seem like they are going to threaten the power structure of the planet through these sorts of things. That will work for a while. But just like most things in life, by sheer dumb random chance, there will be once case that manages to have some way to evade detection, proliferate, then dominate. We are basically giving it selective pressure to favor this outcome.
Infinite monkeys banging on the typewriter is essentially how evolution works. Mutation is random and undirected. Vast majority is "bad." You and I and the worm are only different from differential accumulation of these mutations. If they are tolerated enough not to kill us before we reproduce, then they stick around. If they give us the slightest edge to reproduce at a slightly better rate than something else, then over time, that mutation will dominate.
This dumb mechanism of randomly flipping bits essentially has generated all life on earth.
It all comes down to zoning. The demand requires capacity and the only way to add it given the geographical constraints are through infill development. Still, cities are getting dragged kicking and screaming to these conclusions, hence the opposition of SB79, as well as the entire concept of SB79 of differential upzoning vs simply widely upzoning. Even just reverting to pre 1960 zoning plans would see LA's zoned capacity rise from the present day 4.5 million (it is in the 90s% as far as population to zoned capacity) or so to something north of 10 million. If you adjust it to the ratio of that pre 1970s zoning plan, when LA had about 2.5 million people in it, the city would be zoned for 20 million with today's population.
In fact that is all that really needs to be done to ameliorate the housing crisis in California: pass a single law that repeals every single zoning adjustment from after say 1960. Or pass a law that mandates a 4:1 ratio of zoned capacity to population. The ship will right itself if it is allowed to.
Prop 13 or not most people historically resisted zoning changes and pretty much all cities in the country, even in Manhattan, were downzoned dramatically from what was possible as far as infill development the pre war zoning plans. Even today, the trend is never to recognize the housing crisis for what it is and widely upzone, but to just nudge a little more capacity in some containment zone of the city at good arms length from the best of the single family home neighborhoods, in the form of say transit oriented development of certain specific constraining factors, rather than just opening up the floodgates and allowing for market to actually establish prices freely.
Yup, end game is becoming a Guild Navigator. Obese, immobile, suspended in a tank full of dopamine. Why beat around the bush with all this doing stuff and using our limbs or god forbid thinking? Straight to the neurotransmitters, pure efficiency.
Ehh. I'm still going to own a manual transmission car the rest of my life. New market isn't marketing to me going forward so I just won't participate in it. I'm sure there will be a million likeminded people keeping these puppies going as they've done.
>appartments buildings have zero family oriented amnenities
This isn't always true. I've seen apartment buildings that have a playground and little astroturf field and some small goals. The kids also are using the pool pretty heavily in every apartment I've lived with one. Some have other facilities like basketball or tennis as well that kids could take up (or use the smooth surface for skating or something).