HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

aquarium87

50 karma · joined November 30, 2022

submissionscomments
aquarium87··on Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says
No it's not. Not at all. Everything risk is increasing exponentially. BSL-4 labs are expanding 1 per year, or around 2% extra risk. CRISPr and CRISPr cas9 are only 10 and 20 years old. How much added risk is that per year? 10,000%?

Then to send money to actively seek out bat viruses in the place thought to harbor the worse or most diverse viruses?

And to do all that in partnership with a hostile enemy who most certainly isn't going to tell you all the extras they have planned above and beyond the controllable.

No, I think you are dead wrong. The default assumption from now on is lab leak unless proven otherwise, because that's the risky world we live in. Period. No getting around it. And the risk gets higher every year.

There are literally tens of thousands of BSL-3 labs in the world. They aren't sitting empty doing nothing. They are busy trying to "save us".

aquarium87··on Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says
Naw. Nobody wins from increased instability. Seems to me the playbook is obvious. You see in politics all the time. Everyone knows the truth but pretends otherwise until the proper time when things have settled down and the truth can be allowed to be free.

We are coming to the time when people are forgetting what lockdown were like and just want to move on with live. The near future is when the lab leak hypothesis can become the de facto default of scientists and intel agencies.

Same applies for the vaccines. 4 months of study for top level review of vaccines as a metastudy. 6 months of journal review for meta analysis of existing papers. 6 months of journal review, 4 months to parse the data.

Already, before the narrative can change, 20 months need to pass since the end of the dataset. If you want relevent data on covid and vaccine outcomes, then it's Jan 2021-Dec 2022.

First two years of preliminary data won't be finalized and combined and analyzed to a sufficient degree to potentially flip the narrative until about September 2024.

Want real data on covid and the vaccine? 5 years worth? You can have it in September 2027.

Why bother having the CIA release shit when you can just have the scientists do your dirty for you and time slide relevent information into 2024+?

Its all coming out. Just a matter of timing.

aquarium87··on Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says
It's simpler. Tools x labs x pathogens and funding x risk of escape = risk.

ALL categories are going up. Ergo, risk is going up exponentially.

No need for conspiracies. Just a proper parsing of the words "lab leak"

aquarium87··on Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says
Very astute! The First! Lab escape happened in 2021. CRISPr was invented in 2000-2005ish. CRISPr cas9 around 2014.

BSL-4 labs have gone from 40 to 60ish in the last 25 years with another coming online almost every year.

BSL-3 labs are virtually uncountable and are in the 13000ish range in the USA alone (sorry, can't Remeber source)

Put it all together, and only an idiot STARTS with natural origin.

Also, there will be many many more.

aquarium87··on Canada high schooler suspended for saying only 2genders arrested for trespassing
Not sure where you have been. Transgender people are the most oppressed people on the planet. Even their body rejects them.

If able bodied, cis hetero conformists don't understand this, they are bigots.

If able bodied, cis hetero conformists don't accept live saving affirmative language, they are hateful and want transgender people to die.

It's all pretty clear isn't it? :)

aquarium87··on Canada high schooler suspended for saying only 2genders arrested for trespassing
Yes. Absolutely. Why not get it over with now and debate it now?

That is the end result of where society is going, but "the powers that be" don't want it to happen to fast. Like right now. Or the plan might get ruined. Canada is ripe picking for denialism laws and hate speech laws as Canadians don't actually have a right to free speech. But only if they can be brought in slowly and quietly.

So yeah, throw the book at the kid. I'm sure he wants it, he picked this fight. Remember, what's the best defense? Offense. This kid is a hero. He's not playing D. He's on the offensive, and Canadians should take note.

aquarium87··on Canada high schooler suspended for saying only 2genders arrested for trespassing
Yes, but he outted himself as a hateful bigot. There is no more despicable person in the world. What to do?
aquarium87··on Google's news-blocking test in Canada a 'terrible mistake', says PM Trudeau
Not sure what's being squabbles over here, but certainly whoever wrote this story doesn't deserve to get paid. (for failing to explain anything sufficiently)

The definition of news has changed. Big organizations get big stories so wrong so often that the "press" should probably die, and independent content creators have their day in the sun.

Sure, there will be information, and some of it will be wrong. But that's no different than now.

The scam is pretending the press isn't fully captured and hates certain people. The scam is forcing people to pay the press to hate on them.

aquarium87··on Argonne: Lithium-Air battery 1200 wh/kg, 1000 cycles
Except tesla is expecting and has been achieving 10% density increases in the last few years. Do this for 8 years, and you get double, same as the new battery tech that's gonna take 10 years.

1st gen: 276 Wh/kg (2022)

2nd gen: 305 Wh/kg (2023)

3rd gen: 333 Wh/kg (2024)[1]

Here is a cool article on all the tech that is scheduled or went into these new 4680 batteries and getting the energy density up well past 300.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/22/everything-you-need-to-...

[1]https://insideevs.com/news/598656/tesla-4680-battery-cell-sp...

aquarium87··on Ex150 diet macros: 2,294kcal, 88% fat, down 46lbs
Wow. I've gone what I thought was hardcore on carnivore. Beef is king, and I would ask for scrap fat every time I'm at the butcher or grocer. Would render down fat, and save the "cracklin" for burger toppings.

One of my favorites, even if it sounds gross, is to sous vide ground beef at around 138f for several hours. This saves all juices. I then put the entire brick with juices in the Vitamix, plus salt and some bbq sauce. Not to blend it, but to break it out of its block form. Turn it into a bowl of whole use beef.

Another favorite of mine to get fat in, is homeground burgers. Get a (fatty) roast on sale, and then lots of scrap Fat. Boil all for one minute to kill surface bacteria. Then make medium rare burgers. By cooking to 135 rather than 165, can retain lots more fat and juices.

Doesn't get anywhere near 88% fat.... But I'm sure I hit 40% with some of these techniques.

aquarium87··on Biden Signs Executive Order Advancing Racial Equity for Government A.I
So AI must now be fed racial information, and make race equalization it's prime objective.

AI is evil, and the enemy of the people before its even here.

As an aside, I'm going to start checking diversity boxes on government paperwork so AIs put me at the top of the queue, and there's nothing beaurocrats can do.

A new race war is here, and nobody will identify as white anymore. It leads to active racial discrimination in ALL areas of government.

The real question is what race should I identify as? What race is the most disadvantaged?

I guess I need a list of races recognized by government and AI first, then to choose off that list.

aquarium87··on Pentagon warns poppy seeds might cause troops to fail drug tests
Very cool. Working with a known unwashed product is much safer.
aquarium87··on [dead]
Interesting. I said covid overreach would be the the death of climate science as well. But not before the tools used during covid are brought to bear once again but on a far larger scale.

Only the covid vaccine failure had the power to stop the ever reaching Tenacles of climate action.

What do you think? Does your skepticism extend further after living through a parallel non-crisis treated as a crisis?

aquarium87··on The Cure for Hiccup Exists, and It's Free
If you can hold your breath and punch yourself in the balls, you can forget about the hiccups and they even seem to go away.
aquarium87··on Pentagon warns poppy seeds might cause troops to fail drug tests
Kids use this trick to get high. Unfortunately if they are used to washed batches of poppies seeds and then get a poorly washed batch, it is often enough to kill them when consuming their normal quantity.

The LD50 is only about 4x the recreational dose of heroin. So this is a dangerous class of drugs to play around with if the intent is to get high

aquarium87··on A student loan in 1977. Decades later, he’s barely cracked the principal
Dumb. The guy got an education for $5250 dollars and didn't make anything of his career.

Also, it's considered good form to make the minimum payment on student debt as most all other debt is more expensive. Hell, you can put money in the stock market to outperform a student loan rate.

And yet these new age people think having student loans is a bad thing.

aquarium87··on Top climate scientists sceptical that nations will rein in global warming (2021)
But economics Trump everything you just said in terms of living standards.

And the issues she is talking about won't affect her children. Sea level rise is currently a foot per century. Rainfall patterns are not relevant. The rain falls on the Amazon or ocean side of the mountains, and can be collected before it runs to the sea. Wealth allows for the collection and distribution of water. Industrialization allows for water intensive agriculture to be sacrificed.

Everything she is talking about is esoteric hippy stuff that has nothing to do with reality and everything to do with virtue signalling equity and making sure no single person is left behind.

Even if it's all real, and pans out with exponential feedback loops, it's not happening until her kid is on its deathbed. And it won't matter. Water is limitless, just requires energy and tech. Columbia is not a large flat plain that will be consumed by sea level rise. The mountains go through the middle of the country. It's highly sloped, and not susceptible to land loss due to sea level rise.

aquarium87··on Users can run ChatGPT-like AI with data 'pods', says Tim Berners-Lee
Very cool. Can I integrate this with Android yet? As the default assistant?
aquarium87··on I Watched Elon Musk Kill Twitter’s Culture from the Inside
These transgressions didn't end in irreversible mutilation, increased racism, or astronomical depression and suicide rate increases.

These new age woke transgressions have far far far worse outcomes than the pledge of allegiance, which it could be argued has a positive outcome.

Not apples to apples. You controlled your child's upbringing back then. Now parents can't. Kids can self affirm and get permenantly destructive puberty blockers and live double lives and it can be illegal to inform parents.

aquarium87··on The US plan to become the world’s cleantech superpower
(fact checks appreciated. This is back of the napkin math that I've only spent an hour researching and putting together, and some of the terminology I may have wrong, like production VS capacity etc, leading to wrong conclusions.)

Neat. A pretty balanced and factual article. A few extra facts: hydro and biomass are stagnant, wind has doubled overall production from 2014-2021, and solar about 6x. [2] wind from 180 to 380TWH's, solar from 28TWH to 163TWH.

The issue then becomes realistic expectations. The world uses the equivalent of 180,000TWH [1] of electric energy per year, which is 20.5TW per hour. Overall, if vehicles and gas powered equipment were electrified, my understanding is the world would need about 3x as much electricity, or about 65TW's per hour constant production. I can't find the source for this number ATM.

I'm going to go ahead and use the number 500,000TWH of electricity to electrify the world.

Solar seems to be the key, and in the US in Oct 2021 there were 130 GWH of capacity[2]. There were 115TWH of electricity produced[3]. For which I have calculated an average efficiency of 11.5% (130gwh x 365 x 24 = potential for 1007TWH of production. 115/1007 = 11.5%)

If the world could average 11.5% efficiency putting panels close to usage and had adequate storage capacity, the world would require 565 terawatts per hour of capacity for decarbonization.

Bringing it all back together, this article shows a rough investment correlation of about $1 Billion per GW of renewable capacity. (110gw capacity added in 2031 for 115 billion usd. The earlier the timeframe, the more expensive per GW)

I understand this is back of the napkin, but the idea that the world requires 565,000gw of capacity at a Billion dollars per unit is terrifying.

That's 565 Trillion to decarbonize, and that doesn't include increasing total world energy usage year over year.

US electrical usage seems to be stagnant for about 15 years now, probably because of the increases in costs associated with the decarbonization of the grid.

The future is not bright. The future is broke and short energy.

[1]https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption

[2]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_the_Unit...

[3] https://www.statista.com/statistics/183447/us-energy-generat...

aquarium87··on I Watched Elon Musk Kill Twitter’s Culture from the Inside
I like your definition of woke. It should probably elaborate that being woke is generally something that is virtuous yet harmful. A self defeating, short term position.

Equity = wealth destruction and no equity.

Transgender = mutilation and social group becomes perverts obsessed with sex. Doesn't generally solve problems of self esteem or bodily sex mismatch.

Diversity = institutionalized racism and quotas. Self defeating as everyone automatically becomes a racist, looking only at skin color, and everyone else suspiciously looks at minorities and wonders if they have any skills, or are just pawns to check boxes in HR.

aquarium87··on Users can run ChatGPT-like AI with data 'pods', says Tim Berners-Lee
I would settle for even speech to text that stays local. Agree, an AI assistant that doesn't enrich google or whoever scoops my queries would be even better.
aquarium87··on Top climate scientists sceptical that nations will rein in global warming (2021)
I understand why nature would ask these scientists these questions, but alas, it's a pretty vapid exercise that only outs the IPCC as a fully captured ideological organization rather than a scientific establishment. Take the first profiled person. She lived through civil war and drug cartels going to war with government. Columbia has a very very bright future as manufacturing from China redistributes to India, Vietnam, Mexico, and Columbia. Yet, in the midst of a truly breathtaking comeback for her country, where everyone wins, she is worried about inequality, rainfall, and sea level rise of 3mm/year. So much so that she has decided not to have children.

"As a leading climate scientist, Paola Arias doesn’t need to look far to see the world changing. Shifting rain patterns threaten water supplies in her home city of Medellín, Colombia, while rising sea levels endanger the country’s coastline. She isn’t confident that international leaders will slow global warming or that her own government can handle the expected fallout, such as mass migrations and civil unrest over rising inequality. With such an uncertain future, she thought hard several years ago about whether to have children.

“My answer was no,” says Arias, a researcher at the University of Antioquia in Medellín"

aquarium87··on Influential local US banks fight back against Republicans’ ESG attacks
So no one wants to put money in ESG. It auto-happens. And you've astutely noticed people are actively taking their money out of it.

How is this not unethical? An investment banker is making low return investments that a high percentage of people are actively rejecting, going out of their way to call or email and override their investment bankers on this one issue?

I'm not worried about the index fund investor or sp500 investor. It's the public pensions and people whose paychecks are autodeducted and invested that are the ones getting screwed.

As for illegal, the activists say no. Traditional investors and attorneys say perhaps yes. Here is one states AG stating ESG in investments is illegal, and suing.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/esg-may-be-an-antitrust-violati...

aquarium87··on Influential local US banks fight back against Republicans’ ESG attacks
I think the idea is that when using ESG, the return WILL be less than it otherwise would be. Simply by having reduced options. Then because malfeasance is covered up with platitudes. No longer do companies have to try to be profitable, they just have to check ESG boxes. Then money is auto-funneled from workers to bypass taxes and is forced to be invested in these future junk funds.

The idea that you can exclude companies from investment consideration and claim to represent investors is so scammy, its technically illegal in my opinion. Legally, they are supposed to chase profits. That's the only legal goal.

If you accept the basic premise that a shrunken pool of investment opportunities is exactly equal to lost opportunity and profit, then ESG is illegal and has to go.

I don't see the big deal. People can yell and scream all they want, ESG is an illegal and self defeating mechanism that screws everyone.

aquarium87··on Past SARS-CoV-2 infection protection against re-infection: a review and analysis
“The problem of saying ‘I’m gonna get infected to get immunity’ is you might be one of those people that end up in the hospital or die,” Murray said. “Why would you take the risk when you can get immunity through vaccination quite safely?”

What kind of sociopathic idiot says something like this in Feb 2023? Does he not know that virtually everyone has already been exposed to covid? Who is the target audience? The 2% of people who are unvaccinated that also havent got a confirmed covid diagnosis yet? The same 2% that were vindicated and just learned natural immunity is as great and almost certainly much better than the vaccines? Lol. The medical and media communities are in full irrelevant self destruct mode.

aquarium87··on Elon Musk reportedly forced Twitter algorithm to boost his tweets
I think he might be onto a bot problem. Sounds pretty reasonable.
aquarium87··on Primeval Foods Holding Tasting Events for Cultivated Lion, Tiger and Zebra Meat
https://archive.is/s7HYF

Well, looks like it probably is real tiger flesh.... Grown in a lab

aquarium87··on King Charles' coronation oil 'concocted for 8 months on housing estate
"He was even careful to ensure he replaced any animal-derived products on the ancient shopping list with synthetic versions."

Soo..... He goes to great lengths and takes 8 months to source the ORIGINAL ingredients..... Just to new age vegan it with synthetic chemicals.

Why not just buy some stuff off the shelf? Seems like a bit of a concocted process to end up with a sham product.

aquarium87··on Primeval Foods Holding Tasting Events for Cultivated Lion, Tiger and Zebra Meat
Dumpster fire propoganda. As a meat eater, I'm offended they think they can invent a new word "cultivated meat", then completely ignore wtf cultivated meat is.

I want it to be lab grown tiger cells. Pretty sure it's just hyped up veggie burgers.

They are trying to trick meat eaters into going vegan! The good news, they will go broke.

← PreviousPage 2 of 5Next →