Top climate scientists sceptical that nations will rein in global warming (2021)
nature.com
nature.com
The overal approach over the last 20 years or more reminds me of Yes, Prime Minister's protocol[1] for dealing with international incidents:
1. Nothing is going to happen.
2. Something may be going to happen, but we don't need to do anything about it.
3. Maybe we should do something, but there's nothing we can do.
4. Maybe there was something we could have done, but [shrugs] it's too late now.
:-/
[1] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x5t4iz6 at 18:13.
"As a leading climate scientist, Paola Arias doesn’t need to look far to see the world changing. Shifting rain patterns threaten water supplies in her home city of Medellín, Colombia, while rising sea levels endanger the country’s coastline. She isn’t confident that international leaders will slow global warming or that her own government can handle the expected fallout, such as mass migrations and civil unrest over rising inequality. With such an uncertain future, she thought hard several years ago about whether to have children.
“My answer was no,” says Arias, a researcher at the University of Antioquia in Medellín"
But that's an economic situation, nothing to do with the climate. If anything, the "improved" economic situation will drive climate change and accellerate the changes. The decision not to have children here is a rational one not based on improved economic conditions, but the potential for deteriorating and potentially catastrophic living conditions.
And the issues she is talking about won't affect her children. Sea level rise is currently a foot per century. Rainfall patterns are not relevant. The rain falls on the Amazon or ocean side of the mountains, and can be collected before it runs to the sea. Wealth allows for the collection and distribution of water. Industrialization allows for water intensive agriculture to be sacrificed.
Everything she is talking about is esoteric hippy stuff that has nothing to do with reality and everything to do with virtue signalling equity and making sure no single person is left behind.
Even if it's all real, and pans out with exponential feedback loops, it's not happening until her kid is on its deathbed. And it won't matter. Water is limitless, just requires energy and tech. Columbia is not a large flat plain that will be consumed by sea level rise. The mountains go through the middle of the country. It's highly sloped, and not susceptible to land loss due to sea level rise.