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anilshanbhag

1,563 karma · joined November 10, 2011

http://github.com/anilshanbhag
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anilshanbhag··on Tesla Bonds Are in Free Fall
Bloomberg has an entire page to track Model 3 production. The production ramp is there: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

Credit rating agencies have defined rules and many institutions have policies on what mix of bonds they have. Investors do over-react to short term news.

anilshanbhag··on Illinois pension benefits have grown six times faster than state revenues
The public pension system is flawed. Unions hold significant political sway and no politican will want to go against them. There was a multi-year standoff between the governor of Illinois and the house on this. The governor of Illinois tried to balance the budget and adjust compensation to market rates; he failed. Here is an article on it: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/27/us/illinois-budget-stalem....
anilshanbhag··on Trump Hits China With Stiff Trade Measures
This argument goes both ways. If you look at the trade equation (https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peo...) - US imports 3 times it exports. So, for every $ of tariff that China imposes, US can impose roughly 3 times the pain. While it would increase prices in the US, it will just kill the Chinese economy which already has overcapacity and > 20% of its exports are to the US.

There are many Chinese practices that are unfair. US companies cannot enter China alone, they need to do 50-50 joint ventures when they setup shop in China. They also need to transfer technology and there is little IP protection. Finally, China imposes tariffs on many manufactured goods while the US doesn't.

anilshanbhag··on Ask HN: Did Facebook really do something wrong?
I sort of agree. However note that when you pull data about friends, you don't get information about friends who have a higher privacy setting. Also, you can't get personal information about these friends through the api, however you could just web scrape it for many.
anilshanbhag··on Launch HN: Hexel (YC W18) – Create a cryptocurrency for your community
There are two parts:

- Is the idea interesting ? Yes possibly. The idea of making it easy to create tokens is interesting. I can see twitch streamers giving away tokens to their subscribers / viewers.

- Does it need to be on blockchain ? For all the use cases described, the answer according to me is no. It is easier to simply have a frontend through which users can interact vs maintaining a wallet, installing metamask, etc. This is going in the direction opposite of the Dropbox example - making things harder for users.

anilshanbhag··on Launch HN: Hexel (YC W18) – Create a cryptocurrency for your community
Everything you want to do can be done on a simple database. You can mint tokens / share it / explore other tokens / message people / view feed. It isn't clear why you want to forcibly put this on Ethereum blockchain and pay a fee to do every transfer (The transaction charge currently is ~ USD 0.5-1 per transaction)
anilshanbhag··on Stock trade app Robinhood raising at $5B+, up 4X in a year
This is really speculation. There is no reliable source to confirm this. I have used Robinhood for over 6 months now and never observed the trade price deviate from what is listed on Schwab and IB.

Also, for most people who trade 100-1000 shares it doesn't really matter.

anilshanbhag··on Trump Issues Order to Block Broadcom’s Takeover of Qualcomm
CIFUS advises the President on deals by foreign companies which are threats to national security. They strongly feel this deal falls in this bucket.
anilshanbhag··on Trump Issues Order to Block Broadcom’s Takeover of Qualcomm
If you look at CNBC video on the deal (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/12/us-tells-broadcom-it-confirm...) which talks about the Government concerns there are two parts:

1) Its a foreign company takeover. This will not hold as Broadcom is domiciling in the US soon.

2) Broadcom has publicly stated that it intends to do private equity style management. They are going to add $100B in debt - which might make them cut R&D. For its size, Qualcomm spends significantly more on R&D and has been a pioneer of many technologies. CFIUS contends this is a natural security concern. Any reduction in US R&D spend on key technologies like 5G will lead to China filling the void.

anilshanbhag··on Ask HN: What's the Hacker News for different industries?
Seeking Alpha (https://seekingalpha.com) is a popular place for investing / trading crowds.
anilshanbhag··on Show HN: My embarrassing personal website from the 90s
One thing I noticed: Xoom.com referenced in the webpage is now a large money transfer company
anilshanbhag··on Bill Ackman Surrenders in His Five-Year War Against Herbalife
That was a while ago. Today he said he closed all positions in Herbalife (stock and options).
anilshanbhag··on Airlines inching closer to dynamic pricing
This looks like pure speculation and borderline false.

What is happening: Many airlines are moving toward a better pricing system. If you look at United's recent quarterly earnings call, they talk about how their previous system (age old system) constantly under-forecasts demand leading to lower pricing for tickets. Their new system is said to do a better job leading to better prices realized.

There is no way to dynamically price as shown in the article as a large fraction of the tickets are purchased through third party sites. Except maybe Southwest (which requires people to book through their site), I don't know how any airline can accomplish this. Also, if you show a higher than normal price to a repeating customer - they he will either switch to browsing in incognito or take his business else where.

anilshanbhag··on Performance Benchmark 2018 – MongoDB, PostgreSQL, OrientDB, Neo4j and ArangoDB
I don't think these results are comparable. Query runtimes are highly dependent on how much memory they can use. Postgres for example isn't configured making it use less memory than other systems. Hence its performance is likely inferior and could be improved significantly by increasing the buffer size.
anilshanbhag··on Facebook lost around 2.8M U.S. users under 25 last year
Well this isn't as bad as it seems. I'm 24; almost my entire friend circle has gone from using Facebook to using Instagram for posting photos and WhatsApp for messaging. Still within Facebook ecosystem.
anilshanbhag··on Regular Expression Matching Can Be Simple and Fast (2007)
There are modules that implement the Thompson's algorithm For Python: https://github.com/xysun/regex
anilshanbhag··on Facebook is banning all ads promoting cryptocurrencies
I did the same. For people who haven't seen the ads, here are 3 I seen so far: https://imgur.com/a/tsOOe
anilshanbhag··on Facebook is banning all ads promoting cryptocurrencies
1. It shows they are intentionally targeting people in the US. CPC rates for US consumers is much higher than for eastern europe / russia. 2. It is just shady. Investors in these schemes have no protections / legal recourse as these entities are outside the US. Not to single out Russian/Eastern European, investing money via ICO outside US is like asking to be robbed.
anilshanbhag··on Apple rejects Puffin Browser on iOS
The bigger problem with iOS is that its a complete lock-in. Even if users want the app, Puffin is unable to distribute its app to users since Apple doesn't approve it.

This doesn't happen on Android, if you don't like Play Store, you can still distribute apk and ask the user to download & install.

People may spin it any way they want but this is corporate greed !

anilshanbhag··on HomePod arrives February 9, available to order this Friday
I was comparing to Echo $99 or Google Home $129. Home mini's speaker is pretty awesome !
anilshanbhag··on HomePod arrives February 9, available to order this Friday
HomePod costs $349. I know Apple products are pricy but 3.5x is insane. I have a (Google) Home mini and its fun - it isn't really that useful but ok for $30-50. While history has proof that Apple is able to extract higher prices, I feel this product will fail at this price point.
anilshanbhag··on Netflix is now worth more than $100B
Exactly, Amazon also has lot of assets. They have logistics networks across multiple countries, warehouses, data centers, etc. May not be commensurate to their market cap but it does give them a solid moat.
anilshanbhag··on Netflix is now worth more than $100B
The entire stock market feels like its in a bubble. Netflix stock gained more than 25% in the past one month. Their free cash flow (FCF) has been negative every single quarter and will be for many quarters to come. Stocks trade based on discounted cash flow(DCF). Netflix however produces no material return for investors and still majority of the analysts keep putting higher and higher price targets, its like they are collectively pushing a hidden agenda. It's as if there is this new way of valuing companies that is not based on DCF.
anilshanbhag··on Inside Amazon Go
The system will not work in many places. It is based on honor code i.e, no body will take an item without scanning it. Most supermarkets have razor thin margins - add theft and they will not be able to make money.
anilshanbhag··on Apple plans new U.S. campus, to pay $38B in foreign cash taxes
=> But if a US company earns income in Germany it pays both German taxes and US taxes.

This is not portrayed accurately. If you pay German taxes, you claim exception for that amount. So if you pay more taxes than the rate in US, you owe no tax for that income in US. If the rate is less in the country than in US, you pay the difference.

anilshanbhag··on Google Pay
Across their diverse payment solution names, they actually have all the tech to build a Stripe competitor. Looks like they finally got their act together (hopefully!).
anilshanbhag··on Ask HN: What was the best CS paper you read in 2017?
Chord: http://nms.lcs.mit.edu/papers/chord.pdf

I think this paper amazing because it solves a complex problem with a simple solution. How do you create a hash function that adjust to the varying number of underlying buckets ? Solution: hash to a circle.

anilshanbhag··on 'Picasso', the Painter on GDAX?
I don't get the point of this article. The bot he says is buying 95 BCH at 8500. I don't see how this is profitable as the the price quickly falls and the bot lost a lot of money. This is just a bunch of bots trying to catch trends. You can see this on the stock market as well. See stocks like LFIN or LTEA.
anilshanbhag··on MoviePass is changing the value of the movie theater experience
That is not true. Star wars is an exception and the cut percentage increased by 1%. The real reason is the dropping viewership. Number of tickets sold peaked in 2012. Beyond that the number of movie tickets sold dropped, however number of locations is up and salaries have gone up. To compensate for it, movie ticket prices need to go up.
anilshanbhag··on Apple iMac Pro goes on sale December 14th
I don't portability is the main point. If you work on a desktop all the time and want a Mac, you get an iMac. Price is high but its a small cost for a developer who will work on it for multiple years.

Re: Price - when I saw the Iphone priced at $1k, I thought it was very expensive but they still sold like hot cakes.

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