5,015 karma · joined August 13, 2021
And graphs like the one comparing wind turbine output to petrol car consumption are inherently deceiving. Two values are put side by side with the same units and then talk about directly as if they are comparable. But they simply are not. A kWh of chemical energy and a kWh of electricity have as much in common as a US dollar and a Jamaican dollar.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shouting_fire_in_a_crowded_the...
Look at “3 - Cars” on page 29. He says the typical car uses 40 kWh/day. 40 kWh of what? Chemical energy in the gasoline.
The go to page 33 where he looks at how much energy onshore wind could produce per days in the UK. His number is 20 kWh/d. 20 kWh of what? electricity
He then compares those two numbers directly and uses that comparison as the basis of his arguments: “Britain’s onshore wind energy resource may be “huge,” but it’s evi- dently not as huge as our huge consumption.”
This is simply incorrect. A combustion engine converts less than half of the chemical energy in the gasoline into mechanical work that can move the car. The electric model converts >90% of it. So we don’t have to replace 40 kWh/day, we have to replace less than half of that since the electric process is more efficient.
This same issues, the primary energy fallacy, underpins large parts of the book.
It is also a product of its time in terms of wind/solar vs nuclear. His forecasts of the impact of solar and wind is based on prices and performance from 2008. Prices have come down an order of magnitude since then, and performance and lifespan have increased drastically.
To say nothing of the tradeoffs that come with an older vehicle (safety and pollution).
This is a direction all manufacturers are going into, so there is little actual choice. And buying used is not a real solution; where do tomorrow’s used vehicles come from?
> Even Flameville 3 in France was significantly cheaper than Hinkley point C
Per wikipedia: initial cost estimate €3.3 billion, cost in 2020 (6 years before it was done) €19.1 billion, so 5.8x the budget. Supposed to enter operation in 2012, entered in 2026 "only" 14 years late.
These are terrible results.
That EPR2 series are "expected" to cost less says absolutely nothing. Flameville 3 was expected to cost 83% less too, and I except that if they swindle people for the money to build it we'll see it'll be just as much of an overrun.
The nuclear industry seem absolutely incapable of sticking to a timeline or budget. And any one of these failures should have been disqualifying. But they get to do it over and over again.
The AP1000 reactors at Vogtle were explicitly marked for the modular construction as a key selling feature, which would reduce time and cost. It came out 20B over budget and 7 years late.
I mean that’s objectively wrong for any model using RLHF.
I’m getting 97%.
The max plan will provide ~1,100 USD of GLM-5.3 or ~260 USD of GLM-5.3-flash per month for 168 USD. I can personally attest to these numbers through omp (~97% cache hit rate).
Unless you are able to highly parallelize (your work, you won't be able to hit your hourly or weekly quota using the flash model simply because it's so slow.
They give you ~3x more flash tokens, which maybe comes out to ~2x more actual work after accounting for the extra thinking it does to achieve the same result. The mental model, for not getting angry, is 5.3 is fast mode by default, and you can disable fast mode for 2x the work output at 1/3-1/10th the speed.
They're serving me 5.3 at ~40 tok/s and 5.3-flash at 30 tok/s (according to omp).
The only real difference between and iPad and a MacBook at this point is formfactor. There is no reason for not treating them both like the computers they are.
0.007 -> 0.003
0.22 -> 0.15
0.66 -> 0.60
Each one is now cheaper.