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_aavaa_

5,015 karma · joined August 13, 2021

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_aavaa_··on Vermont replacing power plants with home batteries
How much would I get paid?
_aavaa_··on Sustainable energy without the hot air (2008)
I disagree. The framing of focusing on primary energy and then sprinkling efficiency afterwards has two issues: 1) it pulls focus away from the thing we want (the end result) and 2) it makes it much easier to misunderstand (or to misrepresent) because the efficiency differences can be omitted.

And graphs like the one comparing wind turbine output to petrol car consumption are inherently deceiving. Two values are put side by side with the same units and then talk about directly as if they are comparable. But they simply are not. A kWh of chemical energy and a kWh of electricity have as much in common as a US dollar and a Jamaican dollar.

_aavaa_··on AI Companies Are Not (Necessarily) Liable for Unintended AI Cyberattacks
I wonder if people would use that phrase as much if they understood where it comes from.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shouting_fire_in_a_crowded_the...

_aavaa_··on Sustainable energy without the hot air (2008)
I’m not saying he was unaware of heat pumps, I’m saying he’s comparing apples to oranges simply because they use the same units.

Look at “3 - Cars” on page 29. He says the typical car uses 40 kWh/day. 40 kWh of what? Chemical energy in the gasoline.

The go to page 33 where he looks at how much energy onshore wind could produce per days in the UK. His number is 20 kWh/d. 20 kWh of what? electricity

He then compares those two numbers directly and uses that comparison as the basis of his arguments: “Britain’s onshore wind energy resource may be “huge,” but it’s evi- dently not as huge as our huge consumption.”

This is simply incorrect. A combustion engine converts less than half of the chemical energy in the gasoline into mechanical work that can move the car. The electric model converts >90% of it. So we don’t have to replace 40 kWh/day, we have to replace less than half of that since the electric process is more efficient.

This same issues, the primary energy fallacy, underpins large parts of the book.

_aavaa_··on Sustainable energy without the hot air (2008)
The books is good(ish) for it's time, but some of its analysis and forecasts are fundamentally flawed since it falls for the primary energy fallacy by comparing the chemical potential energy (in J) directly to electrical energy (also in J). The two are fundamentally different things and called be compared 1:1. E.g. To heat up your home with natural gas you need ~1J of chemical energy to get 1J of heat into the home, but with a electric heat pump you only need 1/6 J to get 1J of heat.

It is also a product of its time in terms of wind/solar vs nuclear. His forecasts of the impact of solar and wind is based on prices and performance from 2008. Prices have come down an order of magnitude since then, and performance and lifespan have increased drastically.

_aavaa_··on Pacing the Frontier is not the actual goal for AI labs
Like front-running Millennium prize solutions?
_aavaa_··on Show HN: Livenerf – a benchmark for whether Opus 5.5 gets nerfed
If you don’t trust and are on the lookout for silent nerfing, how are you protecting against it detecting a benchmark and using the un-nerfed model?
_aavaa_··on CEO of Mistral: AI is software. It can be controlled
Yes, I fully believe that's why they're pushing on this. But as the general population, we don't need new laws to protect us from this AI-related problem. We just need enforcement of what is already on the books.
_aavaa_··on CEO of Mistral: AI is software. It can be controlled
Why do we need new regulations? Hacking into hugging face is already illegal.
_aavaa_··on Tell HN: OpenAI $500 ProMax plan listed in API
Is there really no limit on number of concurrent agents on either OpenAIs or Anthropic's plans?
_aavaa_··on Owners mourn spoiled food after firmware update bricks Samsung smart fridges
That works for you personally, but what are people going to do 20 years from now? Fight over the dwindling stock of 40 years of vehicles?

To say nothing of the tradeoffs that come with an older vehicle (safety and pollution).

_aavaa_··on Owners mourn spoiled food after firmware update bricks Samsung smart fridges
“Ahh, and yet to participate in society.”

This is a direction all manufacturers are going into, so there is little actual choice. And buying used is not a real solution; where do tomorrow’s used vehicles come from?

_aavaa_··on Mercury 2.5 LLM hits 770 tokens per second
If the model provides me with bad results because it's dumb, I don't care how quickly it does it.
_aavaa_··on Italian parliament votes for return to nuclear energy
Are we prepared to play kingmaker and pick one SMR design to standardize on so that those can ride their theoretical learning curve (assuming we get enough buyers)? Because politically that doesn't seem likely, and I think we'll end up with the units that do get contracted to be spread across multiple firms, none of which make it out of the expensive first few units.

> Even Flameville 3 in France was significantly cheaper than Hinkley point C

Per wikipedia: initial cost estimate €3.3 billion, cost in 2020 (6 years before it was done) €19.1 billion, so 5.8x the budget. Supposed to enter operation in 2012, entered in 2026 "only" 14 years late.

These are terrible results.

That EPR2 series are "expected" to cost less says absolutely nothing. Flameville 3 was expected to cost 83% less too, and I except that if they swindle people for the money to build it we'll see it'll be just as much of an overrun.

The nuclear industry seem absolutely incapable of sticking to a timeline or budget. And any one of these failures should have been disqualifying. But they get to do it over and over again.

_aavaa_··on Italian parliament votes for return to nuclear energy
It will reliably cost only 10x, and it theory it will roll of a production line.

The AP1000 reactors at Vogtle were explicitly marked for the modular construction as a key selling feature, which would reduce time and cost. It came out 20B over budget and 7 years late.

_aavaa_··on Trump says US is officially renaming AI 'super intelligence'
After the two previous America themed rebrands, I'm really surprised it's not American Intelligence.
_aavaa_··on There's a high chance of devices being sold with GrapheneOS preinstalled in 2027
That’s not saying much. The selling point of pixels has always been the software.
_aavaa_··on The Claude Delusion
> Article says that there's no human intention or design directing the output we get

I mean that’s objectively wrong for any model using RLHF.

_aavaa_··on How GLM built its own inference infrastructure
If you are using their coding plan for coding, then yes you can easily hit such cache rates, with a good harness.

I’m getting 97%.

_aavaa_··on How GLM built its own inference infrastructure
I'm not defending their actions, but we should be clear about where the law currently stands: Anthropic was found to infringe because of the torrenting, not because of the training.
_aavaa_··on How GLM built its own inference infrastructure
Their plans are still worth it if you use their models. You can see how many tokens you can except to get based on plan here: https://docs.z.ai/devpack/overview#estimated-token-allowance

The max plan will provide ~1,100 USD of GLM-5.3 or ~260 USD of GLM-5.3-flash per month for 168 USD. I can personally attest to these numbers through omp (~97% cache hit rate).

Unless you are able to highly parallelize (your work, you won't be able to hit your hourly or weekly quota using the flash model simply because it's so slow.

They give you ~3x more flash tokens, which maybe comes out to ~2x more actual work after accounting for the extra thinking it does to achieve the same result. The mental model, for not getting angry, is 5.3 is fast mode by default, and you can disable fast mode for 2x the work output at 1/3-1/10th the speed.

They're serving me 5.3 at ~40 tok/s and 5.3-flash at 30 tok/s (according to omp).

_aavaa_··on EU chief opens door for Canada to become 'associate member'
Would that means Canadians would be protected by the GDPR and DMA?
_aavaa_··on Steam Frame: Valve's standalone SteamOS VR headset ($1,059)
I think cellphones are in fact PCs. Thinking of them as some other category is part of how Apple justifies it’s behaviour with regards to preventing you from installing whatever software you want on your own device; an action that would never fly on macs, but somehow and iPhone and an iPad don’t cause because they’re not PCs, they’re smartphone and tablets.

The only real difference between and iPad and a MacBook at this point is formfactor. There is no reason for not treating them both like the computers they are.

_aavaa_··on Steam Frame: Valve's standalone SteamOS VR headset ($1,059)
Why is it stretching the definition? If compute sticks running windows are PCs why isn’t this?
_aavaa_··on Global Shortage Has Led to Motor Oil Rationing at Costco
The biggest one that needs changing would be the differential.
_aavaa_··on DeepSeek v4.1 Flash
What’s better about it the say oh-my-pi?
_aavaa_··on DeepSeek launching v4.1 flash cheaper and more capable than v4 pro
Yes, and? This is their current off-peak pricing for their flash model [0]: $0.007 cache, $0.22 input, $0.66.

0.007 -> 0.003

0.22 -> 0.15

0.66 -> 0.60

Each one is now cheaper.

[0]: https://api-docs.deepseek.com/quick_start/pricing/

_aavaa_··on Formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem
I don't see them turning people back from buying tokens through the API. Until then, I don't see why we should follow this argument.
_aavaa_··on DeepSeek launching v4.1 flash cheaper and more capable than v4 pro
They might need to step up their product offerings and offer cheaper.
_aavaa_··on DeepSeek launching v4.1 flash cheaper and more capable than v4 pro
What are you talking about? Current flash prices are 0.66 for output, this is dropping it to 0.60.
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