6,788 karma · joined December 24, 2011
sviltodorov[at]gmail.com
https://twitter.com/TenokeX
The only problem (at least in the LLM space) is that you can do more in Europe by just getting the best Chinese Open weights model (do a finetune if you really want) and do more for cheaper than using Mistral.
There's no such ought really. Even at current levels you'd need like a 100x gain from here to approach current top proprietary models (probably a lot more for say Mythos or Mythos 2), and it's not like they are stoppng to improve. This is before we even account that you'd just be running 1 agent then, and not a swarm like you'd be able to in the cloud or that you can do only so much compression before you are losing out
So? The question isnt can we get to ASI as efficiently as a brain, the question is can we get there, which we likely can. The inefficiencies can also be fixed after that.
>No matter how many trillions of dollars get thrown at the problem, they still don't learn like humans do.
Again, so? Humans are efficient but also bad at many things that transformers are already better at because of it. You are looking at the wrong thing if you think it needs to be like humans.
Ive read and watched more of his interviews and lectures it seems, it feels like you just have a rosier idea of his views than the views he repeatedly presents.
You probably wont like the edit but I dont have the timestamp of the original on hand, you can find it.
He said years ago even 'GPT 5000' couldnt do things that they ended up doing fine a month later, let alone by 5000. His later predictions are just moving that goal post including towards them not being able to do more general, harder problems of which Arc AGI is a counter-example.
There's many ways to skin a cat so you can probably do something with a JEPA approach as well, but I doubt he actually catches up to having agents on the level of where Anthropic/OpenAI will be at any point.
xAI effectively did and lucked out to cover their losses and more with it.
2. The alpha dries up with more players, even in the year or whatever since that founder started.