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SnowProblem

358 karma · joined April 8, 2013

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SnowProblem··on Lesson of ivermectin: meta-analyses based on summary data alone are unreliable
In my estimation, probably fewer than authorities think.

US Census collect data on reasons for vaccine hesitancy [1]. #1 and #3 are distrust - of vaccines and of government - which anecdotally matches my network. If that's the case, then we should expect that mischaracterizing treatments to promote vaccines [2] would not be very effective, and most Western countries now are leveling off fairly low in their vaccination rates [3]. But rather than more honesty, we're getting more mandates.

I think Dr. John's Cambell's position, of honest assessment, would have been better as the official position [4]. It's hard to imagine how trust could be regained now though without some sort of reckoning.

1. https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/ho...

2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gndsUjgPYo

3. https://youtu.be/hVtX7tY1B0U?t=210

4. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eO9cjy3Rydc&t=600

SnowProblem··on Tired of dating apps, Vancouver man launches social experiment to find companion
Hey, this is exactly how I met my now wife and we've never heard anyone else with this story before! Long shot, but did this happen in Los Angeles?
SnowProblem··on Amazon says it’s permanently banned 600 Chinese brands for review fraud
Can't relate to the comments here. I usually just go with the "Amazon Choice" badge when there are options and it's fine.
SnowProblem··on Women are nearly half of new gun buyers, study finds
A wonderful book that covers the history of the 2nd amendment along with its modern interpretations is The Second Amendment Primer: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Amendment-Primer-Authorities-C.... It has useful and interesting information regardless of where you stand.
SnowProblem··on How Outrage over Vaccine Mandates Became a Mainstream GOP Stance
States are in charge of vaccination requirements for children. This needs to be a state issue, so that people can move, unless you want civil war.
SnowProblem··on Why can’t I go faster than the speed of light?
And the reason for this, as we all know, is because the universe runs on distributed computers with no global state, where each computer simulates its own local physics and connects only to other nearby computers, and thus the so-called speed of light is simply the emergent rate that data may travel across the network.
SnowProblem··on Biden Will Announce Vaccine Mandate for Companies with 100 Employees
More than you would think. Many health habits, both good and bad, spread socially. https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2007/07/obesity-is-co...
SnowProblem··on The Linux Experiments YouTube channel has been terminated
Two people in my circle were taking IVM pre-pandemic to treat rosacea and lyme disease. This is not an obscure drug in the 1st world. It also doesn't need to be an anti-viral to work on covid - it's already a general anti-inflammatory. Inflammation of the lungs is why people can't breath and often die, and that inflammation is due to the body's own immune response, not the virus itself. The virus is gone by that point. But our standard protocol at first symptoms does not include treating potential inflammation, so by the time people get to hospital it's often too late. It's not good.
SnowProblem··on Media trust hits new low
For a long time my model of the world assumed a certain level of corruption to exist in the West, but I assumed it was generally local, and that any large-scale corruption would become a national scandal, like the Church Committee, or Watergate. Basically I had expected an equal balance of justice to match the crime. I no longer hold that. There is deep corruption everywhere - through the media, to government, academia, tech, and finance, and seemingly nobody to hold institutions and individuals accountable. Were we expected to just forget Jeffrey Epstein, for example, and all the relationships and lack of investigation? It seems so. You either close your eyes to it, or you're forced down some dark rabbit holes just to form a cohesive worldview. The few beacons of light today are now all brave individuals - podcasters, twitter accounts, leakers, writers - and their very existence feels fragile. So this article strikes me as extremely shallow. We're not operating in business-as-usual, where just a few tweaks and the metrics will look good again.
SnowProblem··on Poison Control Centers Are Fielding a Surge of Ivermectin Overdose Calls
We have to get smarter and notice we’re being manipulated.

Watch this debate. Both sides agree the New York Times sacrifices integrity now for engagement, because its drives revenue. It is only a debate of degree.

https://youtu.be/YTHUHJjARKw

They perfected this formula under Trump. Exaggerations and lies about people enrage both sides, one at the target and the other at the media. Ragebait is such a perfect term too because it is designed to enrage as many people as possible on all sides.

And it works. Just this morning there were 4 different discussions about Ivermectin on Hacker News.

1. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28416654

2. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28412115

3. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28415708

4. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28416790

SnowProblem··on How long can a democracy maintain emergency limits and still call itself free?
1787: And what country can preserve it’s liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms. The remedy is to set them right as to facts, pardon and pacify them. What signify a few lives lost in a century or two? The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. - Thomas Jefferson, https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Jefferson/01-12-02-0...

2021: If you wanted or if you think you need to have weapons to take on the government, you need F-15s and maybe some nuclear weapons. - Joe Biden, https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-mocks-gun-right-advoca...

Some people want you to forget this natural law.

SnowProblem··on Three Clocks Are Better Than One
Reminds me of a comment in the original Bitcoin source code: "Never go to sea with two chronometers; take one or three."

One of the three was left as a todo :D

https://github.com/trottier/original-bitcoin/blob/92ee8d9a99...

SnowProblem··on China has forbidden under-18s from playing games for more than three hours/week
Like many other commentors here, I grew up playing primarily skill-based video games, like Legend of Zelda, RollerCoaster Tycoon, Counter-Strike, StarCraft. It was wanting to make these games that led me to become a software developer. But games were different. Even a game like Pokemon, which has a few loot-box mechanics, was only mildly addicting. The first game I remember being extremely addicting was World of Warcraft. It became a habit to simply click the icon as soon as the desktop loaded, and although I do have many good memories, I also know friends that played 8 hours a day for years whose lives look worse off to me. Through loot-boxes, social scores, and now mobile, addiction has been perfected.

And yet, we are not robots. We make our own choices. Parents set limits and create alternatives, and schools and community groups do too. Games also simply get old after a while. Anyone who really wants to stop a gaming addiction can stop it - it is only a question of will. So I find what the CCP is doing abhorrently wrong because their actions create the very dependence on government, and the removal of will at any other level, that perpetuates themselves as a solution. The Western way is messier for sure, but if we want freedom, we have to be OK with mistakes.

SnowProblem··on Comparing SARS-CoV-2 natural immunity to vaccine-induced immunity [pdf]
Dr. John Campbell had a video on this last week: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20DxL8KhvgA.
SnowProblem··on CDC: Covid vaccine effectiveness fell from 91% to 66% with Delta variant
In the FDA's press release yesterday [1], they justified Pfizer approval by saying the vaccine had a 91% effectiveness. But everyone knows that number is no longer true - the data was from March, before Delta. If the FDA were acting responsibly and credibly, they would have used the latest data, but then approval doesn't look so favorable.

It's probably relevant that Pfizer spent over $200M lobbying politicians over the past 20 years, more than any other pharmaceutical [3]. And Biden's administration clearly weren't happy with the FDA - just last week they said they are looking for a new head for November [3]. Interesting how approval came the next week. How much money does Pfizer stand to gain, once mandates and boosters? $15/shot?

[1] https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-appr...

[2] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar...

[3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-19/janet-woo...

SnowProblem··on SpaceX’s Starlink near-misses with other spacecraft are getting ‘out of control’
I like to imagine a future where space is unregulated, and some alternative LEO satellite Internet company begins to shoot down SpaceX's satellites in order to make room for their own. That in turn inspires SpaceX to deploy their own defensive drones, and technology escalates. I'm not really sure where this would all go but it would make for a great fiction.
SnowProblem··on After criticism, Apple to only seek abuse images flagged in multiple nations
I have a 4" iPhone SE. Love it, but Apple has continued to push me away these last four years. I no longer use any other Apple products except for this 4-year-old phone. What alternatives are there for small phone fans? Sony used to make an Xperia Compact that was nice, but I think they discontinued it.
SnowProblem··on WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases
The side effects of HCQ were very overstated. The first study [1] that was pushed by the media to discredit Trump saying HCQ might be dangerous to the heart was later retracted [2] because the authors refused to share its data. The best metaanalysis today shows HCQ works to treat COVID if used early and is safe at the right doses [3].

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/health/malaria-drug-trump...

[2] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

[3] https://hcqmeta.com/

SnowProblem··on WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases
Aytu BioPharma is a small company bringing UV light into the body, and the early trials on COVID last year showed it worked. The same was true for Hydroxychloroquine too. You fell for propaganda.

https://aytubio.com/pipeline/healight-technology-platform/

SnowProblem··on California's Dixie Fire Is Now the 2nd Largest in State History
Why do you think a lawsuit would be fruitless? Yes courts move slow, but there is clear harm here. The federal government bears responsibility over this land. If they don’t want it, then they should hand the land over to the states, or otherwise compensate those states affected. There have been many disputes about water rights over the years that are similar to this. I would bet this will happen eventually.
SnowProblem··on California's Dixie Fire Is Now the 2nd Largest in State History
Thanks. I enjoyed reading up on that today. As for the federal role, I think a lawsuit is exactly how to solve this. Both parties are for big government, and neither has solved this when they could.
SnowProblem··on California's Dixie Fire Is Now the 2nd Largest in State History
Does California not have a role there? Or perhaps the suit should be against the federal government then, or both, but something needs to change. It doesn’t have to be this way.
SnowProblem··on California's Dixie Fire Is Now the 2nd Largest in State History
California has by far the most number of wildfires and most acres burned each year compared to other states, no matter your measure. States can sue one another over water rights if one state is polluting water upstream to another state. Is a similar right available for air rights? It seems unfair that Nevada, Idaho, Colorado and Montana have to suffer from California’s mismanagement and lack of prevention, and perhaps a lawsuit would finally provide the right incentives.
SnowProblem··on Google and Facebook mandate vaccines for employees at U.S. offices
Appreciate the response. Regarding side effects, I picked those 3 because at least in my own family ~25% had those shortly after the 2nd dose, and are still ongoing. Their doctors think it’s coincidence, but it makes me skeptical how rare the side effects actually are. Open to any hard data though. If we could treat covid and stop it via natural immunity as well as vaccination, I think it could work better than ongoing boosters and mandates.
SnowProblem··on Google and Facebook mandate vaccines for employees at U.S. offices
I don't disagree with you. In fact, I don't know what the correct policy should be. But we have focused heavily on preventing infection, and the vaccines have been amazing at this so far. Because now of variants and decreasing immunity, we know boosters will be needed, and for how long? Also some people are having bad side effects, like blood clots, heart problems, exhaustion, and even death, making others skeptical. No doubt it is safer than covid though. But this makes me wonder if we should have more comprehensive policy. Ivermectin seems great at treatment at various stages of covid once infected without those side effects, and also seems to hold up better against the variants. But it also looks less effective overall.

Dr. John Cambell's video on it is worth a watch: https://youtu.be/R0-90kvoQac?t=610.

As is the ongoing meta-analysis: https://ivmmeta.com

SnowProblem··on Google and Facebook mandate vaccines for employees at U.S. offices
Curious, how does Ivermectin fit into your worldview?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fda-ivermectin-covid-19-coronav...

SnowProblem··on EU plans to make Bitcoin transfers more traceable
The information is out there for people to make up their own mind. But if you are confident that CSW is larping as Satoshi, let's have some fun and make it a bet.
SnowProblem··on EU plans to make Bitcoin transfers more traceable
Been hearing this since 2018. Meanwhile

- Cryptofights alone did 600k transactions yesterday https://bsvdata.com

- Hundreds of independent games, social media, wallets, exchanges, tokens, artwork, hackathons in general creativity. https://metastore.app

- Solid user and developer experiences. https://handcash.io, https://moneybutton.com, https://cryptofights.io, https://run.network

- Thousands globally who fly to attend conferences, before covid at least https://coingeekconference.com/en/past-conferences/london-fe...

- Advanced research going into scaling Bitcoin. 50K tps demonstrated publicly, more privately. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3As9-9uSXs&t=224s

- Active community, spread across Slack, Youtube, Streamanity, Twitter, Telegram, and others. Tons of different personalities and beliefs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LAPRWOwam20

Clearly dead though.

SnowProblem··on EU plans to make Bitcoin transfers more traceable
In practice, Bitcoin's privacy model was never even tried though. BTC fees are so prohibitively expensive that no wallet or user would generate more UTXOs or transactions than they have to, making it trivial to trace, yes. But if BTC had been allowed to scale like it was originally designed, then wallets would not fear inputting and outputting potentially hundreds of UTXOs in every transaction of varying amounts so that it becomes practically impossible to trace.

On Bitcoin SV, basically a high-scale version of Bitcoin, there are today several wallets taking smarter approaches to privacy. HandCash's Output Bills [1] for example splits outputs into fixed denominations like cash, and Paymail [2] is a email-like addressing scheme to avoid sharing addresses publicly. I'm sure more approaches will be tried too now that wallets have some freedom to experiment.

[1] https://handcash.medium.com/introducing-output-bills-a-coin-...

[2] https://bsvalias.org/

SnowProblem··on 20% of Americans think vaccines contain microchips to control people
The results actually say 51% of the unvaccinated, and 9% of vaccinated, think vaccines have microchips in them, pulling the overall number to 20%. Obviously, this is wrong, if you have any common sense at all. Stupid questions deserve stupid answers. The census has what looks like a more accurate list of reasons for vaccine hesitancy IMO.

- 50.6% Concerned about side effects

- 47.6% Don't trust COVID-19 vaccines

- 34.9% Don't believe I need it

- 34.4% Don't trust the government

- 27.2% Plan to wait until it is safe

https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/ho...

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