179 karma · joined September 16, 2014
That's pretty substantial. Obviously no one knows what Phase 3 will show, but cynicism seems unwarranted at this point.
https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-detail...
• Exenatide - FDA approved in 2005
• Liraglutide / Saxenda - FDA approved in 2010
• Dulaglutide / Trulicity - FDA approved in 2014
• Semaglutide / Ozempic/Wegovy - FDA approved in 2017
• Tirzepatide / Mounjaro - FDA approved in 2022
Ozempic / Semaglutide was FDA approved in 2017, but clinical trials started in 2008. That was 16 years ago. Obviously it's always possible there are even longer term side effects we're unaware of, but generally if this class of drug caused large scale problems for kidneys, liver, etc, we'd likely know by now.
Last I heard they have $1B in cash on hand and are doing roughly $3B/year in revenue. Musk has reportedly gotten their annual expenses down to $3B with another $1.5B in annual debt servicing costs.
By my math that's less than a year of runway.
It only works if all the companies agree to cover it.
Mounjaro is not widely available outside the US yet.
Disclaimer: I’m not advocating this - just sharing info.
A question I often get is "how effective is it?"
The SURMOUNT-1 study released in April 2022 showed 22.5% average reduction in weight for people on the highest dose of Mounjaro. For a 250 lbs person who should weigh 150 lbs (so 100 lbs of extra weight), this would result in them losing 56 lbs or 56% of their excess weight.
For context, bariatric surgery has the following success:
- Gastric Band: 35% - 45% of excess weight lost - Gastric Sleeve: 60% - 75% of excess weight lost
The fact that a once a week injection is having results similar to bariatric surgery is insane, and this is only the early innings of this shift. Lilly has another drug in the works (will likely be released in late 2025) that is reporting better results than Mounjaro.
Wild and exciting times!
With a country like modern day Germany it seems easier to determine who the "good" vs "bad" guys are. But take the current situation in Iran as a counter example - there I think we'd all agree that it's decidedly less obvious that the government should have the ability to kill people who disagree.