Lord-Jobo

Criminals with competence still operate in big numbers today, but LE very rarely targets them. The soft targets are just so abundant and easy, and the LE incentive system does not reward choosing hard targets at all.

Doesn’t help that a big chunk of the competent criminals have fully or partially internationalized their operations which acts as a very strong shield against LE.

Digital forensics examiner here; it’s extremely accurate especially for the tech involved at the time. I think I spotted a very small handful of things it had to kick under a rug for the plot to work, which is unbelievably small for a show like that.

It’s easily the best LE show that exists, but not just because of its accuracy; it’s incredible in its pure honesty. Some of the cops are total worthless shit bags, worse than the best of the criminals easily. Allowing that overlap, one that exists in real life, injects a whole lot of nuance into the story that is basically nonexistent outside of the show. And allows characters to grow and improve. It takes writers with actual LE experience (which they had) and a lot of talent to write that kind of thing without totally blowing it.

It’s nefarious by definition, because the actual full statement is

> they’re tracking us to increase their profits, everything else be damned. Including your interests, your rights, the law, morality, and long term side effects.

The last bit is unspoken but ALWAYS there.

Taking it fucking seriously as a nation and implementing any of the possible externality capture models in earnest. That means a rapidly scaling(5 year) decline in oil subsidizes to zero, a rapidly scaling ban on fossil fuel power (10 year) and a rapidly scaling (10 years) deployment of a carbon tax credit system, and at least a 100x government research grants on carbon capture technology. All of the above, in sufficient numbers, would achieve surefire results without taking absurd risks and massive gambles. All of it, and many other things, have been researched and talked about to death for years, rigor and scrutiny that geo engineering has not.

They haven’t been implemented because vested interests have billions of dollars to keep those changes from happening, and the public has not put their ballots behind it, leading to very unserious short term thinkers in positions of power. Change that, and we could easily afford to do this, we have the money and lack the willpower.

The climate disaster costs are going to be so so much bigger than that unless our rates change. It’s easy to look at our $30000B gdp, even project that to 100k B into the future, and say “well we will eat the 2-10B costs”.

There is no number for “we don’t have a source of soy anymore” or “Florida coastlines have moved 50 miles inland” or “the Ogallala is empty”. We could guess, and we would be guessing some really really big numbers that don’t sound very eatable.

The big easy ones are the weather disasters. Katrina did 200b in damage (inflation adjusted). If we jump up to a disaster like that yearly, 1000b every 5 years is…. A serious problem for a 30,000B economy. And that’s JUST hurricanes.

The third path that is constantly being pushed against by rubes, dishonest hacks, and large moneyed interests.

And intentionally left out of conversations like this by people addicted to simplistic thinking and binary fallacies

This is really embarrassing to write in public, to be frank.

Weather and climate are not the same thing, they are several orders of magnitude different in scope. This is first grader information, typically.

Predicting weather relies on metrics like wind, pressure, moisture in tight local areas, they can change hundreds of percent in that scope within 24 hours.

Predicting climate relies on information like co2 levels, ocean temperatures, or glacier melt rates. If any of those changes hundreds of percent in 24 hours the entire planet would be fucking dead instantly.

Weather prediction relies in records going back in the range of 30-70 years.

Climate prediction relies on records going back MILLIONS of years.

Comparing the two is like comparing the ripples in your bathtub to the movements of the heavenly bodies. It’s asinine.

Like a lot of climate sized issues, the ozone hole was a rate based issue, In that our rate of “hole growing” was the real problem that needed addressing immediately. And the rates have MASSIVELY improved thanks to the global CFC actions.

Current direction of rate change show that we reach zero depletion (rate of 0.0 ozone loss) by late 203x, with zero hole in late 20xx (rate of -x.x as it heals).

That’s a very considerable turnaround for damage we did over the course of 30 years.

Thwaites mass loss rate is 500% what it was in 1990. 500%, that is 2026 study. It is accelerating very rapidly as well.

I don’t give a damn, to be perfectly honest, what some sign posted god knows when with who knows what information, says. This is a man made global catastrophe. Information and research is very clear and very robust.

Ice loss in just 202x, from JUST thwaites, contributes to several centimeters of ocean rise. It’s going to be much much higher in 203x and 204x. It’s just one (unusually big) glacier of many.

We can all sit here and Reee Reee about the things that were overly reductive, overstated, wrong, even a lie. What I wrote above this is none of those and it’s actually psychotic how little we talk about the cryosphere collapse, given how badly it’s going to fuck us, not 1000 years from now, not 100 years from now, but 10 years from now. I played a video game twice that age on my computer yesterday.

Split batteries are also better for efficient space usage (depending on the chassis) and longevity.

It’s the only effective method and they basically refuse to do it. Which is a clear sign: the goal is not to “effectively and efficiently stop illegal immigration”. It’s to “cruelly and brutally punish illegal immigrants”. You will see some overlap between those two, but not much. Which is why our Stephen Miller executive policy is the way it is right now.

This really is my big issue with the focus on “extremist, moderate, centrist, whatever”. I don’t care what the centrist or moderate opinion is. It’s been insanely wrong many times throughout history. (1939 German opinions on Jewish people. Public view on MLK at the time of his death) Let’s focus less on “extreme” and more on “unprincipled, uncritical, illogical, undercooked”. If you discard those categories, ignore extreme vs moderate, you get rid of anything that we should consider “bad” that is normally captured by “extreme”

LLM are so insanely terrible at this that I constantly have to moderate my prompts with “maybe this isn’t true” or “maybe I am misunderstanding this explanation” to get them to STOP crumbling into dust over the slightest pressure. That’s WITH strong pre prompts that also push against this bias. Roleplay/persona used to be a good way to get around this. “Pretend you are an almighty, rarely wrong, curmudgeonly professor with 150 different phds talking to me, a student”. But these abilities have been strongly restricted due to other (fair) issues so it’s not a solution any more.

Better than a bar patron, no doubt. Still nothing compared to any normal well educated human being

There is a pretty small set of things I think people have a duty to know in our very open and comfortable first world.

Civics is the main one that is being catastrophically neglected as pointed out by some other comments here. A majority of the discourse in every political space completely fumbles this(USA). Conservatives openly desire a king above the constitution. Centrists believe that a highly lopsided balance of power can somehow be fixed with moderate responses. And leftists are nearly 24/7 frothing at the mouth with “why WONT THE DEMOCRATS DO SOMETHING” without any apparent understanding of how majorities and pluralities dictate action in our government.

I wouldn’t guess higher than 5% of our political dialogue reflects anything higher than a grade schooler understanding of civics, history, or politics. Which is damn near the only thing we MUST know about to keep the ship upright here thanks to technology and abundance. And we still fuck it more and more every year.

Yeah, biased in favor of people who can think critically. All litmus tests are biased, they are designed to kick out a group of people, pointing out that bias is strange.

Just because liberals tend to end up in the in-group doesn’t mean the test is bad. It means liberals are doing better (in this one specific regard, civics knowledge).

Billions of OUR dollars. Dumped into the MIC for Iran, wasting billions more of our dollars by surging energy prices. Then spending billions more to kill wind projects. Adding at least a billion to his own wallet.

How many billions of dollars will we allow this clown and his cronies to steal from us?

They don’t need to keep a low profile, they have the president and his family using their services for enrichment. They are immune from consequence, might as well advertise at maximum and unleash hell for the most gain.

This is why principled ethical behavior MUST be a cornerstone of acceptable behavior above greed. Even if you are washing and selling greed as “financial obligations” “capital interests” or some other corporate bullshit.

Promote this man immediately to the head of our new megacorp Walmart-Exxon-Lockheed-Yum.

As everyone knows, real gdp growth is the only metric of goodness. All other numbers and figures are meaningless, we all down before the might RGDPG

It’s not possible to truly estimate what our military costs would be without those conflicts, but I would be interested in our energy costs if you incorporated the military costs into that. I’m willing to bet we pay more than nearly anyone else if you lump it in relatively fairly.

I literally don’t understand, and have a deep distrust of people who say we haven’t seen deceleration.

The diminishing returns are colossal. GPT 4 is more than 3 years old now, and while Sol is definitely better, it’s better at a tremendous cost. And 3 years of development. And it still fails in nearly all the same places as 4.0.

I’m not some “zero AI” person, I don’t think this industry will collapse into nothing and we will go back to a no LLM world.

But to look at this industry, which basically began in November 2022, almost 4 years and a trillion+ dollars later and say “oh yeah, definitely riding that exponential growth still” is some of the wildest shit I’ve ever seen, and it’s so common.

It’s like they dump “bad at programming and don’t care about it” juice right into the water supply.

It absolutely is. Gambling made legal overnight, exploding into a mega industry? Nah take a look at this scary Red Bull!

I have ADHD and noticed an INVERSE effect of caffeine for years, it would mostly just make me tired. That was before being properly medicated with a stimulant. After that, caffeine works the same as anyone else. It’s very weird.

In the internet age, I’ve learned this is pretty common for people with adhd.

I have 6 or so years experience with serious running, and experienced a runners high exactly 1 time.

>which box to buy

…

> spark, costs less than a conference trip.

I know putting actual prices regionally localizes your article and temporally, with how prices are so unstable. But analysis of “what to buy” without actual prices is borderline meaningless.

Overall, good article, very interesting to see a real deployment that’s actually attainable and not just a subscription to a big 3 token plan.

*The software I landed on is Koodo Reader

It can be a skill, but a very soft skill like keeping control of and educating 30 kindergarten students. It’s a skill, hard earned and nebulous. you can recognize it clearly when you see it, but it’s very hard to define/measure numerically and will never achieve anything close to “perfect” results.

Until these models become many factors more deterministic, at least. That’s sort of the hard barrier here, and given the underlying tech it’s a really tough one to overcome

Haven’t found a model yet that really orchestrates in a way that reflects how learning works. Or at least, how I learn.

I can get them into different teaching/learning “modes” and configure those modes appropriately, but they don’t know how to switch between them in context and automatically, and they ALWAYS go tangential and ADHD mode after depressingly few exchanges before they need to reset. I’m talking like, 5? Just not good enough to really satisfy.

Huge improvements over time of course, but they seem to have plateaud for this particular issue.

It doesn’t seem like it’s a huge ask imo, and I’m also pretty surprised that they have such limited support, a mostly text format like epub really should be simple to add functionality for.

Less surprising but still annoying is how many hoops you need to jump through to get a good reading experience for manga, particularly on macOS. I had to try many options that were either too buggy, too difficult to install correctly, various aggressive paywalls, or straight up don’t function with high quality scans.

Eventually I landed on one(will edit the name in when I have access to my laptop) that functions well but has some memory issues in importing books, possibly a memory leak.

Maybe I’ve just become shit at finding apps in the modern unsearchable age, but it really feels like reading of all types has diminished enough that we are an unserviceable market.

Police are, in the most generous light, just as fallible and likely to abuse power as the rest of us. You can loosely define power as “Effect minus repercussion”. Massive effects like the nuclear football have massive repercussions like the end of civilization, so we tend to view them with a degree of balance. MAD has worked on this principle for decades pretty effectively. Even a tiny bit of Effect, with zero Repercussion, leads to unjust abuse, such as the diplomatic immunity issues in New York City. Nearly everything we have given the police has huge Effect, mostly by necessity, but more every day with tools like flock and the stripping of our rights. Endless military hardware, etc. Simultaneously we have ALSO been shrinking the repercussions for police. for decades. When sued the taxpayers pay for their defense. When they lose the lawsuits, the taxpayers pay the plaintiffs out and the police very very rarely face prison. Often times they can keep working in another department. They have extra protections nobody else has so they are less likely to lose those cases in the first place. There is next to ZERO oversight of all the tools we give them, to prevent the lawsuits. Federal police can remain anonymous when they commit obvious homicide or executions, apparently. We are very close to an effectively infinite power situation because there are next to zero repercussions. Even IF cops had no firearms, no armored vehicles, no flock, no palantir. They could still bust the door down to their ex girlfriend’s place and beat up their new boyfriend for any kind of flimsy excuse. Because what are you going to do about it? Sue them? You’re just offering them a free vacation.