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JauntTrooper

1,510 karma · joined August 11, 2015

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JauntTrooper··on 10-year Treasury yield climbs above 5.3% to a level not seen in 24 years
We would have to raise federal taxes by an average of at least 39% per household and on businesses =just= to balance the deficit.

The reason the US is a comparably "low tax" country is because we're borrowing the difference.

What worries me the most is that this is at a high point in our economic cycle, when tax collection is arguably the highest. The deficit and debt will expand significantly in the next recession.

JauntTrooper··on People hooked on vapes try a new way to quit: cigarettes
Nicotine isn't just 'extra effective caffeine.'

The research seems to indicate it's a cancer accelerant -- it doesn't cause cancer directly, but it promotes the growth and spread of existing tumors.

Studies suggest it does this through several pathways including:

(a) preventing cancer cells from self-destructing (b) making tumor cells divide more quickly (c) stimulating the growth of new blood vessels in and around tumors, helping them grow; and (d) helping cancer cells metastasize more easily by increasing mobility via epithelial-mesenchymal transition.

It also lowers the effectiveness of chemo and radiotherapy.

Admittedly, most of these are animal/lab studies, in part because it's hard to design a good study in humans since so many patients also use/used cigarettes and vapes, which confounds the results. Still, there's enough evidence out there to be cautious.

JauntTrooper··on Warren Buffett Steps Down as Berkshire Chairman, Names Son to Replace Him
1% of $140 billion is still $1.4 billion.
JauntTrooper··on Hollywood's Video Game Era Is Here. Will It Be Any Good?
My kids enjoyed the Minecraft movie, and it was a commercial success.
JauntTrooper··on U.S. State Department pauses immigrant visa applications
Almost a year. The May 2026 rule ended it for a lot of people, but they ended in-country processing for his situation/country earlier. The new rules are complicated and constantly shifting nowadays.
JauntTrooper··on U.S. State Department pauses immigrant visa applications
For now they're just waiting, separately, each living with relatives. There is zero guidance. The US consulate did not provide a reason for rejecting it other than the freeze, so there's nothing to even appeal.

Moving his wife and kid to his birth country isn't really an option. He doesn't plan to stay there. He has no job, no house, and no social network there. He barely speaks the language. His wife (US born) has a job and family here, and his kid only speaks English. Asking them to pull their kid out of school and move to another country until the US consulate decides to start processing paperwork again doesn't really seem like a reasonable solution, though with every passing week and month, it may end up being the only way they can be together again.

JauntTrooper··on U.S. State Department pauses immigrant visa applications
You're right, I fixed the wording. I don't know all the details, but I do think it's a recent change. They've been married for almost ten years. His wife and child are US born.

Trump ended in-country processing and now requires almost all greencard applicants to go to a consulate abroad. My friend and his wife were surprised and nervous when they were told he'd have to leave due to this new requirement (rightfully so, in retrospect).

JauntTrooper··on Wiped out: US faces surging toilet paper prices amid trade war with Canada
Sadly, I think you're right.
JauntTrooper··on Wiped out: US faces surging toilet paper prices amid trade war with Canada
The US also has significant agriculture subsidies. Most developed countries do.

In dairy, for example, if prices get "too low", the US directly buys excess supply to increase the price, makes direct payments to dairy farmers, and subsidizes feed (corn/soybeans) and farmers' insurance.

Most historical trade agreements between the US and friendly nations tolerated minor interventions and subsidies on both sides.

Trump is taking a completely different tact. His goal is not free trade or sustainable relationships. He recognizes the US is the stronger party in most of these negotiations, and wants to use that to extract concessions that explicitly favor the US, even if it strains and damages the economies of historical allies.

JauntTrooper··on The case for MUDs in modern times (2018)
My first character was a Lion Warden too. :)

I always get a kick out of running into another wotmud alumni in the wild.

JauntTrooper··on The case for MUDs in modern times (2018)
Wotmud is still going strong. Come join the discord!
JauntTrooper··on Why Sony can't bring back its classic Walkman models
One day they'll write a similar article about the iPhone.

It's amazing how ephemeral these incredibly complex manufacturing networks are.

JauntTrooper··on The revenge of the philosophy majors
When I was in college, a philosophy degree was seen as excellent training for a career in Law.
JauntTrooper··on I want to live like Costco people
The article had Don DeLillo vibes.

> And this is where we wait together, regardless of our age, our carts stocked with brightly colored goods. A slowly moving line, satisfying, giving us time to glance at the tabloids in the racks. Everything we need that is not food or love is here in the tabloid racks. The tales of the supernatural and the extraterrestrial. The miracle vitamins, the cures for cancer, the remedies for obesity. The cults of the famous and the dead.

JauntTrooper··on The Disadvantages of an Elite Education (2008)
Yeah... I went to an ivy league school and I've never felt remotely that way, nor did any of my friends.

Sure, some of my classmates were snobs, and there was probably a higher concentration of them (snobs are drawn to prestige-granting institutions, after all), but I wouldn't blame the education for that.

You find the same kind of attitude with any exclusive groups, from employees of fancy tech companies to country clubs to religious & political organizations.

JauntTrooper··on Canada slashes 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs to 6%
The efficacy of US democracy has eroded over time, and it's clear we're going to need reforms to preserve democratic governance for future generations.

Every branch of the federal government has experienced a decline in democratic accountability.

The House is so gerrymandered that only 10% of seats are remotely competitive each year, and it hasn't kept up with population growth.

The Senate is permanently gerrymandered, with state population differences that are far more disproportionate than what was originally designed for and intended when the Constitution was written.

This combined with hyper-partisanship prevents the US from accepting new states like Washington DC (population 700,000+) and Puerto Rico (population 3.2 million), depriving millions of US citizens from Congressional representation (no, non-voting representatives don't count).

The Supreme Court has become hyperpartisan, and appointments are a high stake circus that rely on arbitrary retirements and deaths. They need to be elected at this point to preserve democratic legitimacy.

As for the Presidency... the Electoral College has resulted in the election of the loser of a popular vote twice in 25 years.

I don't know how reform will happen, or if we'll ever see it in my lifetime but we desperately need it. The US government needs to be accountable to the people again.

Democracy is precious, and it's so tragic to see how much it's declined.

JauntTrooper··on Microsoft Office renamed to “Microsoft 365 Copilot app”
In 2011 Netflix announced it would split its DVD-by-mail and streaming businesses. The DVD business would be called "Qwikster", which was mocked. Eventually they reversed the decision.

Besides the goofy name, people thought the move was premature. Netflix wanted to go all-in on streaming. The catalogue was a lot more limited back then, though, and the DVDs helped bridge the gap since a lot of movies and TV shows that were unavailable for streaming were available by DVD instead.

JauntTrooper··on Norway wealth fund to vote for human rights report at Microsoft, against Nadella
Yes. Here is the proxy statement with the proposals: https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0000789019/0...

You have to scroll down a bit to page 83 to get to the one the article is referencing.

JauntTrooper··on Norway wealth fund to vote for human rights report at Microsoft, against Nadella
Some additional details: The proposal was submitted by an individual shareholder.

She requests that the Board "commission a report assessing the implications of siting Microsoft cloud datacenters in countries of significant human rights concern, and the Company’s strategies for mitigating these impacts."

She specifically cites the 2024 completion of a Microsoft datacenter in Saudi Arabia, citing a "State Department report [that] details the highly restrictive Saudi control of all internet activities and pervasive government surveillance, arrest, and prosecution of online activity."

The Board opposes the proposal because it believes Microsoft already discloses extensive disclosures on key human rights risks, and has an independent assessment each year of how they manage risks and its commitment to protecting freedom of expression and user privacy. They also re-iterate the need to comply with local laws and legally binding requests for customer data.

The proposal is non-binding, so the Board doesn't have to act on it even in the unlikely event it gets majority support (ESG proposals rarely do, especially in this environment). In practice many Boards do choose to act on majority-supported non-binding shareholder proposals, though, because many shareholders will vote against directors the following year if they don't.

JauntTrooper··on TSA to charge $18 fee for travelers without Real ID or passport
I had trouble getting one. I thought I was prepared. I brought in my passport, my social security card, my paystubs, and stacks of utility bills to prove my residence.

They told me bills needed to be physically postmarked, not printed, so what I brought didn't count. The problem was I had gone digital/paperless, so I hardly ever received physical bills in the mail.

I eventually had to switch two of them to paper billing, wait a month or two, get the bill, and then use that before switching back, then go back to the DMV. It was really annoying.

JauntTrooper··on Report: Tim Cook could step down as Apple CEO 'as soon as next year'
The AirPods have been my biggest source of tech wonder in recent years.

The noise cancelation features, and now the live translation function? So cool.

JauntTrooper··on AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All
Uber might be the wildest cultural shift of the last 25 years.

Nobody blinks twice nowadays at getting into a car with a total stranger.

JauntTrooper··on Trump pardons convicted Binance founder
The Senate is in a permanent state of gerrymandering.

There were only 13 states when the Constitution was ratified. It was never envisioned to be as disproportionate as it is today, with California's two Senators representing 40 million people vs. Wyoming's 0.6 million.

JauntTrooper··on Trump pardons convicted Binance founder
Gerrymandering is at the heart of the rot.
JauntTrooper··on Is there a no-AI audience?
We're remodeling our kitchen, and for some reason so many stoves come with wifi and bluetooth.
JauntTrooper··on U.S. Woman Dies from Mad Cow-Like Brain Disease That Lay Dormant for 50 Years
That is such a long latency period.

I wonder if it slowly progresses over time, or if it develops opportunistically once some other bodily system that keeps it in check breaks down with age.

JauntTrooper··on The effect of deactivating Facebook and Instagram on users' emotional state
WhatsApp has really taken on this role for me, now that mention it.

I have a channel for my neighborhood, another for the parents at my children's school, another for my extended family, another for work colleagues and another for a few friends.

JauntTrooper··on The Dire Wolf Is Back
Birds are more difficult to clone than mammals. I don't think we've been able to clone one yet.

I hope to see a passenger pigeon one day though.

JauntTrooper··on EPA Launches Biggest Deregulatory Action in U.S. History
The US has a lot of cheap natural gas and China does not.

Natural gas is hard to transport and often needs to be liquified to travel overseas, so global prices vary widely.

JauntTrooper··on Gödel's theorem debunks the most important AI myth – Roger Penrose [video]
When I was a kid, I used to imagine if that society ever developed AI, there would be widespread pushback to the idea that computers could ever develop consciousness.

I imagined the Catholic Church, for example, would be publishing missives reminding everyone that only humans can have souls, and biologists would be fighting an quixotic battle to claim that consciousness can arise from physical structures and forces.

I'm still surprised at how credulous and accepting societies have been of AI developments over the last few years.

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