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JRKrause

328 karma · joined January 8, 2019

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JRKrause··on How Zillow's homebuying scheme lost $881M
Zillow purchased a home in my neighborhood for $370K, is now trying to sell it for $410K. Prior to this purchase other houses with a larger footprint in our exact same neighborhood were selling for $250K(literally just months before). For some reason zillow chose to pay 100K over what would have been fair value for the house.
JRKrause··on Russia deploys a mystery munition in Ukraine
You are under-estimating the long-term traumatic psychological effects a bad trip can have. Not to mention the inability to properly control dosage in a large-area dispersion scenario.
JRKrause··on How to grow monosodium glutamate (MSG) crystals
Coming from a semiconductor crystal growth background, I really love these articles. I wonder what could be accomplished by further controlling the growth environment. From my understanding, the growth-rate of these crystals is limited by the availability of mass i.e. the slow evaporation of water out of the suspension liquid increases the MSG concentration which in turn makes condensation of MSG onto the seed crystal energetically favorable.

Generally, the most energetically favorable outcome is for these condensing molecules to incorporate into the 'ideal' location within the crystal lattice, forming a single-crystalline mass. From the images we can see condensation on walls of the container which indicates that 'non-ideal' incorporation is prevalent.

One way to combat this is to the raise the growth temperature, such that molecules that condense into non-single-crystalline locations are more likely to just dissolve back into the solution. Finding this optimal temperature where molecule-glass condensation is unlikely but molecule-crystal lattice is likely is, naturally, difficult.

Lots of nobs to turn in a process like this. It's fun to imagine how you might construct a proper growth reactor that allows more precise control of temperature and mass flux.

JRKrause··on Rogue antibodies involved in almost one-fifth of Covid deaths
Purely anecdotal but my loss of taste,smell came nearly two days after the primary COVID-19 symptoms had passed; making me wonder about the role immune response played into those apparent after-effects. Tangentially related, an acquaintance of mine (62+, history of lung disease) had lung failure leading to lung transplant following their vaccination. Causation is clearly not guaranteed here but I am still left to speculate about the role of the immune system in these outcomes.
JRKrause··on Mining firm Rio Tinto sorry for destroying Aboriginal caves (2020)
Just wait another 46,000 years and it will rebuild itself in a certain sense.
JRKrause··on Impact of Go AI on the professional Go world
I am not making, and do not explicitly agree with, the statement that only human brains are imbued with 'creativity'. However, the core of the alphaGo algorithm is just a monte-carlo tree search of the game initially populated with prior estimates of the value of each game state(with the generation of the prior value estimates being carried out by the DNN). I see no space in this simplistic statistical game analysis for concepts such as creativity. The move in question was chosen because it's prior value estimate by alphaGo was favorable and upon further analysis was concluded to be the most likely to result in a game victory relative to all other available moves. If alphaGo was only trained on human matches and subsequently was able to discover moves that drastically deviate from typical human strategies, I would be more open to labeling it as creative. However, most of alphaGo's training is carried out against itself, it's entirely possible that alphaGo has made this particular(or similar) move many times against itself during training.
JRKrause··on Impact of Go AI on the professional Go world
This comment, that AlphaGo showed "creativity", seems so ridiculous to me. Alphago is operating purely on bayesian statistics (with very good priors) so it's decisions are exactly the opposite of creativity.
JRKrause··on Ketamine that's injected during arrests draws new scrutiny
Tangentially related, ketamine was what they dosed the kids stuck in the cave with prior to dragging them out last year.
JRKrause··on Game Programming Patterns: Event Queue (2014)
If we keep a complete record of all player inputs we can also replay the exact game after the fact, a great feature that arises as a consequence of this design choice.
JRKrause··on DeepMind introduces ‘EATS’: adversarial, end-to-end approach to text-to-speech
This isn't true. Alphastar achieved super-human APM, in excess of 1500, in short bursts. Even if it's average APM was lower than a human this is still not a good comparison because it's value-per-click (e.g. not misclicking) is going to be extremely high. It's victories were largely due to superior micro control and a highly effective method of judging it's relative power in an engagement(i.e. when to push an engagement versus retreating). I think this says more about Starcraft II as a game than it does about the learning ability of DNNs. When you have perfect Stalker micro, nothing else in SC2 really matters (to some zero-th order approximation).
JRKrause··on Who Smeared Richard Feynman? (2014)
The most significant separator for me is that, from my understanding, Feynman was an actual practicing scientist. I am struggling to think of anyone in an analogous position today who has received this kind of attention.
JRKrause··on Who Smeared Richard Feynman? (2014)
"it made the newspapers because of Bell’s allegations of “extreme cruelty” by Feynman, including the notion that he spent all of his waking hours either doing calculus and playing the bongos." I find it hard to imagine a world where the eccentric behaviors and personal lives of practicing scientists would receive newspaper coverage.
JRKrause··on Simulacra and Simulation
I attempted to read this book some years ago, the writing is very nearly incomprehensible.
JRKrause··on April Unemployment Rate Rose to a Record 14.7%
This becomes especially complicated when some folks (such as myself) have, for better or worse, developed a gag reflex that is triggered by overly emotional or manipulative content. Even if we agree with the message it can be hard to willingly align yourself with people who are 'cheating' in this sense.
JRKrause··on To get good, go after the metagame
I am no means an expert but my take was that many people from grass-roots esports backgrounds balk at the numbers set by ATVI for OWL team licensing (20mil for a team iirc?) and associated player salaries (reaching upwards of 200K in some instances). Certainly in it's current state, team merch/tickets sales are nowhere close to recuperating these expenses from an investment standpoint.

I would argue that these complaints aren't understanding the 'meta' of capital investment in the current climate.

JRKrause··on Coronavirus and the blindness of authoritarianism
Is the global propagation of a contagious pathogen actually considered not that interesting? I ask because some coworkers have the same attitude and I just assumed it was them reacting to the pop-medias (assumed) obsession with it.
JRKrause··on A new model and dataset for long-range memory
Agreed that the generated sample is superior to similar outputs from GPT-2. Looking at the additional samples in the publication, my first thought is that the model cannot easily stray from or modify the context. Once a fact is stored within the compressed memory, it seems the model cannot easily generate sentences contradictory to that fact. This is problematic because frequent changes to relational information (e.g. the location a character is standing) is fundamental to story telling.
JRKrause··on Bosch Smart glasses: A tiny laser array paints images directly onto your retina
I disagree, the biggest barrier to commercialization of this technology is that it's technically infeasible. For the projection to make it through your pupil onto the retina your eye needs to be carefully aligned with the projection beam. This just barely works indoors when you pupil is hugely dilated, now imagine being outside when your pupil is contracted. It's a non-starter.
JRKrause··on Bosch Smart glasses: A tiny laser array paints images directly onto your retina
From my understanding it's just for reflecting the laser light. The lasers are shining parallel to the lens surface initially and thus need to be redirected towards the pupil, this is done with a film.
JRKrause··on Bosch Smart glasses: A tiny laser array paints images directly onto your retina
The photo you are referring to is the laser painting directly onto the sensor array of the camera.
JRKrause··on Bosch Smart glasses: A tiny laser array paints images directly onto your retina
I don't see how they can hope to overcome the alignment issue. This idea has been prototyped before, iirc carmack built a simple one during very early development of the Oculus.
JRKrause··on UFO: Pilot who spotted famous Tic Tac breaks silence after 15 years
Is there any part of this footage that can't be explained by a bit of matter stuck on the FLIR lens? Even it being apparently "cold" seems well explained by the dust/bug whatever casting a shadow onto the IR sensor array.
JRKrause··on The blood of poor Americans is now a leading export, bigger than corn or soy
Anecdotally: a new plasma donation center was constructed just by my office on high-value real-estate directly on the light-rail line. Everyone I've seen using the debit cards issued by the donation company look terribly beat.
JRKrause··on OpenAI Releases Largest GPT-2 Text Generation Model
From my observation, even the largest GPT-2 model has difficulty retaining any long-range relationship information. In the "unicorn" writing example that was published originally, the model 'forgets' where the researchers are (climbing a mountain versus being beside a lake iirc) after just a few sentences. Because of this, it's hard to imagine models of this type being able to write long-form coherent papers. Now if we could somehow constrain the generated text to conform to a predefined graph structure that isn't forgotten so quickly...
JRKrause··on I tried to adjust the time on my alarm clock
If you are really worried just drop a few dollars on spares for all the internal parts. Most everything can be found on Amazon. It's hard to imagine drying enough clothes to wear out the heater element more than three times in the average human lifespan.
JRKrause··on My own private Iceland
I'll just leave a tip for anyone planning to vacation in iceland: if you plan to visit the Blue Lagoon, try and arrive just as it opens early in the morning, preferably while it's still dark out. It will be mostly empty and this results in a far different atmosphere than the traditional "water park" feel you'll get later in the day.
JRKrause··on Dallas school district starts video game teams on 64 campuses
At least in the case of Overwatch, role queue feels more like an attempt to assure a minimum level of viability for each team and less like an authoritarian approach to controlling how the game is played.
JRKrause··on Why Japan lost its comparative advantage in producing electronic parts
This is a very new class of device so there are essentially no (relevant) competitors. This whole experience has reinforced my appreciation for Japanese produced products though.
JRKrause··on Why Japan lost its comparative advantage in producing electronic parts
The feature in question is very costly and provides increased reliability only in some situations. Integration into our product makes the feature redundant and yet...
JRKrause··on Why Japan lost its comparative advantage in producing electronic parts
A critical element of the product my current employer sells comes from a Japanese owned manufacturer. Their quality and consistency is remarkable but it's like pulling teeth trying to get them to loosen quality controls to drive out cost. Even when we would make up the loss of reliability in our own integration they remain resistant to this change.
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