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GDC7

415 karma · joined August 18, 2021

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GDC7··on The world as we know it is ending. Why are we still at work?
Lol , the world is not ending.

These are the typical exagerations of those who cannot mantain perspective .

These are the same people who scream "We are all gonna die!!!" on a plane during a small turbolence.

I wonder how would the author manage to function had she lived in the 1800s or the 1300s during the great plague.

She'd have offed herself before the plague would have a chance to infect her.

GDC7··on Worldwide approx 68M people die per year for various causes
> 503,935 Covid-19 deaths

How many of those were "Covid-19 and...."

GDC7··on Why all electric cars look the same
Lucid air, Polestar and obviously the Rivian look amazing.

Mercedes EQS did what they could with the standard shape optimizing for CX

Tesla is honestly embarassing as far as aesthetics . Both interior and esterior look so empty . They lack lines and surfaces in and out of the car...then they tried to recoup all the lack of lines and surfaces with the CypherTruck which looks like 2 or 3 boxy Volvo saloons from the 90s stacked on top of each other.

GDC7··on The current life expectancy for South Africa in 2021 is 64.38 years of age
What about rates of depression and anxiety?
GDC7··on The current life expectancy for South Africa in 2021 is 64.38 years of age
Fast turnover FTW, Africa is the future.

Especially Nigeria, Ethiopia and Tanzania.

A country thrives when its citizens aren't paralyzed by fear. As grim as it sounds having death as a constant presence realitively early compared to the West makes people less scared of it and also more willing to live fast and in an intense manner instead of just "hanging on in quiet desperation"

GDC7··on Ask HN: How can I stop worrying and start living?
OP is not 80.

OP has been very clear in expressing what he wants.

How do you think exercise will enable him to do so? As you can see from his requests he's looking for some serious luck in 3 distinctive and uncorrelated domain (longevity, wealth and family life) not to lose weight.

GDC7··on I Canceled My Birthday Party Because of Omicron
What's the point of living like this? Isn't it better to put yourself 6ft under already? There you'd not have to worry about Omicron, Delta, Beta, Alpha , Xi and whatnot.

It has been 2 years, at some point we have to remember that we originate from humans who survived the 1918 flu, the great plague part 1 and 2 , the Toba super catastrophe and each and every curve ball nature threw at us.

We are also protected by the most advanced shield we have ever conceived, many of us decided to go and overclock that shield for a 3rd time after the 2 initial ones.

At what point does the author decide that canceling his birthday party also makes sense to avoid the risk of guests having to travel to his location by car?

Roads are a huge mess, some would say a roulette, especially in winter.

It's about time we stop this collective madness. With 3 doses in one's arm and therapeautics to prevent and treat a disease which is mild to begin with...the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.

GDC7··on Ask HN: How can I stop worrying and start living?
> exercise

The exercise answer is really tiring. It became a universal remedy

If we analyze what OP is saying we can rapidly see what he wants.

Essentially he wants a long life where he gets to delay death as much as possible, live to 100 as a very rich person so he'd avoid missing out on things , stress free, and with the minimum amount of personal tragedies.

All the amount of exercise in the world won't magically summon all the luck that it's necessary to be in the 0.000000001% who can claim to be fortunate enough to satisfy all the requirements set by OP.

When the brain wants all the above and you throw at it a 20mi run...well let's say that if the brain was a person it'd look back at you and say something like :

"Do I look like an idiot? Give me what I want , not this BS run or else I'm gonna make you miserable and no amount of running will change that"

GDC7··on Melania Trump launches NFT platform
This is the piece of art being sold:

https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/1711194/MelaniasVisionNFT_F...

Never noticed that Melania had "Venus strabismus"

GDC7··on Ask HN: Hacker News, but for Finance?
> The strategies change constantly and are arb'ed away

Don't strategies change constantly and are arbitraged away in the NFL too?

And yet Tom Brady is always in the Super Bowl and is on the record for never having a losing season and 3 distincitve Hall of Fame worthy carrers.

I insist on Tom Brady because you'd never say that he looks like he knows what he's doing, even though his numbers compared to peers are even more impressive than Simons'

That's because he doesn't look the part. He looks like the lucky jock, same thing with that French lady who lived to 123, she looks like the person who simply won the genetic lottery.

Simons "looks and feels" like the elder statesman math genius who knows what he is doing. In reality him (very much like the rest of us) can't even predict what thought will he have 10 seconds into the future, let alone predict if that thought will lead to a viable idea and if that idea will lead to a successful execution and if that execution will lead to a great result.

Again if he's confident that he knows the formula to reach extreme financial success, then why doesn't he proceed to make the experiment of going back to zero or negative net worth and then try to get to top of the Forbes list again? Every billionaire claiming that luck had nothing to do with their success should do this small experiment and repeat it 10 or 20 times, in order to back their claim.

In reality Simons is so sure of not knowing that he gets paranoid when a couple of weeks go by without Medallion making money, and if a week of intense bleeding happens he just pulls the plug on Medallion, like he did during the 2007 meltdown.

GDC7··on Ask HN: Hacker News, but for Finance?
The fact that it's statistically significant doesn't mean that the people involved in the event know what they are doing.

G-intense tasks or stuff that has a g-intense reputation is often put on a pedestal but it's essentially the same as asking Tom Brady why is he in the Super Bowl every year.

He'd answer something like teamwork, good work environment and hard work...which is the exact same stuff that Simons answers when he's asked about Medallion.

It's not like the both of them have really a clue. If they did, they'd be able to fail on purpose , get back being nobodies and then regroup and get back to the top again. Repeat the cycle 10-20 times to be sure about it.

Don't know about Brady, but Simons as a man of science would try if he was 100% really sure about what's the formula for success.

In reality , not only he doesn't do that, but he pulled the plug on Medallion in 2007 during the meltdown, it's in the book.

GDC7··on Ask HN: Hacker News, but for Finance?
that's right, it can work in a reflexive manner but you never know the reason or rhyme of it so it's still a game of chance.
GDC7··on Ask HN: Hacker News, but for Finance?
> There's also a lot more to finance than stock picking.

People aren't interested in finance because of the wonders of the Fed Repo plumbing mechanisms which Zoltan of Credit Suisse explain to all of us with his reports on a weekly basis.

Saying there's more to finance than stock picking is like saying there's more to poker than the actual game.

Sure somebody has to build the poker table and deliver it to the casino but that's not where the money is at.

People look at finance as a way to escape their mediocre lives, so stock picking it is, if it's not stock picking still it's some form of concentration bet.

GDC7··on Ask HN: Hacker News, but for Finance?
Rentech doesn't try to predict where MSFT stock will be according to fundamentals, they simply looks at every other data of interest which is not MSFT stock price and they speculate:

"MSFT stock is too high/low considering that such and such has just moved and according to historical trends when such and such moves, then MSFT stock moves too"

Of course i'm simplifying.

But nobody really knows what they are doing, they are excellent at sales, Soros has achieved the same results listening to his body aches, and Buffett of course not the same results on a YoY % basis but he is working with a much larger pool of money.

At the end of the day it's like people trying to extrapolate the secrets of longevity from diet and habits. That old french lady lived to 123 smoking a pack a day till she was 100. There is no reason or rhyme to extrme outliers.

The more simple and likely explanaition is that in a large enough dataset somebody has to be a positive outlier and it just happened to be those particular people with that particular personal/professional history, and people who are blinded by the $$ are trying to replicate their success by maniacally looking at their personal/professional history and copying it.

Unfortunately copying their personal/professional history won't also include copying the luck of the statistical outlier.

GDC7··on Ask HN: Hacker News, but for Finance?
Nobody knows what the fuck they are talking about and everybody ranging from Warren Buffett to Jimmy Buffett are just winging it.

Finance is essentially psychology with 6 months weather forecasting slapped on top of it.

It's way easier to predict the fate of the Universe trillions of years from now than it is to predict where Microsoft stock will sit 4 months from now.

GDC7··on Dating Advice for Guys
> What this means is that only a few men are getting all the matches on tinder. The actual statistics, in fact, pan out this way.

But matches don't matter, even unicorns only have 24 hours in a day and 16 waking hours.

time spent having sex/cuddling/making out and sharing intimacy. That is what matters.

Of course in a perfect world you'd be the one on the receiving end of all those matches, but as I said not even unicorns can possibly take women out of circulation, it's a matter of physics and time, can't get around that.

The fact that from time to time a woman you are involved with will also be seeing or texting a unicorn can't be a reason to throw away the baby out with the bathwater.

At the end of the day it's the reason why we are anatomically shaped in the way we are, nature knew that an attractive woman would be seeing multiple men so it equipped us not to compete just physically or psychologically to secure exclusive access but also anatomically should that not be possible. Gotta trust your apparatus and your soldiers to do the job they were built to do, better than the opposition.

GDC7··on In Praise of Ponzis
> "People love a good story. And people believe that the value of this story will only increase over time."

I mean....maybe. But there has to be a moat to create some sort of limited access to the story.

The New York Yankees are an incredible story, most famous franchise in sports and located in what people refer to as the capital of the world.

Still in order to read the next chapter of the Yankees story you need to have 100$ on the side to go to the Bronx and watch it unfold.

Same thing with NFTs, when you are buying a Yankee hat you are paying royalties to the Yankees organization and every brand would fight tooth and nails to remove from the market chinese knock offs.

NFT people have embraced the concept of knockoffs because they think that the larger the distribution the more popular something would become.

Again...maybe, but human psyche is weird, as a fan I'd become suspicious if the Yankees started allwoing everybody in for free at the Yankee stadium.

If the author doesn't give a damn about protecting their work, then what does it tell you about their own perceived quality of the aforementioned work?

Sorry if there's anybody from Boston reading, the same is true for the Red Sox...kinda.

GDC7··on Ask HN: How do you cope with envy?
use envy as a propellent for your struggle.

You gotta keep going so at least you'd be making it harder for other people to succeed.

Or at least marginally harder, you'd force them to work an hour more here and 15 minutes more there

GDC7··on Income Inequality Is Big, Wealth Inequality Is 100 Times Bigger
Healthcare you mostly only need once you reach 50+ . Socializing it would send the wrong message as people have all the time in the world from 16 to 50 to have enough money to afford an health insurance
GDC7··on Ask HN: How do you cope with envy?
For this particular instance:

Your competition isn't women, it's men. Don't know if it's really a silver lining though.....if you are envious of onlyfans girls then wait until you see what Bezos makes in a minute.

Or the lifesyle of the GCC sovreigns who have the only merit of being descendants of people who fought and won for some wasteland piece of desert which ended up being extremely precious because of oil.

GDC7··on Income Inequality Is Big, Wealth Inequality Is 100 Times Bigger
The thing about wealth is that at the end of the day it's a number, it doesn't mean anything until it's converted into quality of life.

no matter a person's wealth society won't allow them to convert into personal pet projects which don't benefit or at least have the potential to benefit others.

You won't be seeing billionaires building pyramids

GDC7··on Income Inequality Is Big, Wealth Inequality Is 100 Times Bigger
It's not only billionaires, it's everybody.

> Must become negative

If everybody likes to accumulate money instead of spending and thus have the preference you mentioned then there is no way interest rates would become negative (and I mean really negative not the couple of tenth of a percent).

Money is a human abstraction, and thus it's inherently political, the most unpopular thing out there is inflation and negative interest rates. You have 100% people against it. Inflation is possibly more unpoular than a recession because it raises alarm bells in the populace even in absence of a recession.

At least with taxation it's something like 80-20 and the only thing which is a matter of discussion is how much taxation needs to be imposed and how to spend tax money (Republicans want to direct them towards the military and defense, whereas democrats want to direct them towards social spending and welafare)

It's a cultural thing, but even old people with few years left are all about accumulation, you'd need some sort of common shock such as young people and adults in their 40s collectively have a close call that would force them to evaluate their mortality and prompt them to structure their finances to "die with zero or negative net worth)

GDC7··on Income Inequality Is Big, Wealth Inequality Is 100 Times Bigger
> None of those things you listed represent “quality of life” in any capacity. I highly doubt anyone who’s working two jobs/60h weeks is spending too much time thinking about driving a sports car for one weekend a year.

As much as people don't want to hear it money is meant to be spent, only the perverse hedonic treadmill effect brought us in this scenario where it's used to keep the score

> They’re thinking that they just want a day off and that it would be great if their multi multi billionaire employer would give up some of his obscene and ultimately pointless wealth and pay them a decent wage.

Again, the gap has never been smaller. People rage would be justified if the process were to be in reverse or even slowing down, but it's only accelerating, we have just witnessed it.

A person in the same age cohort as Bill Gates, received the COVID vaccine at the same time as him or maybe a couple of days earlier or later than him.

It's unheard of in the history of the human specie

GDC7··on Income Inequality Is Big, Wealth Inequality Is 100 Times Bigger
quality of life gap on the other hand has never been smaller.

Some points off the top of my head

1) People live essentially as long as billionaires

2) You can hop on a 430M dollar plane which is the same as Biden's (actually there's good chance it's newer than Air Force One) for as low as 500$ with the only cavet that you have to share it with 400 other people

3) You can enter in a building costing 5-10 billions of dollars (think the big Vegas hotels) for free, again only cavet is that you have to share it with 2500-5000 people

4) You can drive cars costing a million dollars and it would only cost you a tiny fraction of that, hopping once a year in a Ferrari or a Lamborghini for the weekend is not far fetched

5) You have basically every means and financial product tailored to achieve your goals including all the above, ranging from lease to rent to financing purchases of electronics and vacations.

Of course hedonic treadmill never stops so nothwistanding all the above the huge source of worry nowdays is the result of the following subtraction: Bill Gates' number - people's own number. It's an ego thing essentially

I agree that people who are perceived as winners taking all such as Gates, Bezos and quack Musk should not say these things because it would exacerbate the above sentiments instead of disengaging it as it comes off as patronizing winners telling the population how they should feel.

But regular people should go through the process on their own , when this process of self discovery happens you both start to ignore the billionaires and also those who hope to socially elevate themselves by promising to "eat the rich" such as Sanders , AOC and the like.

GDC7··on Dating Advice for Guys
> But for a one night stand women will approach the unicorn. This is the mode groupies are sort of operating under.

I have never seen this happen in real life with 0 alcohol involvement except for groupies in the music/film industry.

Most I have seen is that they try to show off and hangout in the very proximity, hoping that an organic conversation ensues, but they won't offer to buy a drink or be direct about it.

GDC7··on Dating Advice for Guys
But they are still receptive, not pro-active.

If gigachad is messaging her then they'd shoo you away at the bar and immerse themselves in the texting, otherwise the game stays the same, they have a protective mechanism which prevent them from getting too invested if a male doesn't provide them attention (regardless of power and attractiveness and fame)

Nature installed this mechanism because even though gigachad is everything, and you are just something...it's better to get 100% of something than 0% of everything.

It goes back to the African praries where it was necessary to also secure resources and protection for pregnancy and later on, not just healthy sperm

GDC7··on Dating Advice for Guys
> Many people (men especially) think they want lots of money. They don't. What they want is happiness.

It's not about the money, it's about the winning, money is just the trophy

The process is:

Winning > money trophy > brain juices > inflating ego > happiness

GDC7··on Dating Advice for Guys
> What women think they want and what they actually want are two different things.

> Women find power attractive

This is peculiar because both statements are true but the first one trumps the second.

They find power attractive but they also can't approach to save their lives, so at least some minimal work still has to be done by the man, regardless of his power.

Obama in 2008 at the peak of his popularity was also a pretty tall dude with blinding white teeth and an ability to mix and match Harvard vernacular and speaking to people's hearts

Could have had any woman in America but besides hanging out in his proximity and maybe try to show off some skin, no woman in America would approach him.

That's a reason why I think those guys trying to subvert the laws of romantic approach and be chased instead of chasing are looking to become unicorns. Groupies are the only women who approach and it's a rare phenomenon limited to the music industry and movies.

GDC7··on Dating Advice for Guys
> i had maybe one or two rejections at all

Seems to me a failure to approach at the bar. After an intial approach (which could also be rejected outright) maybe 10 minutes will pass before the moment of truth comes and you either get the number or not see each other again. At least in big cities like NYC, LA, Chicago..that's the most frequent scenario as far as nightlife is concerned.

Not getting the number=rejection

> if he's the guy that is a symbol of success for you (even metaphorically) in this domain then ho boy you have bigger problems than just dating.

Well, luck plays a huge role in every person life..that said if you think Cam Newton is a failure where are your 100M dollar for "working" in the NFL playing football?

And of course I imagine he had so many partners he lost count (and also being sexualized by a good % of the millions of women follower he has on INstagram)

Again lots of it is luck, but it cannot be said that Cam Newton is not lving his best life according to objective metrics.

GDC7··on Dating Advice for Guys
> Confidence that you're just fine on your own is waaay more important

If that's the pitch to your ego, it'd quickly rebut : "then why are you going through all the rejections with the associated pain which makes me suffer so bad?"

> Worst thing in my life was when i came off as desperate

Do you think those who try and win the World Cup or the Super Bowl or even a get a loan or VC investment perceive themselves in the same way?

The above goals are not unlike a healthy dating life. As a rule of thumb if it only happens with dating, then it's in your head and you have to find a way to justify constant failures in order to keep swinging for the fences and not demoralize yourself with thoughts such as "coming off as despearate".

Cam Newton would not define himself as coming off as desperate for trying to win the Super Bowl, neither would Lionel Messi in his World Cup quest, Djokovic for the grand slam , you name it...dating isn't different, except of course the Lombardi Trophy can't publicly humiliate you with insults in the middle of the club or at the bar.

But the few men who can practice transient objectification won't be hearing insults either as they have the capability of failing fast, blocking insults out , keep moving and keep swinging for the fences

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