Rentech doesn't try to predict where MSFT stock will be according to fundamentals, they simply looks at every other data of interest which is not MSFT stock price and they speculate:

"MSFT stock is too high/low considering that such and such has just moved and according to historical trends when such and such moves, then MSFT stock moves too"

Of course i'm simplifying.

But nobody really knows what they are doing, they are excellent at sales, Soros has achieved the same results listening to his body aches, and Buffett of course not the same results on a YoY % basis but he is working with a much larger pool of money.

At the end of the day it's like people trying to extrapolate the secrets of longevity from diet and habits. That old french lady lived to 123 smoking a pack a day till she was 100. There is no reason or rhyme to extrme outliers.

The more simple and likely explanaition is that in a large enough dataset somebody has to be a positive outlier and it just happened to be those particular people with that particular personal/professional history, and people who are blinded by the $$ are trying to replicate their success by maniacally looking at their personal/professional history and copying it.

Unfortunately copying their personal/professional history won't also include copying the luck of the statistical outlier.