131 karma · joined June 6, 2021
The parameters of the Bitcoin code are changeable (and have changed multiple times since inception) via hard-fork based on the 'voting' of the nodes which verify all new blocks and number in the tens of thousands distributed across the globe. The parameters of the protocol are set such that anyone can run a verification node on only a couple hundred dollars worth of hardware, thereby encouraging decentralization.
https://river.com/learn/can-bitcoins-hard-cap-of-21-million-...
Energy storage is inefficient and expensive, so a new renewable project based around this is less likely to be funded and built than one that can directly monetize the excess. Profit and greed is the incentive structure for much of human society.
Bitcoin has all of the properties we need in a store of value for the base layer of a digital monetary system of the future. The energy expenditure is required to provide the highest level of security and decentralization which is needed for a global reserve asset. Any other system is vulnerable to attack or centralization, which will inevitably succumb to human greed like every fiat system in history.
I was never that interested in monetary policy or the history of money until I found out about Bitcoin and started doing my own research.
Regarding energy use, Bitcoin mining inherently seeks out the lowest cost electricity which turns out to be either stranded energy (not usable for anything else) or renewable (solar, wind, hydro). This is yet another reason to push governments to stop subsidizing fossil fuels. Also, since Bitcoin mining can be done at any time and in any place, it is able to act as the buyer of last resort for renewable projects whose energy production does not line up with grid demand. Having this extra buyer can greatly reduce the payback period for a proposed solar/wind project that otherwise would not have been able to attract the investment to build it.
Obviously you need to assume there will be motor-out situations in any eVTOL design and the system needs to handle this with full payload over the flight envelope needed for a safe landing. Lilium has the advantage of many propulsion systems to take over the lost thrust, but many other eVTOLs are questionable here.
The same thinking has to be applied throughout the entire aircraft design (electrical and mechanical) and then you need to test, test, test. Each failure mode, using full payload over the full flight envelope, stability testing under differing weather conditions, the list goes on. To give you a rough idea, having a flying prototype is great but once you are comfortable enough with the design to put in a test pilot under controlled, monitored, and ideal conditions, you are maybe 20% of the way towards something you can responsibly put into service. If you want to see a simple design, check out the Opener Blackfly.
There are various paths to economic viability for an eVTOL aircraft but I don't see how Lilium's current prototype fits into any of them. Unlike an ultralight design, it will require a certified pilot to chauffer passengers around until the day when full automation moves into the aviation space. Other than selling as an extravagant toy, this limits it to air taxi service. The design is complex so will be very expensive to buy and to maintain, so I don't see it as an improvement over existing helicopters beyond the 'green' energy source and claimed lower noise.
I am familiar with the Moller SkyCar. Lots of promises were made and broken, and lots of money burned on that project. Many modern eVTOL concepts suffer from the same basic design flaw: forward flight hanging from small propellers is inefficient. If you care about range, you need the lift of a large airfoil. Moller also had stability issues, but the responsiveness of electric propulsion and the advances in IMUs have solved this problem.
I think you can have a viable eVTOL product without a hot-swappable battery in the same way that electric cars have shown.
The eVTOL space is currently seeing a Cambrian explosion of different design concepts, but the first to see economic viability I think will be the simpler ones.