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001sky

14,226 karma · joined August 20, 2012

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001sky··on Tell HN: Clickable domains and other new features for story quality
agree...good discovery tool

between /new and /firstpage

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edit: hope sw prevents prs/upvote rings from abusing)

001sky··on Tell HN: Clickable domains and other new features for story quality
Even if the don't collapse, It might be nice to see first level comments have some kind of distinguishing visual context...to get to another thought... eg, comment number 2,3 etc...is ofetn buried under 1.1.1.1.1.1.1.4 sub comment discusion minutia....when a top comment has 30 or 40 sub comments.

you should be able to scroll a page and pick out the top 5 original comments...even without collapsing...

001sky··on Tell HN: Clickable domains and other new features for story quality
I think a small bibliography type feature would be interesting. so, a story on topic X hits the front page. instead of killing the next 5 stories on topic X, find a way to cite 2-5 as bibliography on topic X.

Point is, the first story on topic X has a random element. killing all other stories leads to monoculture.

legitimate issue is having 5 / 30 front page stories be topic X drowns out other discussion. solution is to have the bibliography become deeper...rather than spam the front page with the bilbiolgraphy-type stories.

001sky··on Why Is Europe Failing to Create More $1B Startups?
"That's true of any startup"

no, not really. its only true specific contexts. which was the point of the previous comment. but you're right in the second part, that's sort of a confidence game...success begets success.

001sky··on Welcome to the Block Party: The internet after ad blocking
Such better ads are not patented, and switching to pleasant text ads like the industry leaders leaders did would make ad blockers a marginal phenomenon.

The risk is that advertising would also become a marginal phenomenon.

001sky··on It's been 500 years since California has been this dry
Just FYI, Utah (Desert) had the 2nd largest month of rain in itsrecorded history already this year. All that says is armchair weather prediction is silly.
001sky··on Elite scientists are more likely to have a hobby in the arts and crafts
Need to control for the correlation of financial privledge and experience.

Its a huge leap to conclude "showing great passion" for something is equivalent to talent. I would say in photography, the industry is supported by two main business models: (1) supporting ad-driven media; and (2) dentist-level dilletante hobbyists. The actual scale of (3) "true artists" as in art-gallery-collector level is staggeringly small. However, it is the work of (3) that really drives (1) and (2).

Relatedly, it's a very difficult leap to correlate the various composites of "accomplished" with skill or underlying quality. Its not at all difficult to gain large followers on modern media platforms for reasons not at all relying on "quality".

Asymetric access to information will almost always trump "talent" whatever that is when it comes to media-driven distribution networks. It doesn't matter if it is "writing" or "reportage (photography)", if you have information that is not widely available otherwise people will 'like' it, 'follow it' or 'pay' for it. This is a simple cost-benefit analysis by the consumer (its easier and cheaper to consume the experience via media than by actual-real-world means). It says nothing really of the skill underlying the product...the talent of the "writing" or the quality of the "photography" can be quite incidental to the consumer who lacks the relevant choices (this is the asymetric information distribution at play).

This is why for the most part, journalists and pj's are not considered part of the artistic pantheon despite their widespread popularity...until they cross over using other formats (eg long-form/anthologies, published works, gallery exibitions etc).

The point being that weath and asymmetric information are higly correlated, emprically.

Wealth and artisinal-skill or artistic talent, not obviously, but in any even much more loosely, so.

001sky··on Apple Unveils the iPad Pro
The issues is more... 'he was for it, before he was against it'...
001sky··on Don’t Build a Billion-Dollar Business
This has nothing to do with YC. The math just doesnt agree with your argument.
001sky··on Don’t Build a Billion-Dollar Business
This is delusional survivorship bias. Its like saying Churchill would have gone around starting world wars, to prove he could rise to the occasion. Had hitler not done it for him. etc.
001sky··on How fixed-gear bikes can confuse Google’s self-driving cars
"But the track stand, which are generally done only by riders on fixed-gear bikes, quickly became a problem."

Track stand on reg bike no problem. So that's a problem.

001sky··on A former Google exec on how to make tough decisions quickly
In most (large) firms it takes a week to have/schedule a meeting with those people. Most small firms don't have that amount of experience, or if they do its not accross a very broad base. So part of the story is about access to people, there is an extra layer of gatekeeping in there, by necessity needed to make sure those people are being used effectively.
001sky··on YC Stats
No, its not a bad comparison. Any decent investment vehicle is not putting money out the door unless they are clearing 20% in their base case returns. The point is you expressly RAROC the two portfolios. A retail investor is not going to look at any of this as relevant, so avoiding leverage is pointless. Anyone benchmarking this asset class has access to leverage (and in this market, at low yields).
001sky··on China Sells U.S. Treasuries to Support Yuan
Are you asking about china's economy as a whole or the impact on the us/oecd? i think that makes a difference in how best to answer the question.
001sky··on China Sells U.S. Treasuries to Support Yuan
this is a double post of your own post https://news.ycombinator.com/reply?id=10129397
001sky··on China Sells U.S. Treasuries to Support Yuan
lowering demand for us paper means higher interest rates. higher interest rates in the us means devaluation of foreign (non us currency), all other things equal.

us is going to slow gdp when interest rates go up (look at fed...they are scared). so this is basically a stealth currency deval and a shot accross the bow to obama (sitting admin will take the hit if gdp in us goes south).

typically, this is crytpic and below the radar type of stuff but almost certainly is meant to broadcast a message.

just my $0.02.

001sky··on The Best Jobs Now Require You to Be a People Person
every article that compares people who hold job 'x' with the percentage of the population with trait 'z' makes the very assumption you are blind too. the issue is like wondering why sprinters and endurance athletes are no evenly distributed at the olympics in the various events. (eg, a marathoner is not a crap athlete because they cannot sprint).

xx and xy simply puts different brain chemistry at work. it doesn't mean that the variation disqualifies anyone from anything. the issue is much, much more subtle (like fast twitch vs slow twich muscles in athletes).

oversimplyin it simply makes a mockery of understanding & analysis.

the fact that you use 'brute strength' as an obvious irrelevant characteristic seems to play into this ignorance. ('brute strentgh' doesn't even matter amongst most athletes in most endeavors, at best its a gating criteria, but again what about endurance vs speed vs hand-eye co-ordination vs tactial application of effort?).

...and there's loads of science if you are bored

001sky··on YC Stats
20-30% irr is not very high given the risk involved. a lower risk portfolio that is leveraged can give you this return quite easily (in a mechanical sense). in that case you have or take a low-risk low return investment and add risk and return by adding say 10x leverage to a 3% return.

In this case, the more relevant number is $$ in and $$ out. and also the optionality to continue the business going forward. That is what seperates the two cases out, and arguably make the one quite distinct from the latter.

001sky··on Tesla owner drives 452 miles on single charge
so, basically slower than a pro on a bicycle

nice one

001sky··on The Case for Teaching Ignorance
yeah, not sure that last line fits at all

in the 20th century lots of new material

its importatnt to study the room to grow in every subject

and to constrast the positive space of what is know

with the negative space of what is not

most expertise is simply the ignorance of the unlearned

who hold certain people on pedastals because they don't

know better...think of doctors in the pre-civil war days

would the be considered "experts" today? highly questionable

yet they were the best resources that time/place could muster

every startup is exploring negative space in the market...that's growth potential

a new biz might be intelligent design, but that has nothing to do with evo bio

etc...

doctors are also scientists and biz people and human

And an 18th century doctors is no less a scientist because of his ignorance;

it doesn't make darwin a 'creationist' because he doesn't understand relativity or nuclear physics

obviously absurd example of course

001sky··on Let Students Sell Equity in Their Higher-Education to Finance It
equity is like debt, but you can write it off (when the biz fails). The better solution would be to allow student debt to be written off. That's a much cleaner solution.
001sky··on Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows
testing (a) trading strategy in a short window ... why?
001sky··on Met Office loses BBC weather forecasting contract after 93 years
One needs to account for relative humidity, which the ocean provides. Much of the US landmass between the pacific crestline and the rocky mountains is arid desert (from the canadian border to mexico). Second, there exist ocean-specific dynamics like el-nino, which don't really have an overland anolog.
001sky··on Financial Misstatements
The nuance is that the SEC prosecutes under the civil code by default.

https://www.sec.gov/News/Article/Detail/Article/135612578701...

001sky··on Financial Misstatements
"This is a felony."

This is probably a too-broad-brush use of the word.

Other than that, I like this essay.

People should be taught financial literacy early and accurately. Like learning maths notation: It's useful, compact and efficient. But...it must be precisely grasped/implemented to be of any benefit to speaker or the audience.

001sky··on A New Aristocracy [pdf]
This is narrowly true, but broadly false. The concept of 'white privledge' relates to the concept of 'white man's burden', which is european in origin. Nobody debates that indians, japanese, and other asian societies aren't highly adept at elitism.
001sky··on Why do we turn the music down when parking?
hand-eye co-ordination has a timing element. that timing element is based off of emipirical sampling from the environment. music is also structured in time, but it pollutes the time-sampling process when you do something like parralel park with limited visibility.the brain doesn't have enough bandwidth to process incomplete information sets (parking) and embellished information sets (music) at the same time.

TLDR: music is distracting (in this context)

001sky··on Russia bans Reddit
This makes the point that reddit is either willful or negligent quite forcefully. Under broad legal doctrine, "ignorance is no excuse" for non-compliance with lawful regulation. So its probably too strong an anology to be relevant. Its pointless to assume innocence or exoneration without more substantial information. Reality is most likely somewhere in the middle.
001sky··on G is for Google
While you are right in your comment, in so far as what you have written, the implication that [this] "reorganization makes no difference on the financials" is not strictly speaking true.

Going forward, this re-organization may very well allow capital allocation to be done at various legal entities a-la project or structured finance. That way, the risk/return of the various projects can be traded on more efficiently to the benefit of both investors and google/alphabet shareholders.

This is relevant in the larger context for asset intensive, long-time maturity investment areas --like fiber, self driving cars, etc -- that have fundamentally different economics than the core business (search/ads/youtube etc).

001sky··on Vancouver’s high-tech hurdle: Attracting top-level talent
Real estate is weird. Easy to have absentee owners. Easy to house money not people. Etc.
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