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Laptops were supposed to kill the desktop, but they're still around

Nice comment. I'd add one thing, which I wrote more about here: http://jseliger.wordpress.com/2011/10/09/desktop-pcs-arent-g... : people still like desktops because they're really cheap. In terms of dollars per megahertz (or most "dollars per X" measurement one might want to use) they're the cheapest way to get the most bang for your buck.

They're also easier to repair and upgrade. Most people probably don't, but the option is nice.

They're also designed to stay in one place, which is nice for offices vs finding that people have re-arranged them all over the place and a bunch are missing.

You can also hold a store of spare computers and spare monitors/keyboards and swap out ones that are broken, repair and then return to circulation. This would be harder and more expensive with laptops.

To summarize what you're saying in a sentence, desktops are a boon for IT departments.

People often miss this factor, but an office full of desktops on a Windows Active Directory domain is probably the easiest way to manage a large office's computing experience.

People often cite compatibility with legacy applications as the reason most offices are windows based, but in reality this is less true every day, as a most offices are heavily reliant on web services (for instance, my office uses a corporate GMail as opposed to MS Outlook).

Features like Active Directory are Microsoft's real footholds, IMHO.

> A big question of concern for electronics manufacturers is: What's next? Once tablets start lasting for years and years, what is the next big thing that will let them keep growing sales?

It seems as though people are hoping wearables will become the next big thing. If the UI, battery life, and independence (i.e., making them usable without needing a phone) can be sorted out, I think it's a possibility. But the margins will be much smaller.

Wearables seem to be more about sensors versus where people spend their time with media, doing work, or socializing.

There hasn't been any margin in PCs in many years.

For large enterprise purchases, Dell/HP/etc takes losses and makes its money via kickbacks from Intel.

My guess is that wearable stuff would be higher margin, and tied to super high margin services.

>>But the margins will be much smaller.

Thats hard to predict, for example what are the margins for $200 laptops at Walmart?

The focus will have to turn to apps. New types of apps that make our tablets more useful. Apple is positioned to make a lot of money from this; their 30% cut on all app purchases is substantial. The growth of apps may drive the development of more powerful tablets up to a point where every tablet can satisfy 99.9% of your computing needs, as is the case with laptops and desktops today. We're not quite there yet, but we may be there in a few years.

Maybe I'm contrarian, cynical, and/or old, but I never fully understood the compulsion to advance an alternative mobile ecosystem in the form of iOS and Android -- at least not with the mission of eradicating OSX, Linux, Windows on laptops.

A tablet with a keyboard is a poor laptop replacement -- slow, limited, and in an awkward form factor.

Most "native apps" are CRUD apps that are better on mobile than web apps mainly just because mobile web browsers need to improve. (Admittedly possible big exception to that: Games.)

So if, after a couple years of experimenting, it turns out many people don't love tablets as laptop replacements, after all? I think -- that's fine. Experiment done. It didn't pan out. Let it go. Let's move the effort back to improving and innovating with "conventional" laptops and OSs, as well as trying things more inherently new like wearables or whatever.

I understand that each generation wants to reinvent all the wheels, but it seems like an unfortunate, wasteful diversion of resources.

Agreed.

I find tablets have a few niche uses which may continue to warrant new tablet development, but I really don't see the desire to push them into the role of "main computational device" for the majority of users.

I own a tablet that hasn't had the WiFi turned on in over a year. I use it exclusively as an e-reader (soon, I may just buy a proper e-reader). I think these devices have a place, but I'm not going to code on it, or write my cover letter on it. People need to stop telling me I should be able to, because even if I could, I wouldn't want to!

Coding is quite possible on a tablet, especially if we can develop tablet friendly programming languages [1]; but we definitely aren't there yet! If you think about, programmers spend more time thinking and choosing abstractions than typing in code (and no one codes at more than 20 words-per-minute, while this is mostly bursty). For any kind of real writing, one needs a mechanical IBM Model M keyboard, at least :)

> People need to stop telling me I should be able to, because even if I could, I wouldn't want to!

Well, I still carry a laptop in my bag at least. Tablets are great in bed and on planes.

[1] http://research.microsoft.com/apps/pubs/default.aspx?id=1793...

> one needs a mechanical IBM Model M keyboard

While better than a rubber dome keyboard for sure, I think I'm one of the few people out there that prefers the Cherry MX switches over the oldschool buckling spring.

MX Browns with the o-ring mod (as to not disturb my office mates) is a dream to type on.

> Laptops were supposed to kill the desktop, but they're still around.

They are almost completely dead in consumer. I'm hopping 2X displays will change that; its crazy that my laptop's 13" screen has more resolution than a desktop 27" display! Also, I move a lot, and not having a desktop is really useful in that regard (though, once I can procure a nice high resolution large display, it might be worth it).

> years if they're not deliberately hamstrung by soldered on batteries, etc..

You mean molded batteries right? Just like with tablets, it is difficult to include a modular battery if you want to use space and weight efficiently.

> What's next?

VR, wearables, wall mounted e-paper based computers, etc... I don't think we'll reach a point where our computing experience remains stable for a while (at least, I hope so).

By that logic smartphones haven't really killed the feature phones either.