Tablets Are Not Killing Laptops
iafrikan.com
iafrikan.com
Tablets, at present, are almost all underpowered. Even the performance king, the Surface 3, reportedly doesn't have quite enough horse-power to push its newly expanded stable of pixels. For this reason, tablet sales are going to remain hot for a few years at least, even if tablets claim relatively few hours of use versus laptops or computers.
A big question of concern for electronics manufacturers is: What's next? Once tablets start lasting for years and years, what is the next big thing that will let them keep growing sales?
It seems as though people are hoping wearables will become the next big thing. If the UI, battery life, and independence (i.e., making them usable without needing a phone) can be sorted out, I think it's a possibility. But the margins will be much smaller.
Thats hard to predict, for example what are the margins for $200 laptops at Walmart?
For large enterprise purchases, Dell/HP/etc takes losses and makes its money via kickbacks from Intel.
My guess is that wearable stuff would be higher margin, and tied to super high margin services.
A tablet with a keyboard is a poor laptop replacement -- slow, limited, and in an awkward form factor.
Most "native apps" are CRUD apps that are better on mobile than web apps mainly just because mobile web browsers need to improve. (Admittedly possible big exception to that: Games.)
So if, after a couple years of experimenting, it turns out many people don't love tablets as laptop replacements, after all? I think -- that's fine. Experiment done. It didn't pan out. Let it go. Let's move the effort back to improving and innovating with "conventional" laptops and OSs, as well as trying things more inherently new like wearables or whatever.
I understand that each generation wants to reinvent all the wheels, but it seems like an unfortunate, wasteful diversion of resources.
I find tablets have a few niche uses which may continue to warrant new tablet development, but I really don't see the desire to push them into the role of "main computational device" for the majority of users.
I own a tablet that hasn't had the WiFi turned on in over a year. I use it exclusively as an e-reader (soon, I may just buy a proper e-reader). I think these devices have a place, but I'm not going to code on it, or write my cover letter on it. People need to stop telling me I should be able to, because even if I could, I wouldn't want to!
> People need to stop telling me I should be able to, because even if I could, I wouldn't want to!
Well, I still carry a laptop in my bag at least. Tablets are great in bed and on planes.
[1] http://research.microsoft.com/apps/pubs/default.aspx?id=1793...
While better than a rubber dome keyboard for sure, I think I'm one of the few people out there that prefers the Cherry MX switches over the oldschool buckling spring.
MX Browns with the o-ring mod (as to not disturb my office mates) is a dream to type on.
Nice comment. I'd add one thing, which I wrote more about here: http://jseliger.wordpress.com/2011/10/09/desktop-pcs-arent-g... : people still like desktops because they're really cheap. In terms of dollars per megahertz (or most "dollars per X" measurement one might want to use) they're the cheapest way to get the most bang for your buck.
They're also easier to repair and upgrade. Most people probably don't, but the option is nice.
You can also hold a store of spare computers and spare monitors/keyboards and swap out ones that are broken, repair and then return to circulation. This would be harder and more expensive with laptops.
People often miss this factor, but an office full of desktops on a Windows Active Directory domain is probably the easiest way to manage a large office's computing experience.
People often cite compatibility with legacy applications as the reason most offices are windows based, but in reality this is less true every day, as a most offices are heavily reliant on web services (for instance, my office uses a corporate GMail as opposed to MS Outlook).
Features like Active Directory are Microsoft's real footholds, IMHO.
They are almost completely dead in consumer. I'm hopping 2X displays will change that; its crazy that my laptop's 13" screen has more resolution than a desktop 27" display! Also, I move a lot, and not having a desktop is really useful in that regard (though, once I can procure a nice high resolution large display, it might be worth it).
> years if they're not deliberately hamstrung by soldered on batteries, etc..
You mean molded batteries right? Just like with tablets, it is difficult to include a modular battery if you want to use space and weight efficiently.
> What's next?
VR, wearables, wall mounted e-paper based computers, etc... I don't think we'll reach a point where our computing experience remains stable for a while (at least, I hope so).
Poorly conceived on every level.
Point is nowadays most websites try really hard to get in the way between visitor and content to push for some pointless marketing. Disabling javascript or at least third party javascript is the modern popup blocker.
Maybe give a try to noscript or requestpolicy with firefox, no advice for opera which used to be something but now is just a skin for google chrome, speaking of which if you're using google chrome you deserve to suffer through overlays.
I've been running a Surface Pro 2 since February and I can say that this is a very mature product. It has replaced my quad core laptop with 24GB RAM because it handles exactly what I need.
I'm running PHP Storm, Photoshop, 2 x 1080p displays + the surface display, Virtual Box with 2-3 Ubuntu VMs running, all while using Skype, Spotify, Backblaze, Google Drive, etc, etc.
It's better than any Apple product that I've ever owned. Instead of forcing opinionated workflows on me and artificially limiting my options, I get to work the way that I want to and if I need Unix, it's running in a VM.
The RT really should have never existed, it's a horrible mark on the Surface line.
I really don't get the love of the Pro though. They are heavy and don't get good battery life. That's fine for a laptop thing, but not for a tablet. And because of the compromises necessary to make it both, it just strikes me as a poor laptop and a poor tablet.
A change in CPU architecture has a much wider impact. Windows on ARM cannot run all the legacy windows applications. That definitely "not the same thing" when you need those applications.
When Apple moved from PowerPC to Intel, my next Mac meant I had to throw out hundreds of pounds worth of software because, "they are not the same thing" and Final Cut Pro PowerPC version didn't not emulate on Intel.
Yes it's heavy compared to other tablets, but far more comfortable in a tablet environment than any laptop.
They arbitrarily disallowed anyone else from doing the same thing. This is what killed RT. It's a computer that they gimped so that they could call it an appliance.
So what? Nobody was even talking about RT, but besides that - Apple does the same thing with OS X - it can run on any Intel architecture but I'm artificially limited to running it on Apple's outmoded and overpriced hardware.
Can we get back to discussing the awesome Surface Pro though? Because that's the machine that represents the future of computing, not the RT and not any Apple device that I can think of. Regarding the battery life (on the Pro) - you couldn't be more wrong. Have you actually used one for 7-8 hours? That's about what I get on my original Surface Pro and the battery life has only gotten better in the newer models.
Although it's now possibly large for a tablet, it's nicer to use than the first and second generation models since it's lighter and thinner.
The Macbook Air or my cheap four year old Samsung almostultrabook, on the other hand, are far more competent than tablets at most things, but no good at actually being a tablet on the rare occasions that touchscreens are useful or the laptop form factor gets in the way.
Are there any sources for these 2 claims? Neither follow immediately from the (sourced) claim that tablet sales are slowing - nor are they obvious.
I use my ipad 3 for pulling up info when I don't want to move. Watching a movie and wonder who that actor is, that sort of thing.
But for normal, consistent use? not really.
Catch up, Apple. You used to innovate. If 10.10 is another nightmare for my dev environment like Mavericks and the recent xcode updates the decision will be even easier.
I'm surprised that Apple hasn't locked down xcode to only be installed on specific devices, like MBPs and Mac Pros. That would be a huge slap in the face but I can totally see it happening if doing what I mentioned above becomes more popular.
Personally I'd rather just code for the web and be as OS agnostic as possible, html5 and javascript
I don't want a Yoga, that's the same old convertible laptop we've had for years. I want the entire screen to detach and become semi-portable. And I want the keyboard dock to have a big battery in it, so the tablet can run for 10 hours and as a laptop it can run for 15 or 20 hours.
Why is that not a thing?
But why not just have two devices? When you detach the keyboard you practically do have two devices, but one of them is useless. This is my guess as to why this hasn't really taken off - because the keyboard doesn't fold itself into another dimension when you don't want to use it.
I would ask: but why have two devices? Why have a laptop and a tablet with separate storage and settings, when you can have a laptop and a tablet with the same storage and the same settings, just a different interface depending on the use case?
They keyboard doesn't fold into another dimension, but it does detach. On things like the Yoga, the keyboard doesn't fold into another dimension, it folds against the screen, making the tablet much thicker and heavier than it needs to be. At least with the Transformer T100 the keyboard can just go away.
There's some convenience to not having to sync data between devices, which is why a lot of people ditched their desktops when 10 or 15 years ago it started to become affordable to get desktop-like power in a laptop form factor.
What you describe looks a lot like one of those old thinkpad x series tablet + ultrabase. Only difference is the keyboard is not detachable but the screen rotates to get on top of it and you get to use the computer operating system of your choice.
But the point of a Transformer T100 is that you don't have to choose. It's not a tablet + a keyboard, it's a PC that detaches from the keyboard. I love my Thinkpad Tablet 2, but the biggest problem is to turn it into a laptop, I need a desk (not a lap). 2-in-1 convertibles solve that issue. It's the best of both worlds.
to be honest, i don't see anything in everyday office work requires more computing power than what iPad offers. Most heavy-lifting computation will (if not yet) be done on cloud.
in fact, I'd argue the single thing blocks the transition from laptops to tablets is the ridiculous long review process Apple imposes. It mandates a 1-week per iteration of software evolution rate. how many startups can live with it?
We've seen plenty of innovation during that period in the laptop market. Entry level machines haven't changed a lot, but they cost half as much. At the high-end, much of the focus has been on size, weight and design. The Macbook Air, when it first came out in 2008 was pretty revolutionary. Then, a laptop was considered thin if it was under an inch thick. Now it's common to hear people protest that they couldn't possibly lug around anything so bulky.
Maybe these aren't the kinds of innovations you care about. I'm with you there, and a lot of the features I'd like to have aren't even available, but there has been considerable progress.
I think the other thing it's really killing laptops is people who didn't want to buy one in the first place. There are a lot of people who just wanted a portable computer they could use to play around on the Internet. They were the people drawn in by $300 laptop, since laptops no longer needed to cost thousands of dollars. But now that you can get a smaller lighter tablet that's easier to use for about the cost of a poor netbook that market has mostly dried up. At this point people who are buying laptops are people who need real computers. Just like desktop sales are down, but are still purchased by the people who need to power and don't mind immobility.
Another way to phrasal this might be "the laptop bad fad is over".