The problem with logic like that is that even suspending disbelief and accepting the 10% chance, a discount rate needs to be applied. Risk-adjusted returns are getting entirely ignored.

If they have a 10% to turn into Tencent tomorrow, at 10% chance there is some value. If we are talking about 5-10 years down the line, a reasonable discount rate like 25% puts the $100B of future value at something like $10-30B. Suddenly a 10% isn't even close to good enough.

This ignores the extremely unlikelihood that consumers in the US monetize the same way as in China to even reach a similar market cap (Tencent has higher top-line than Facebook).