This explains why Snapchat walked away from $3 billion dollars. If you have a VCs mindset and even have a 10% belief in that bull market, then the offer was too low.
This explains why Snapchat walked away from $3 billion dollars. If you have a VCs mindset and even have a 10% belief in that bull market, then the offer was too low.
First, gaming consoles are illegal in China. Second, Chinese people prefer to pirate rather than to buy software. Third, Facebook is blocked by the Great Firewall of China.
This means that Tencent faces no competition from console games, from packaged PC games, or from Zynga and clones. Thus, Tencent gets to collect a large percentage of the total gaming dollars (or rather, yuan) spent in China.
What's the likelihood of Snapchat getting game consoles and Facebook banned in the United States?
Does Snapchat really have a 10% chance of turning into the next Tencent? Or is it more like 1%? Or 0.1%?
Unofficially, who knows what the real reason is? It certainly hasn't hurt Tencent, whose market cap is now greater than that of Sony + Nintendo combined.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/07/us-china-gamescons...
If they have a 10% to turn into Tencent tomorrow, at 10% chance there is some value. If we are talking about 5-10 years down the line, a reasonable discount rate like 25% puts the $100B of future value at something like $10-30B. Suddenly a 10% isn't even close to good enough.
This ignores the extremely unlikelihood that consumers in the US monetize the same way as in China to even reach a similar market cap (Tencent has higher top-line than Facebook).
Teens sexting tool vs legitimate messaging service adoption by demographic that can afford the add ons.
apples and oranges imo.