I was in the room for Thiel's talk - I found that there were certainly some generalities that were construed rather irresponsibly; however, his most powerful statement throughout the talk was (Zuckerberg) "I don't know what I could do with the money. I'd just start another social networking site. I kind of like the one I already have."

The raw conviction he has to his cause gives me chills. I'm not convinced he wouldn't do the same if the offer was 1.5B, 2B, etc.

I think Thiel put it well when he stated "the best entrepreneurs, like Zuckerberg, have a definitive view about the future and plan for it". It doesn't have as much to do with luck as it does focus, conviction, and ultimately the drive to change the world for the better.

I also don't think that the Founder's Fund philosophy had as much to do with his decision to back Zuckerberg as he takes credit for. If you're looking in the face of the next Franklin or Jobs - the decision becomes apparent that you (in Thiel's own words) "just don't fuck it up".