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> OpenAI is worth many multiples of that.

How?

Because they recently issued shares at a price many multiples of that, and people bought them. How else would you define financial worth?

I would use your number adjusted by some demand elasticity curve.

The "back-of-the-napkin" only has enough room to estimate based on recently issued share price. Seems reasonable to me.

Sure, for napkin level math you can go with this, and multiply by some simple multiplier, I like 70%.

Does speculation equal worth?